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Thread: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    From the same source:
    Which can be rationalized as the data shows how private companies took over once the bubble got going. Fannie and Freddie could have ceased to exist by about 2003-2004, and that bubble was still gonna go and then blow !!

    But I do believe they understate to role of FF. And their own report notes that their views are contrary on this matter to many other well-known economists.

    Did we have a moral hazard or not ?

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    CDO's did not create, or enlarge, the bubble. The bubble was every home buyer and what they were willing to pay. Whatever motivated them to buy, instead of rent ... well, you will have to think on that
    Why do you say that? The availability of credit of credit played a very large part.

    That credit was fueled by the purchase of CDO's. That purchase was fueled by the fact it was a AAA rated security that paid out much more than any other AAA rated security. Pension funds and other types of large scale institutional investors that are limited too buying a majority of AAA rated securities jumped into the housing market and pumped trillions and trillions of capital into the market.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    CDO's did not create, or enlarge, the bubble. The bubble was every home buyer and what they were willing to pay. Whatever motivated them to buy, instead of rent ... well, you will have to think on that.
    Mispriced CDO's can have a blanketing effect, or add fuel to a fire. Cheap CDO's that result from improper valuation of risk (in this case, high risk derivatives were trading at low risk prices) lower the cost of lending, not to be confused with cost of borrowing. The majority of toxic debt was created outside your typical financing realm.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    I have to run, but will elaborate. Clearly I believe that government and FF got this one going. I also do not believe that such as Cuomo ever invisioned it as it worked out. Or Bush for that matter.

    But once the horse was out of the barn, they could not put it back in. Too many people making too much money. I certainly blame Bush for not exercising whatever leadership was necessary to stop it.

    The US also went through 15 years of an artificial economy, which masked to real erosion of our economic foundations. We were ripe for bubbles, and nary a poltician out there was going to do much to stop it.

    Now I blame what I feel is a cover-up by the same politicians. Blame Wall Street. Blame "greed". "Just don't blame us". ;roll:

    Government is more the problem than the solution.
    All's you're doing is trying to equate correlation with causation. When F&F were expanding so rapidly there was no housing bubble and no subprime crisis.

    The crisis was caused by insufficient regulation of private lenders who were vastly overleveraged and who had virtually no lending standards. It was caused by a lack of regulation of the derivatives market, which allowed mortgages to be broken up into tranches and sold. It was caused by lack of regulation of credit ratings agencies, who gave junk-level mortgage backed securities AAA ratings. And it was caused by insufficient consumer protection laws, which resulted in unsophisticated buyers signing on to horrific mortgages that they didn't understand.

    In short, the crisis was almost entirely the result of INSUFFICIENT government regulation. So yes, it was government's fault, but it was government doing too little and not too much. That is the conclusion of virtually every investigation that I've seen of the financial meltdown.
    Last edited by AdamT; 01-11-12 at 05:47 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    All's you're doing is trying to equate correlation with causation. When F&F were expanding so rapidly there was no housing bubble and no subprime crisis.......
    LOL .. the government's own watchdog, in 2006, said that FF grew ninefold from 1991 to 2006, and that there were problematic issues inherent with such rapid growth. Link already provided. So tell us all which housing bubble you are talking about

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    LOL .. the government's own watchdog, in 2006, said that FF grew ninefold from 1991 to 2006, and that there were problematic issues inherent with such rapid growth. Link already provided. So tell us all which housing bubble you are talking about
    The housing bubble took place between '02 and '06 -- not '91 to '06.

    Still noting correlation? Can you describe the mechanism that you think created the problem?

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    The housing bubble took place between '02 and '06 -- not '91 to '06.
    Let's give it a look, shall we ?

    http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/united_states.png

    united_states[1].jpg

    It begins in 1998, and is over 30% "inflated" by 2002. Try again.

    Still noting correlation? Can you describe the mechanism that you think created the problem?
    Been posted a bunch of times. Is there a button here so that I can type in braille ?

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    Let's give it a look, shall we ?

    http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/united_states.png

    united_states[1].jpg

    It begins in 1998, and is over 30% "inflated" by 2002. Try again.
    Okay, I'll play. Your claim is that F&F's expansion since 1991 was 100% responsible for the housing bubble. But from 1991 to 1998, the price of homes was actually FALLING. That's seven years. Then, for the next nine years housing prices started to take off. How does your theory explain the fact that for 44% of the expansion period, home prices fell and did not rise?

    Been posted a bunch of times. Is there a button here so that I can type in braille ?
    Maybe I need to borrow a pair of wingnut goggles, because I've yet to see you post an explanation that goes beyond mere correlation ... and as noted above, even correlation doesn't line up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Again, we have people. And they should do this. I think J misses my real objection. it is not that J or anyone has to list every single objectionable regulation. It is the argument that them being costly alone is reason to end regulations. It has to be, as you suggest, a balance between cost and need, and sometimes it may well be even more costly to get rid of a particular regulation. but without someone, not memebers of a political discussion forum, researching whihc specific regulations are or are not needed, we are more than likely to make a few mistakes.
    Oh, well I wasn't aware that you were trying to help me not make mistakes...by all means then, I will immediately do the job of congressional staff so that we on a message board don't make any mistakes, fore millions of homeowners depend on this lone truckers opinion....


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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Here we go again, weekly jobless claims rise

    New Weekly Claims for Unemployment Benefits Jump to 399,000
    This in conjuction with Retail sales increase in December of .1% shows once again the Obama economic results to be a disaster.

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