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U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

What should be noted is that since 1994 Discouraged workers have not been counted as unemployed in the official unemployment number whereas prior discouraged workers were. In addition a reduction in the labor force should be of concern to everyone especially with a growing population.

With respect to discouraged workers, one can reference the U-4 alternative measure in Table A-15 of the Employment Situation Report. Were discouraged workers counted, the unemployment rate would be reported at 9.1%.

Also, not everyone who is leaving the labor force is a discouraged worker. The Baby Boom generation is slowly retiring. Moreover, in what might be an important secular trend, women are leaving the labor force to bolster their educational credentials. One article on that trend can be found at: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/business/young-women-go-back-to-school-instead-of-work.html.

Finally, there is a higher degree of structural unemployment (a bad thing) than during recent recessions. There are no quick fixes for structural unemployment.
 
Remember: the info the BLS gave us this morning is for the period of the second week in November thru the first week in December -- that's a lot of holiday retail jobs .. paying minimum wage.

Many of those who were making closer to a living wage before they lost their job are obviously still suffering, taking less-paying jobs both full- and part- time.

Thus purchasing power doesn't change all that much, as people drop off the unemployment insurance dole .. for a more or less equal amount of private sector pay.

Then, when the holiday jobs end, back on unemployment they go, only receiving less than before due to their more recent lower paying job .. and poverty worsens.

It doesn't matter that a relative handful are temporarily working in a holiday economy.

What matters is that the tens of millions of off-shored real and permanent jobs have yet to return home where they belong.
 
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With respect to discouraged workers, one can reference the U-4 alternative measure in Table A-15 of the Employment Situation Report. Were discouraged workers counted, the unemployment rate would be reported at 9.1%.

Also, not everyone who is leaving the labor force is a discouraged worker. The Baby Boom generation is slowly retiring. Moreover, in what might be an important secular trend, women are leaving the labor force to bolster their educational credentials. One article on that trend can be found at: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/business/young-women-go-back-to-school-instead-of-work.html.

Finally, there is a higher degree of structural unemployment (a bad thing) than during recent recessions. There are no quick fixes for structural unemployment.

Exactly correct

Unemployed + Discouraged
2008 8145 7887 8217 8043 8795 8998 9411 9831 9968 10567 11152 11941
2009 12783 13591 14074 14536 15297 15520 15442 15619 15718 16229 16088 16053
2010 16018 16243 16122 16418 15959 15724 15794 15845 15783 15855 16386 15711
2011 14912 14771 14549 14781 14714 15006 15027 14897 14934 14726 14419 14042

2009 154185 154424 154100 154453 154805 154754 154457 154362 153940 154022 153795 153172
Labor Force 2011 153250 153302 153392 153420 153700 153409 153358 153674 154004 154057 153937 153887

UE 2011 w/o DW-U-3 9.08% 8.97% 8.88% 8.99% 9.04% 9.14% 9.07% 9.06% 9.02% 8.93% 8.65% 8.51%

UE 2011 with DW 9.73% 9.64% 9.48% 9.63% 9.57% 9.78% 9.80% 9.69% 9.70% 9.56% 9.37% 9.12%
 
good news...

From my perspective, it is good news. I like to see a growing economy, employment, and incomes with price stability. That such developments have political ramifications in Election Years, is largely irrelevant from my perspective. Sustained macroeconomic improvement is in the national interest and it enhances the national welfare. Therefore, in my view (and others could have different opinions), economic growth trumps political convenience or inconvenience (depending on the electoral outcome one might prefer).
 
No, that's not what I said. A lot of people retired, and a lot of people started attending college or trade school. And a lot of people also decided that it was too much work to look for work.


:lmao: Is that the best you got? It's too much work to look for work? :lmao:

Wow, that does more to damage your "President" than help him in this argument.

j-mac
 
What matters is that the tens of millions of off-shored real and permanent jobs have yet to return home where they belong.

