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Thread: Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

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    Re: Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

    Wiseone has got it right that Iran has many ways to mess with the 2 mile wide shipping lanes through the Strait. We thought Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan would all be a walk in the park but it didn't work out that way. We're learning that asymmetric warfare doesn't fit into our battle plans and strategic maneuvering. If they manage to keep using anti-ship mines, suicide speedboats, torpedoes and missiles they could mess it up for awhile and that's all it would take to send the markets off. Everyone keeps telling me how logically the market has nothing to fear and I keep saying the markets aren't completely logical or they would've never invested in all those mortgage backed CDS's, causing the recession. They're crazy greedy and half based on illogical emotions, gut feelings, hunch's and plain old shrewd manipulating.
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    Re: Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

    Quote Originally Posted by grip View Post
    Wiseone has got it right that Iran has many ways to mess with the 2 mile wide shipping lanes through the Strait. We thought Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan would all be a walk in the park but it didn't work out that way. We're learning that asymmetric warfare doesn't fit into our battle plans and strategic maneuvering. If they manage to keep using anti-ship mines, suicide speedboats, torpedoes and missiles they could mess it up for awhile and that's all it would take to send the markets off. Everyone keeps telling me how logically the market has nothing to fear and I keep saying the markets aren't completely logical or they would've never invested in all those mortgage backed CDS's, causing the recession. They're crazy greedy and half based on illogical emotions, gut feelings, hunch's and plain old shrewd manipulating.
    While there will surely be a spike, it will be short lived. Saudia Arabia has already stated that hey have the capacity, and would use it, if Iran stopped exporting oil.

    I would also like to see how long Iran can go without their imported gasoline.

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    Re: Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

    1. we can't afford a war with Iran, and we certainly can't afford occupation and regime change. i wonder if the hawks have considered how much more they'll have to pay in taxes if the war that they all seem to want actually occurs.

    2. this crisis will mostly serve to jack up the price of oil, delivering more money to investors from the pockets of the shrinking middle class. then investors can panic because consumers "unexpectedly" reduced consumption of other goods and services.

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    Re: Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    1. we can't afford a war with Iran, and we certainly can't afford occupation and regime change. i wonder if the hawks have considered how much more they'll have to pay in taxes if the war that they all seem to want actually occurs.

    2. this crisis will mostly serve to jack up the price of oil, delivering more money to investors from the pockets of the shrinking middle class. then investors can panic because consumers "unexpectedly" reduced consumption of other goods and services.
    Sounds to me like someone should start an oil trading group that offers investment opportunities for the middle class.

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    Re: Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    While there will surely be a spike, it will be short lived. Saudia Arabia has already stated that hey have the capacity, and would use it, if Iran stopped exporting oil.

    I would also like to see how long Iran can go without their imported gasoline.
    I didn't say there wasn't any flexibility in the oil supply but again you're looking at a month or more before the Saudis can ramp up their production and that's getting close to their current infrastructures capacity. Just because someone has the reserves doesn't mean the wells and equipment to get at it are currently available. I think there will be certain countries that produce Venezuela and others that purchase China that might along with certain market investors play games with the supply in order to gain advantages, especially at a time when we're vulnerable.

    And Iran's mullahs would probably like to go back to the days of mosques, tents and camels. It's their westernized youth that might rebel eventually but they'd be too scared at first and I didn't see the Taliban who have to walk everywhere give up or the Iraqi insurgents. Don't think for a moment that the US is almighty and can't be crippled. Mother nature had our President flying over New Orleans while the people suffered and couldn't do squat at first. Here's what your local gas prices might look like if all out War breaks loose in the ME...

    Attachment 67120995
    Einstein, "science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind."

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    Re: Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

    Iran could not close the strait for days. If they started mining it, the US would strike (iirc, this was made very clear). They could keep up some harrassing fire from land, but not for long.

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    Re: Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    1. we can't afford a war with Iran, and we certainly can't afford occupation and regime change. i wonder if the hawks have considered how much more they'll have to pay in taxes if the war that they all seem to want actually occurs.

    2. this crisis will mostly serve to jack up the price of oil, delivering more money to investors from the pockets of the shrinking middle class. then investors can panic because consumers "unexpectedly" reduced consumption of other goods and services.
    Sounds like it's time to open up domestic drilling.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

    Quote Originally Posted by MaggieD View Post
    I said to myself, "Oops. Shoulda' paid more attention in geography class." But as I looked at it, I thought, "Where does the Caspian Sea go?" I'm probably having a blonde moment, but how would they get the oil out of there? I see what Wiseone's posted above, and I'm figuring, then, it's got to be pipelines...but if that post is correct, that's not an option. (Trying to learn here...was your contention that the Caspian Sea allowed them to access pipelines?)

    Here's an interesting take:



    Don't expect an Iranian oil crisis - The Term Sheet: Fortune's deals blog Term Sheet
    It's called an, "oil tanker".

    Kazakhstan utilizes the largest*oil tankers on the Caspian Sea****

    And the oil can be sent to Russia.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    Iran could not close the strait for days. If they started mining it, the US would strike (iirc, this was made very clear). They could keep up some harrassing fire from land, but not for long.
    So I guess when Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Martin Dempsey said, "Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz for a period of time" he meant for a few days?

    And so what if the US strikes after they've mined it, how does that affect what they've already done. We'd have to strike ahead of time and even that wouldn't necessarily stop them completely at first. I think a lot of people are basing these assumptions of how well we'll do on stopping everything by the two previous initial Iraqi engagements and I hope they're correct but it might not be that everything is foreseeable. We don't have the troops available or assets in place to completely annihilate them instantly though the 5th Fleet, Diego Garcia and bases out of Turkey and other ME areas are easily going to allow us a devastating first strike capability. It's the ensuing mess that devolves and possibly spreads afterwards that we're wondering how to control.
    Einstein, "science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind."

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    Re: Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS

    Quote Originally Posted by grip View Post
    So I guess when Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Martin Dempsey said, "Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz for a period of time" he meant for a few days?
    Yes, next question.

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