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Thread: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

  1. #251
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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    I think I need to ask you why you are pursuing excuses for shrinkage of the LFPR that cannot be measured, while ignoring the Occam's Razor (simple and obvious) explanation ?

    The average household lost 20% of its net worth with this recession. A recession caused 100% by government, btw. Not Wall Street. Not predatory lenders. Just plain Government. For folks to voluntarily leave the labor force, that is to forego earning a paycheck, the only positive reason would be that things are so good that the average American household is well-off enough for the wife to stay at home, kids go to college instead of working, take a vacation instead of working, take early retirement instead of working, etc. We know for a fact that the cumulative effects of the bad economy worked against all those scenarios. Nothing of leisure was enabled by this recession.

    It is that simple. The shrink of the LFPR is all linked to a bad economy. It is a statistical anomaly that helps keep a terrible situation from appearing terrible on paper. But its still terrible at everyone's dinner table.
    I call bull.

    This recession was caused by all of us, not just the government.

    Greed, from most of America and even some other parts of the world, caused this recession. People spending money they didn't have. Regular people and the government and even businesses, then getting screwed when that money started to become, at least in small parts. And the banks and others that loaned that money share some of the blame because they should have known those people couldn't pay back that money that was being borrowed. In some cases, they were counting on the people not being able to pay it back.
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  2. #252
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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    Since several have thrown out this notion that the housing bubble was due to under-regulation, a reminder or two for those who care to research it.

    1) The "bubble" was the foundation of all things "collapse" with housing. If there was no bubble, there's no trouble. The bubble was the unnatural creation of government, beginning in the late 90's, with both the emergence of Fannie and Freddie as the overwhelmingly largest players in the mortgage market (50%), and our own Federal Government suing the major lenders to take-on more sub-primes. All of that is exceedingly well-documented. Once inflation in housing was off and running (the bubble), then everyone got a finger in the pie, which is completely to be expected ! They did not create the wave though. They only rode what government created.

    2) Fannie and Freddie were exempted from oversight by Dodd-Frank.

    Now the government, which caused the problem, says that they are the cure. And many liberals agree.
    The bubble was NOT the trouble. The trouble was over leveraged banks and financial institutions that were on the bring of collapse and were too big to fail. Bubbles have been happening since market economies have existed. We had the Junk bond bubble in the 80's and the .com bubble at the end of the 90's. We had the railroad bubbles in the late 1800's, we had credit bubbles that led to the market collapse in 1929. Going back further the first recorded bubble was the Dutch Tulop bulb bubble in the 1600's. If our financial sector cannot weather a bubble which occurs in any market system then it's structrually unsound.

    I agree with you in part....Government has pushed home ownership but you laying the full blame at the government for the bubble is not true. I'm not going to get into all the details because they've been posted countless times and honestly...regarding Frank-Dodd it's irrelevant.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

  3. #253
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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    I call bull.

    This recession was caused by all of us, not just the government.

    Greed, from most of America and even some other parts of the world, caused this recession. People spending money they didn't have. Regular people and the government and even businesses, then getting screwed when that money started to become, at least in small parts. And the banks and others that loaned that money share some of the blame because they should have known those people couldn't pay back that money that was being borrowed. In some cases, they were counting on the people not being able to pay it back.
    My friend. "Greed" is a constant. "Greed" is as simple as you wanting a better tomorrow for yourself, and your family, than you have today. "Greed" is as old as dirt, and will be here so long as dirt is as well. And OBTW, "Greed" is such as OWS protesters wanting their college loans forgiven. "Greed" is agreeing with Obama's class war that those with more money than you should pay a higher rate than you, and not just the same rate.

    Let me remind all you liberals. For everyone that bought a house as the bubble grew, let's assume at 20% more than it was valued at one year prior, or 40% more than 2 years prior, or even double 5 years prior, the selling owner reaped those profits. For every American homeowner that ended up underwater, there are one are more Americans who sold before the bubble burst on that property, and made those profits.

