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Thread: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Well, not quite. The dynamic of the early 80's was a rapidly increasing LFPR, so the gap takes on a bit of a different perspective. While it was well below the mean, the participation rate was going UP then.

    The difference then to now is stark, primarily in that we have diverging slopes. One says its getting better, while the other says it is getting worse. It is not only a flaw in the formula used, but more importantly, it is a number, LFPR, generated by government. Unlike the number of employed, which is essentially generated by payrolls, most of them private, there is no entity other than government which decides the LFPR ..... "Poof" .. here it is !
    The decrease in LFPR has been decreasing for awhile now. It's no suprise. Boomers are nearing retirement age and it's been something discussed for a long time.

    Notice: Data not available: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

    Those that are are nearing retirement age are making the decision to get out of a bad labor market. It's just accelerating long term trends.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by FilmFestGuy View Post
    There are a multitude of sources out there (include Eric Cantor) who estimate that about 10,000 boomers are retiring each day.

    Thus, over two months, that would be around 600,000 - so 500,000 seems very reasonable to me.
    Not discounting it, but that estimate is based on turning 65, not an actual retirement index, of which I do not believe there is one.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    I wasn't born.....but what does inflation (a component of the misery index) have to do with unemployment? The unemployment argument has nothing whatsoever to do with inflation it has to do with the jobless rate. The late 70's and early 80's are comparable with now regarding long term unemployment.
    The misery index is a combination of inflation and unemployment. Obama inherited a recession that was ending and a misery index under 8. The 81-81 recession had a misery index of over 19 so which one affected the American people the most?

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    The decrease in LFPR has been decreasing for awhile now. It's no suprise. Boomers are nearing retirement age and it's been something discussed for a long time.

    Notice: Data not available: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

    Those that are are nearing retirement age are making the decision to get out of a bad labor market. It's just accelerating long term trends.
    If they have a job, they aren't going to go anywhere while they can still get paid.

    The IT department here is dominated by people in their 60s and 70s, mainly because you can't find a good mainframe programmer these days.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    Not discounting it, but that estimate is based on turning 65, not an actual retirement index, of which I do not believe there is one.
    True...but in a bad labor market you will see people opt for retirment rather than look for another job after getting laid off (if that's the case) or even decide to retire rather than face squeezes employers are putting on employees.


    I think it's pretty safe to say that it's accelerating a long term trend. I'll go as far to say this is very good for younger workers because it will end up opening up positions....of course now we'll be dealing with the entitlement conscequences of an aging population.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    If they have a job, they aren't going to go anywhere while they can still get paid.

    The IT department here is dominated by people in their 60s and 70s, mainly because you can't find a good mainframe programmer these days.
    Of course...but if faced with pay cuts or extra hours or potential layoffs people are opting for retirement.

    At my office I'm seeing a lot of boomers making that decision. We have a lot of planned retirements coming up in the next couple of years.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    The misery index is a combination of inflation and unemployment. Obama inherited a recession that was ending and a misery index under 8. The 81-81 recession had a misery index of over 19 so which one affected the American people the most?
    The unemployment rate is not a measurement of how one is affected, it's a measurement of of employment. When you look at unemployment rates now is comparable to the 1980s. We're not seeing people squeezed by inflation and high unemployment I'm not arguing that. I'm arguing that when you have long term unemployment you'll see the numbers skewed which has nothing to do with purchasing power of individuals.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    The unemployment rate is not a measurement of how one is affected, it's a measurement of of employment. When you look at unemployment rates now is comparable to the 1980s. We're not seeing people squeezed by inflation and high unemployment I'm not arguing that. I'm arguing that when you have long term unemployment you'll see the numbers skewed which has nothing to do with purchasing power of individuals.
    Are discouraged workers unemployed? Prior to 1994 they were counted in the official unemployment number, why not now? The unemployment rate in the 81-82 recession were worse than this recession.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Are discouraged workers unemployed? Prior to 1994 they were counted in the official unemployment number, why not now? The unemployment rate in the 81-82 recession were worse than this recession.
    Well....if you count discouraged workers then no, it's not worse than now right?
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    Well....if you count discouraged workers then no, it's not worse than now right?
    Yes, it was worse than right now as the misery index is how the economy affects individuals. High inflation, high unemployment were a bigger drag on the economy than low almost no inflation and high unemployment. People were paying 17.5% interest rates on their home mortgages on 1981 and losing their jobs left and right. How does that compare to today?

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