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Thread: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

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    U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    From Bloomberg.com:

    U.S. employers added more workers to payrolls than forecast in December and the jobless rate declined to an almost three-year low, showing that the labor market gained momentum heading into 2012.
    The 200,000 increase last month followed a revised 100,000 gain in November that was smaller than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed in Washington. The median projection in a Bloomberg News survey called for a December gain of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.5 percent, the lowest since February 2009, while hours worked and earnings climbed.
    U.S. Unemployment Falls to 8.5% as Jobs Gain - Bloomberg

    The complete report can be found at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/arch...t_01062012.pdf

    This report is the latest evidence that the economy is gaining a little strength. Should these trends persist, they will have implications for the 2012 Presidential election, increasing prospects for the President's re-election.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Good news. Probably still somewhat of a holiday effect, like last year, but good news.
    (avatar by Thomas Nast)

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Available workforce population increased by 143k, active available to work decreased by 50k, employed increased by 175k, unemployed decreased by 250k, and 194k left the workforce.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    this bodes well for the "unexpected" drinking game.


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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    Available workforce population increased by 143k, active available to work decreased by 50k, employed increased by 175k, unemployed decreased by 250k, and 194k left the workforce.

    hmmm. I am a simply guy so let's see if I have this straight....Last report we heard that some 300K dropped out of the work force, this report shows an additional 200K dropped out, and over the two we added about 300K jobs...Now I am no math wizzard but...

    500,000 dropped out
    - 300,000 jobs added
    _________
    200,000 Net Loss


    Looks like some real funny business is going on here.


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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    This is good news but I don't think I am going to get to excited just yet. This could be a holiday effect but what is truly novel is that the U-6 rate dropped a few ticks as well.

    Unemployment Rate Drop Is for Real - Real Time Economics - WSJ
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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    hmmm. I am a simply guy so let's see if I have this straight....Last report we heard that some 300K dropped out of the work force, this report shows an additional 200K dropped out, and over the two we added about 300K jobs...Now I am no math wizzard but...

    500,000 dropped out
    - 300,000 jobs added
    _________
    200,000 Net Loss


    Looks like some real funny business is going on here.


    j-mac
    If there was a net loss in jobs, why did the unemployment rate fall? In other words how can less people be employed if there are less jobs in the economy?

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Wiseone View Post
    If there was a net loss in jobs, why did the unemployment rate fall? In other words how can less people be employed if there are less jobs in the economy?

    See, that's the fishy thing here...You tell me how it is a jobs gain when 500K people drop out of the numbers counted and you only add 300K jobs?


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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    See, that's the fishy thing here...You tell me how it is a jobs gain when 500K people drop out of the numbers counted and you only add 300K jobs?


    j-mac
    The number of people that stopped looking for work outnumbered those that started looking for more work. The "new jobs", the net gains mainly reported, are being being offset directly by new job entrants( population expansion ) and those that gave up looking for work returning to look. Because of these factors, the unemployment level dropped.

    Please note, they changed the calculation again with this report. The last 4 years of unemployment numbers have actually been adjusted up.

    And, they will be making a further modifications that will affect numbers going forward.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Aren't the people who leave the workforce calculated into the figure of jobs added? I thought that itself was the net figure.

    It's the people who stop looking for work that aren't calculated into into the unemployment figures.
    (avatar by Thomas Nast)

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