    You note "predatory lending" (my paraphrase). So what of it ? 25% of all homeowners are underwater. If you include foreclosed and short-sales, almost 40% of our housing market has a note on it that is more than the current value of the property. That is a bubble bursting. That is not predatory lending. Are you going to say that the bubble was not going to burst ? It was a bubble. And bubbles burst.

    Otherwise, folks buying houses that you claim they could not "afford" is simply one component of normal capitalism. It is no different from folks in a home that they bought in 1999 and owe $200K on, which from 2001 to 2006 the house rose in value to $400K, and so they take out a second mortgage in 2006 for $150K to put Junior in the best college and take that dream vacation. Figuring that in a worse case scenario, they can still sell their house for a profit, or re-fi again. Now they are woefully in over their head. It is millions of stories like that which are the root of the recession. Not some yahoo who bought a home that he probably could not afford, but who also had the same expectations of it going up in value, which is what fueled everything.

    And lastly, it matters not who was the last one holding the mortgage, whether it was a bank, S&L, mortgage company, Merrill Lynch in a bundle, and all other machinations that had to do with the repeal of Glass-Steagle. Cause someone was going to be holding it, and be facing a huge loss.

    So blame greed. You might as well blame the sun rising in the east.

  4. #254
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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    My friend. "Greed" is a constant. "Greed" is as simple as you wanting a better tomorrow for yourself, and your family, than you have today. "Greed" is as old as dirt, and will be here so long as dirt is as well. And OBTW, "Greed" is such as OWS protesters wanting their college loans forgiven. "Greed" is agreeing with Obama's class war that those with more money than you should pay a higher rate than you, and not just the same rate.

    Let me remind all you liberals. For everyone that bought a house as the bubble grew, let's assume at 20% more than it was valued at one year prior, or 40% more than 2 years prior, or even double 5 years prior, the selling owner reaped those profits. For every American homeowner that ended up underwater, there are one are more Americans who sold before the bubble burst on that property, and made those profits.

    You note "predatory lending" (my paraphrase). So what of it ? 25% of all homeowners are underwater. If you include foreclosed and short-sales, almost 40% of our housing market has a note on it that is more than the current value of the property. That is a bubble bursting. That is not predatory lending. Are you going to say that the bubble was not going to burst ? It was a bubble. And bubbles burst.

    Otherwise, folks buying houses that you claim they could not "afford" is simply one component of normal capitalism. It is no different from folks in a home that they bought in 1999 and owe $200K on, which from 2001 to 2006 the house rose in value to $400K, and so they take out a second mortgage in 2006 for $150K to put Junior in the best college and take that dream vacation. Figuring that in a worse case scenario, they can still sell their house for a profit, or re-fi again. Now they are woefully in over their head. It is millions of stories like that which are the root of the recession. Not some yahoo who bought a home that he probably could not afford, but who also had the same expectations of it going up in value, which is what fueled everything.

    And lastly, it matters not who was the last one holding the mortgage, whether it was a bank, S&L, mortgage company, Merrill Lynch in a bundle, and all other machinations that had to do with the repeal of Glass-Steagle. Cause someone was going to be holding it, and be facing a huge loss.

    So blame greed. You might as well blame the sun rising in the east.
    Greed can be controlled. It just takes a little self control. Not nearly the same as blaming a sun rise.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    The bubble was NOT the trouble. The trouble was over leveraged banks and financial institutions that were on the bring of collapse and were too big to fail. Bubbles have been happening since market economies have existed. We had the Junk bond bubble in the 80's and the .com bubble at the end of the 90's. We had the railroad bubbles in the late 1800's, we had credit bubbles that led to the market collapse in 1929. Going back further the first recorded bubble was the Dutch Tulop bulb bubble in the 1600's. If our financial sector cannot weather a bubble which occurs in any market system then it's structrually unsound.

    I agree with you in part....Government has pushed home ownership but you laying the full blame at the government for the bubble is not true. I'm not going to get into all the details because they've been posted countless times and honestly...regarding Frank-Dodd it's irrelevant.
    All due respect. Look to the bubbles you cited. Look to the comparative net-worth lost when those bubbles popped, as comparred to this bubble. Look at the comparative trillions lost with this bubble.

