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Thread: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    We are gaining jobs. The unemployment % takes into account labor force and available jobs. The number of jobs created per month has nothing to do with labor force.

    I'm not saying your wrong in saying that those number DO matter. The fact is, people are aware of those numbers and nobody is touting it's "Morning in America". We're working from a huge hole facing a lot of uncertainty so the fact we're seeing the number of jobs created each month increase....is good news.
    it has to be put into perspective, it has been 2 1/2 years after the end of the recession and we still have more unemployed, fewer employed, and a lower labor than when Obama took office. That is a concern as cost to generate those job increases, 4.5 trillion dollars. It does seem that 15.1 trillion in debt is something many cannot comprehend but that is more than the yearly GDP of the country. Bush left the country a 10.6 trillion dollar debt and that debt is now up 4.5 trillion dollars. That isn't good long term for America.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    That is not number manipulation.
    Actually it is number manipulation. Done by a formula that is construed to create a false result when there are severe fluctuations in numbers, as we have had in the last 3 years, that being the decline of the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR).

    Give this a look:



    That far right drop shows a drop in number of people counted as the work force. It has dropped precipitously under Obama. You can blame the Recession, which is fine, but regardless, the formula used to calculate this 8.5% is artificially skewered when there are radical changes in the workforce, essentially presenting a false number. The dotted line represents the mean since 1980. When calculated against the mean, our unemployment rate is a more accurate 11.4%

    Here is a look at a more realistic measure, if we hold the work force rate at the mean:



    For the most part, the implied numbers, those arrived at by adjusting for the flaws created by the Work Force fluctuations, mirror the actual reported numbers with regard to trends. This is because most changes in the Work Force have been more gradual. However, when looking at the top graph, you see the precipitous drop that has happened in the last 3 years. When looking at the bottom chart, we see an actual fallacy in the numbers, in that the actual (implied) employment situation is trending worse in the past 3 years, while the reported employment says it is getting better.

    While December was essentially a break-even month, and the numbers are improved for the year, the trend is still that we are stagnant, as adding 1.6 million jobs in a year is actually just at or below what is considered break-even for any year, due to population growth.

    more: Real Jobless Rate Is 11.4% With Realistic Labor Force Participation Rate | ZeroHedge
    Last edited by Eighty Deuce; 01-06-12 at 01:56 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    I was responding to a post by someone that called it manipulation. Context matters. I was arguing against the idea that numbers are being intentially skewed in order to show a lower unemployment rate, not that seasonally adjusted benchmarks never change.

    Bologna!

    It won't surprise anyone that as of December, the real implied unemployment rate was 11.4% (final chart) - basically where it has been ever since 2009 - and at 2.9% delta to reported, represents the widest divergence to reported data since the early 1980s. And because we know this will be the next question, extending this lunacy, America will officially have no unemployed, when the Labor Force Participation rate hits 58.5%, which should be just before the presidential election.

    Real Jobless Rate Is 11.4% With Realistic Labor Force Participation Rate | ZeroHedge
    And just for those partisans that will no doubt say that this is just unreliable opinion...

    Typically, I try to tie the beginning of Wonkbook to the news. But today, the most important sentence isn't a report on something that just happened, but a fresh look at something that's been happening for the last three years. In particular, it's this sentence by the Financial Times' Ed Luce, who writes, "According to government statistics, if the same number of people were seeking work today as in 2007, the jobless rate would be 11 percent."

    Remember that the unemployment rate is not "how many people don't have jobs?", but "how many people don't have jobs and are actively looking for them?" Let's say you've been looking fruitlessly for five months and realize you've exhausted every job listing in your area. Discouraged, you stop looking, at least for the moment. According to the government, you're no longer unemployed. Congratulations?

    Wonkbook: The real unemployment rate is 11 percent - The Washington Post
    The numbers are pure, unadulterated BS! and anyone doing their rah, rah cheering for Obama based on them are dupes.

    j-mac
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Actually it is number manipulation. Done by a formula that is construed to create a false result when there are severe fluctuations in numbers, as we have had in the last 3 years, that being the decline of the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR).
    It is not number manipulation it's a system that is flawed when facing long term unemployment and disporportionately high number of discouraged workers. The last time we have a recession even comparable to now is the 1970's and the gap (using your last graph) between real and reported unemployment was even higher than it is now.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    it has to be put into perspective, it has been 2 1/2 years after the end of the recession and we still have more unemployed, fewer employed, and a lower labor than when Obama took office. That is a concern as cost to generate those job increases, 4.5 trillion dollars. It does seem that 15.1 trillion in debt is something many cannot comprehend but that is more than the yearly GDP of the country. Bush left the country a 10.6 trillion dollar debt and that debt is now up 4.5 trillion dollars. That isn't good long term for America.
    Of course not, no one is arguing the long term economic stagnation is good for America or that massive deficit spending is good.

    The disagreement is that any good news has to be discounted because we haven't completely rebounded over night.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    The numbers are pure, unadulterated BS! and anyone doing their rah, rah cheering for Obama based on them are dupes.
    Like I mentioned....they are not BS...the measurement is flawed.....if we include those that are not actively looking for a job the new norm for unemployment would be higher even during good times.

    There's two methods...you can either always include everyone even if they aren't actively searching skewing the numbers higher than what unemployment would normally be....or you can discount anyone not actively which is accurate in a good job market but is skewed lower during a long term bad job market.

    This is not a new issue....I remember having this discussion in an economics class like a decade ago.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    It is not number manipulation it's a system that is flawed when facing long term unemployment and disporportionately high number of discouraged workers. The last time we have a recession even comparable to now is the 1970's and the gap (using your last graph) between real and reported unemployment was even higher than it is now.
    Sorry but how old were you in 1981-82 when there was a 20 misery index? How is this economy worse than that one?

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    It is not number manipulation it's a system that is flawed when facing long term unemployment and disporportionately high number of discouraged workers. The last time we have a recession even comparable to now is the 1970's and the gap (using your last graph) between real and reported unemployment was even higher than it is now.
    Well, not quite. The dynamic of the early 80's was a rapidly increasing LFPR, so the gap takes on a bit of a different perspective. While it was well below the mean, the participation rate was going UP then.

    The difference then to now is stark, primarily in that we have diverging slopes. One says its getting better, while the other says it is getting worse. It is not only a flaw in the formula used, but more importantly, it is a number, LFPR, generated by government. Unlike the number of employed, which is essentially generated by payrolls, most of them private, there is no entity other than government which decides the LFPR ..... "Poof" .. here it is !

    In essence, they can pee on your leg, and tell you its raining. They are doing it now.
    Last edited by Eighty Deuce; 01-06-12 at 02:36 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Sorry but how old were you in 1981-82 when there was a 20 misery index? How is this economy worse than that one?
    I wasn't born.....but what does inflation (a component of the misery index) have to do with unemployment? The unemployment argument has nothing whatsoever to do with inflation it has to do with the jobless rate. The late 70's and early 80's are comparable with now regarding long term unemployment.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    :lmao: Is that the best you got? It's too much work to look for work? :lmao:

    Wow, that does more to damage your "President" than help him in this argument.

    j-mac
    There are a multitude of sources out there (include Eric Cantor) who estimate that about 10,000 boomers are retiring each day.

    Thus, over two months, that would be around 600,000 - so 500,000 seems very reasonable to me.

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