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Thread: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by coolwalker View Post
    Distorted facts, always distorted facts from this Administration...never a mention of those who fell waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off the chart because unemployment ran out. Typical.
    Discouraged workers in thousands by month, 945,000 discouraged workers in the Month of December dropped off the unemployment roles because of unemployment running out or they just stopped looking for a job


    2008 467 396 401 412 400 420 461 381 467 484 608 642
    2009 734 731 685 740 792 793 796 758 706 808 861 929
    2010 1065 1204 994 1197 1083 1207 1185 1110 1209 1219 1282 1318
    2011 993 1020 921 989 822 982 1119 977 1037 967 1096 945

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    So, 500K people retired or enrolled in collage in the last two months? Bull!


    j-mac
    No, that's not what I said. A lot of people retired, and a lot of people started attending college or trade school. And a lot of people also decided that it was too much work to look for work.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by coolwalker View Post
    Distorted facts, always distorted facts from this Administration...never a mention of those who fell waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off the chart because unemployment ran out. Typical.
    Is there something this administration is doing other administrations have not done in regards to recording unemployment?
    A man without fear is a fool, a man that succumbs to his fear is a coward and a brave man acknowledges fear yet presses on.
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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    While an improving unemployment number is always a great talking point for an incumbent President, I think presidential popularity is much more dependent on an overall improving employment picture. Voters aren't encouraged by seeing a statistic on the news improve, they are encouraged when they are gainfully employed and able to earn a sufficient income to provide for their families.

    That said, recent numbers do show a positive shift in trend. Remember that using the same shrinking denominator just months ago, the unemployment number was increasing. Payroll data and jobless claims numbers are showing gains instead of losses.
    "There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Tettsuo View Post
    Is there something this administration is doing other administrations have not done in regards to recording unemployment?
    Prior to 1994 discouraged workers were counted as officially unemployed but changed and since then it has been that way. Discouraged workers are unemployed so when a discouraged worker is eliminated from the unemployment count that improves the percentage. Here are the discouraged workers since 2008 in thousands

    Discouraged workers
    2008 467 396 401 412 400 420 461 381 467 484 608 642
    2009 734 731 685 740 792 793 796 758 706 808 861 929
    2010 1065 1204 994 1197 1083 1207 1185 1110 1209 1219 1282 1318
    2011 993 1020 921 989 822 982 1119 977 1037 967 1096 945

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    From Bloomberg.com:



    U.S. Unemployment Falls to 8.5% as Jobs Gain - Bloomberg

    The complete report can be found at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/arch...t_01062012.pdf

    This report is the latest evidence that the economy is gaining a little strength. Should these trends persist, they will have implications for the 2012 Presidential election, increasing prospects for the President's re-election.
    good news...

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    What should be noted is that since 1994 Discouraged workers have not been counted as unemployed in the official unemployment number whereas prior discouraged workers were. In addition a reduction in the labor force should be of concern to everyone especially with a growing population.
    With respect to discouraged workers, one can reference the U-4 alternative measure in Table A-15 of the Employment Situation Report. Were discouraged workers counted, the unemployment rate would be reported at 9.1%.

    Also, not everyone who is leaving the labor force is a discouraged worker. The Baby Boom generation is slowly retiring. Moreover, in what might be an important secular trend, women are leaving the labor force to bolster their educational credentials. One article on that trend can be found at: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/bu...d-of-work.html.

    Finally, there is a higher degree of structural unemployment (a bad thing) than during recent recessions. There are no quick fixes for structural unemployment.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Remember: the info the BLS gave us this morning is for the period of the second week in November thru the first week in December -- that's a lot of holiday retail jobs .. paying minimum wage.

    Many of those who were making closer to a living wage before they lost their job are obviously still suffering, taking less-paying jobs both full- and part- time.

    Thus purchasing power doesn't change all that much, as people drop off the unemployment insurance dole .. for a more or less equal amount of private sector pay.

    Then, when the holiday jobs end, back on unemployment they go, only receiving less than before due to their more recent lower paying job .. and poverty worsens.

    It doesn't matter that a relative handful are temporarily working in a holiday economy.

    What matters is that the tens of millions of off-shored real and permanent jobs have yet to return home where they belong.
    Last edited by Ontologuy; 01-06-12 at 12:04 PM.
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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    With respect to discouraged workers, one can reference the U-4 alternative measure in Table A-15 of the Employment Situation Report. Were discouraged workers counted, the unemployment rate would be reported at 9.1%.

    Also, not everyone who is leaving the labor force is a discouraged worker. The Baby Boom generation is slowly retiring. Moreover, in what might be an important secular trend, women are leaving the labor force to bolster their educational credentials. One article on that trend can be found at: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/bu...d-of-work.html.

    Finally, there is a higher degree of structural unemployment (a bad thing) than during recent recessions. There are no quick fixes for structural unemployment.
    Exactly correct

    Unemployed + Discouraged
    2008 8145 7887 8217 8043 8795 8998 9411 9831 9968 10567 11152 11941
    2009 12783 13591 14074 14536 15297 15520 15442 15619 15718 16229 16088 16053
    2010 16018 16243 16122 16418 15959 15724 15794 15845 15783 15855 16386 15711
    2011 14912 14771 14549 14781 14714 15006 15027 14897 14934 14726 14419 14042

    2009 154185 154424 154100 154453 154805 154754 154457 154362 153940 154022 153795 153172
    Labor Force 2011 153250 153302 153392 153420 153700 153409 153358 153674 154004 154057 153937 153887

    UE 2011 w/o DW-U-3 9.08% 8.97% 8.88% 8.99% 9.04% 9.14% 9.07% 9.06% 9.02% 8.93% 8.65% 8.51%

    UE 2011 with DW 9.73% 9.64% 9.48% 9.63% 9.57% 9.78% 9.80% 9.69% 9.70% 9.56% 9.37% 9.12%

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    With respect to discouraged workers, one can reference the U-4 alternative measure in Table A-15 of the Employment Situation Report. Were discouraged workers counted, the unemployment rate would be reported at 9.1%.
    Right, and U-4, like U-3, dropped by .2% in December.

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