    Yes, bubbles happen in a market economy. But we had not had a housing bubble of this magnitude ever. Any bubble of this magnitude, unless one wants to compare the original tipping that began the Depression. The reason we had never had a bubble such as this in housing is because government was never able to interfere in basic capitalism in that market as they were able to this time. Government ordering banks to make riskier loans, loans they never would have made, while at the same time agreeing to underwrite every loan via FF. It was the biggest moral hazard in the history of our market.
    Last edited by Eighty Deuce; 01-11-12 at 01:27 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    Greed can be controlled. It just takes a little self control. Not nearly the same as blaming a sun rise.
    The cause of the bubble was greed for power in politics. Yes, that can be controlled, but it isn't done by making government larger, and more powerful.

  7. #257
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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    The cause of the bubble was greed for power in politics. Yes, that can be controlled, but it isn't done by making government larger, and more powerful.
    The greed was from everyone. People greedy for houses and other things they couldn't afford. Banks and other financial institutes greedy for the money they would make from other people's greed to get the money right "now". Politicians greedy for political power. Companies too greedy to raise pay so people could actually afford those extra things.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    The greed was from everyone. People greedy for houses and other things they couldn't afford. Banks and other financial institutes greedy for the money they would make from other people's greed to get the money right "now". Politicians greedy for political power. Companies too greedy to raise pay so people could actually afford those extra things.
    Again, "greed" is what motivates us all to improve. The basic controlling factor should be that you are able to decide for yourself where you put your resources (your money and effort). You may still be ripped off, or make bad choices, but that is the playing field in which we seek to improve ourselves. It was government that came in and manipulated the rules, the field, the umpires, the ball. Everything. They warped capitalism, and they created the moral hazard. They removed the basic accountability that governs capitalism, which in this case were the dynamics of lending money.

    You can fight "greed" all you want, but are you ready to tell me that had you bought a house in 1995 for $100K, and then were ready to move in 2005 to another state, and your house was appraised at $250K, that you were going to say something akin to "Nope, $150K is fair. I do not want to be greedy" ?
    Last edited by Eighty Deuce; 01-11-12 at 01:39 PM.

  9. #259
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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    My friend. "Greed" is a constant. "Greed" is as simple as you wanting a better tomorrow for yourself, and your family, than you have today. "Greed" is as old as dirt, and will be here so long as dirt is as well. And OBTW, "Greed" is such as OWS protesters wanting their college loans forgiven. "Greed" is agreeing with Obama's class war that those with more money than you should pay a higher rate than you, and not just the same rate.

    So blame greed. You might as well blame the sun rising in the east.
    "There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio

  10. #260
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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    Again, "greed" is what motivates us all to improve. The basic controlling factor should be that you are able to decide for yourself where you put your resources (your money and effort). You may still be ripped off, or make bad choices, but that is the playing field in which we seek to improve ourselves. It was government that came in and manipulated the rules, the field, the umpires, the ball. Everything. They warped capitalism, and they created the moral hazard. They removed the basic accountability that governs capitalism, which in this case were the dynamics of lending money.

    You can fight "greed" all you want, but are you ready to tell me that had you bought a house in 1995 for $100K, and then were ready to move in 2005 to another state, and your house was appraised at $250K, that you were going to say something akin to "Nope, $150K is fair. I do not want to be greedy" ?
    I was 15 in '95.

    If I can't afford the house, I'm not going to buy it.

    I also wouldn't turn down a family to buy my home for less than the $250K if I knew I only paid $100K for it. I would probably work something out with the family and what they could afford. Sure making a profit is ok, but expecting to make that much of a profit is wrong.

    The biggest problem I see with our country and the way we do housing now is the banks own most of the houses. People should own their houses, not the banks.

    Hell, I was just talking about this with my husband the other day. I wish more people were able to work out more "rent to own" housing arrangements, instead of getting money from the bank and hoping nothing happens that decreases a family's income.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

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