That's one reflection of structural unemployment. Addressing that issue will require, among other things, a better educated workforce, increased competitiveness vis-a-vis the nation's competitors, etc. Unfortunately, the investment, education, policies, business practices, etc., necessary to reduce structural unemployment are not short-term in nature.
 
From my perspective, it is good news. I like to see a growing economy, employment, and incomes with price stability. That such developments have political ramifications in Election Years, is largely irrelevant from my perspective. Sustained macroeconomic improvement is in the national interest and it enhances the national welfare. Therefore, in my view (and others could have different opinions), economic growth trumps political convenience or inconvenience (depending on the electoral outcome one might prefer).
i would tend to agree, more people working, more people on the tax rolls, less people needing public assistance, yeah, i'd say that is a good thing.
 
Right, and U-4, like U-3, dropped by .2% in December.

I still stand by my longstanding argument that we wont be in full recovery mode until the unemployment rate jumps.
 
No, that's not what I said. A lot of people retired, and a lot of people started attending college or trade school. And a lot of people also decided that it was too much work to look for work.

Too much work to look for work, I like that!

Sure times are hard but people need to stop looking for a hand out and at least keep trying. Success is not assured but the opportunity to succeed is, that is the promise of America. If we don't have that then what do we have?
 
i would tend to agree, more people working, more people on the tax rolls, less people needing public assistance, yeah, i'd say that is a good thing.


If, and only "IF" it is indeed a genuine increase in employment, and not these fake numbers manipulated to give Obama a boost.


j-mac
 
If, and only "IF" it is indeed a genuine increase in employment, and not these fake numbers manipulated to give Obama a boost.


j-mac
the numbers are what they are, more people working is a good thing.
 
The numbers are not manipulated...they are done the same way they've always been done.

Technically, no, the report methodology is always changing, and the most recent change actually revised the last 4 years of unemployment numbers up by about .2%.

And next month is another methodology change. You can read about it in the OP link to the bls report.
 
Too much work to look for work, I like that! Sure times are hard but people need to stop looking for a hand out and at least keep trying. Success is not assured but the opportunity to succeed is, that is the promise of America. If we don't have that then what do we have?

Easier to protest. :)
 
There are more than just so-called "discouraged workers" who want to work and can't find work.

Here's the main BLS table: Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age.

Note the 6.385 million people who currently want a job not part of the "unemployed" figure, people the BLS says is way underestimated due to being unable to find many of these people because of their transient and homeless nature, all who are classified as "Not In Labor Force". This is a 60% figure they say, so the real number is closer to 10.642 million.

When you rightly factor these people into the unemployment rate equation, the true unemployment rate is revealed: 14.43%.

It's important for us to face the 14.43% more accurate reality, as that gives us a more honest gut-check reaction to the matter.

And remember last month's "official" rate of 8.6%? Notice it got revised upward to 8.7%.

Lower-paying new jobs compared to the higher paying previously lost jobs need also be considered.

Anyone who thinks either liberal Dems or conservative Repubs care about any of the associated suffering is sadly mistaken.

Until very serious effort is made to return the tens of millions of off-shored jobs to America, there is no "action speaks louder than words" substantive proof that the powers that be in Washington care anything more than keeping their job, retiring on a government pension, and kow-towing for personal financial gain to the off-shoring international corporate consortiums -- the rogue elephants of capitalism -- who are the new rising global power.
 
If, and only "IF" it is indeed a genuine increase in employment, and not these fake numbers manipulated to give Obama a boost.


j-mac

The numbers are reasonable. In fact, they are supported by various private sector measures: Elements of the various consumer confidence measures, Gallup's own employment survey, etc.
 
the numbers are what they are, more people working is a good thing.


That's the point...I don't believe that there are more people working, I think it is all a shell game.

j-mac
 
That's the point...I don't believe that there are more people working, I think it is all a shell game.

j-mac
and you are entitled to your opinion
 
This is extremely good news -there has now been 22 straight months of private sector job growth. And the experts are predicting better news in the near future. Bad news for those Obama haters - those suffering from ODS.

YearJanFebMarAprMayhJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2009-841-721-787-773-326-438-287-215-213-250-34-102
2010-42-21144229486593110109143128167
201194261219241997517372220134120212
 
This is extremely good news -there has now been 22 straight months of private sector job growth. And the experts are predicting better news in the near future. Bad news for those Obama haters - those suffering from ODS.

News Headlines
The pressing question, then, after a positive four-month run in the market is sustainability. Expectations for today's report already had been strong, but the primary concern is whether the hirings were mostly seasonal and would fade once the economy gets back to tangling with the unresolved questions of European debt crisis contagion and the political stalemate in Washington.

Some economists warned that the steadying in markets came about because Europe's debt woes have faded from the headlines, a trend unlikely to last.

"With the boost from these temporary factors fading and concerns in Europe resurfacing, we expect the US economy to slow in the second half of the year," Neil Dutta, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a note. "Consider the stronger data we've seen a reversion to the mean as opposed to the start of a new trend."
 
That's one reflection of structural unemployment. Addressing that issue will require, among other things, a better educated workforce, increased competitiveness vis-a-vis the nation's competitors, etc. Unfortunately, the investment, education, policies, business practices, etc., necessary to reduce structural unemployment are not short-term in nature.
That's one suggested resolution.

From this thread -- http://www.debatepolitics.com/economics/112844-rogue-elephants-capitalism.html#post1059958926 -- here's another:
Now to any thoughts of replacing capitalism with socialism or the like, please exclude them from this discussion. Socialism will develop naturally enough as a last-resort reaction to letting the rogue elephants run deadly rampant, until they poison the philosophical well for the vast majority as to the value of capitalism as a system. Those who don't want to see this happen, I strongly urge you to help us find a solution to the capitalist rogue elephant problem.

And also this:
With regard to fixing the current mess, it is generally being posited that the unethical rogue elephant behavior of American corporations be address via a comprehensive combination of stiff tax penalties for off-shorers, tax increases on American company foreign divisions, a tremendous reduction in foreign work visas, making it unlawful to in-source workers contracted through foreign manpower agencies, firmly enforcing our borders and resolutely make it impossible for the 20 million illegal immigrants to remain here, tax incentives to American start-up companies replacing foreign divisions, enacting tariffs to level the global playing field, legislatively requiring compliance with the ethical maxim of "if you make it abroad, you sell it abroad", compelling both management and labor to work together in greater consideration of all, etc. .. would do the trick.

And, of course, some say do nothing:
But those in opposition to these measures say they would greatly hinder corporate and stock performance, also really harming Americans as well, a lot like removing steroids from baseball would greatly reduce exciting home runs and 100 mph fastballs, and we'd never see another record broken again, while the game dulls to mediocrity, making it even worse for the fans .. who stop supporting the game, only it would be substantively more disastrous if similar happened to American capitalism, maybe recession-creating disastrous.

But I can't for a moment support what BHO presented in his last SOTUA, that we must become even more neurotic in our perfectionistic performance, from grade-school on, simply to futilely compete for jobs at the desired American standard of living, jobs which we'll only immediately or eventually lose to wage-slaves abroad.
 
From my perspective, it is good news. I like to see a growing economy, employment, and incomes with price stability. That such developments have political ramifications in Election Years, is largely irrelevant from my perspective. Sustained macroeconomic improvement is in the national interest and it enhances the national welfare. Therefore, in my view (and others could have different opinions), economic growth trumps political convenience or inconvenience (depending on the electoral outcome one might prefer).

It is good news, in that it is stronger than expected, and of course, in that jobs were added.
It's not great news, b/c although it was stronger than expected, it's still not strong enough, the pace has to increase to recover all the jobs lost thru the great recession.



btw, here's a good npr article, with lots of updates. lt unemployed is about the same. discouraged workers is smaller. total workforce is still smaller than the beginning of 2009, we still have not recovered all the jobs lost.


Jobless Rate Dips To 8.5 Percent, 200,000 Jobs Added To Payrolls : The Two-Way : NPR
 
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