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Thread: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Consumer based economy is what progressives have been moving this country toward since the 70s as a way to destroy capitalism.
    j-mac
    Nonsense. A consumption driven economy is self-sustaining and is the norm for any massive post-industrial society.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    Nonsense. A consumption driven economy is self-sustaining and is the norm for any massive post-industrial society.
    No, it is not. It is in fact the opposite. If you as a society are not producing what you buy, you are not productive. And if you cannot increase productivity, you cannot increase your standard of living. If you are not producing, you are in fact raising the standard of living somewhere else, that is producing what you are purchasing, while lowering yours.
    Last edited by Eighty Deuce; 01-06-12 at 06:27 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    No, it is not. It is in fact the opposite. If you are not producing what you buy, you are not productive.
    Simple analysis of international trade tells a different story; that the U.S. consumes outside of its ability to produce is simply a matter of fact. Doing so INCREASES the nations standard of living!

    And if you cannot increase productivity, you cannot increase your standard of living. If you are not producing, you are in fact raising the standard of living somewhere else, that is producing what you are purchasing, while lowering yours.
    I cannot even follow your line of thought. Clear up the incoherent statements and maybe we can have a discussion.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    What Reagan did to increase revenues was increase SSI payments leading to the 2 trillion SS surplus which his GOP sucessors promptly spent. That act alone caused the economy to languish until Clinton. Taking money from those that would spend it in th economy is self defeating. Taxing money not spent boost the economy when the Govt. spends what the individual cannot. In a consumer economy spending=growth.
    Again, a glaring falsehood. Start to finish, but particularly with this notion of being a consumer. One must be a producer, to then become a viable consumer. Otherwise, one is only creating debt, and eventual devaluation, which means even less consumption. Whether you take the money from someone else, and distribute it to yourself to spend, or just run the printing presses, both are to put liens on all future productivity, while also eventually devaluing your dollars, usually seen as inflation.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    Simple analysis of international trade tells a different story; that the U.S. consumes outside of its ability to produce is simply a matter of fact. Doing so INCREASES the nations standard of living!
    Complete BS. What you see now is a $16 trillion debt, that will absolutely lower our standard of living in 1000 ways.

    I cannot even follow your line of thought. Clear up the incoherent statements and maybe we can have a discussion.
    And you can stick the smarmy where the sun don't shine. The concept of increasing one's productivity as being the only true way to increase one's standard of living is older than dirt. Whether it be one person, or an entire society. All other means head for a cliff. We have now put ourselves $16T in Federal debt, plus all the cumulative personal debt in every household, postponing when we go off a cliff. It ain't far now. Its actually pretty darn close.
    Last edited by Eighty Deuce; 01-06-12 at 06:26 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    Complete BS. What you see now is a $16 trillion debt, that will absolutely lower our standard of living in 1000 ways.
    Now you are flip flopping on your premise. What does federal debt have to do with "producing what you buy"?

    And you can stick the smarmy where the sun don't shine.
    Personal attack noted.

    The concept of increasing one's productivity as being the only true way to increase one's standard of living is older than dirt.
    Do you have any evidence that suggests that productivity in the United States is in any way stagnant, let alone NOT of the highest in the entire world?

    Whether it be one person, or an entire society. All other means head for a cliff.
    Incoherent rants are of no interest to me.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Of course its good news but the problem is its not the kind of news the GOP want to hear at the start of an election year...

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    Of course its good news but the problem is its not the kind of news the GOP want to hear at the start of an election year...
    Name for us the economic program obama implemented that created the unemployment in December 2011, Christmas??

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    Do you have any evidence that suggests that productivity in the United States is in any way stagnant, let alone NOT of the highest in the entire world?
    Dalio does a good job of explaining what Eighty Deuce is talking about.

    As shown below in chart 1, real per capita GDP has increased at an average rate of a shade less than 2%
    over the last 100 years and didn’t vary a lot from that. This is because, over time, knowledge increases,
    which in turn raises productivity and living standards.
    As shown in this chart, over the very long run,
    there is relatively little variation from the trend line. Even the Great Depression in the 1930s looks rather
    small. As a result, we can be relatively confident that, with time, the economy will get back on track.
    However, up close, these variations from trend can be enormous. For example, typically in depressions
    the peak-to-trough declines in real economic activity are around 20%, the destruction of financial
    wealth is typically more than 50% and equity prices typically decline by around 80%. The losses in
    financial wealth for those who have it at the beginning of depressions are typically greater than these
    numbers suggest because there is also a tremendous shifting of who has wealth.
    Productivity.JPG

    Most importantly, major swings around the trend are due to expansions and contractions in credit – i.e.,
    credit cycles, most importantly 1) a long-term (typically 50 to 75 years) debt cycle (i.e., the “long wave
    cycle”) and 2) a shorter-term (typically 5 to 8 years) debt cycle (i.e., the “business/market cycle”).
    In the third stage countries are rich and think of themselves as rich.

    ...
    However, they eventually transition to a stage in which debts rise faster than incomes and
    incomes rise faster than productivity.
    Inflation rates rise because rapidly rising income growth
    leads to rapidly increasing spending on many items that cannot be correspondingly increased in
    supply via productivity gain
    In the fourth stage countries become poorer and still think of themselves as rich.

    Since they are reluctant to constrain their spending in line with their reduced income growth rate, they lower their savings
    rates, increase their debts and cut corners. Because their spending continues to be strong, they
    continue to appear rich, even though their balance sheets deteriorate.
    The reduced level of
    efficient investments in infrastructure, capital goods and R&D slow their productivity gains.
    Their cities and infrastructures become older and less efficient than those in the two earlier
    stages. Their balance of payments positions deteriorate, reflecting their reduced
    competitiveness. They increasingly rely on their reputations rather than on their
    competitiveness to fund their deficits.
    As Kyle Bass explains in his recent quarterly letter, over the last decade global debt has grown at a CAGR of 11% while GDP has averaged 4%. Hayman_Nov2011

    As for the US's global competitiveness, it's deteriorating quickly.

    USA output.JPG

    Consumption fueled by debt and income growth that outpaces productivity growth leads to long-term debt cycles and eventual deleveragings. Thinking we can borrow enough money to throw at the problem in an attempt to temporarily prop up demand doesn't fix a problem that was brought on by overleverage in the first place.

    Because these cycles evolve slowly over long time frames – over at least 100+ years – they are
    imperceptible to most people. They are also essentially irrelevant to rulers who typically have time
    horizons of a couple of years. As a result, they are not controlled, which is the main reason that they are
    destined to occur. If human nature was different so that debt growth doesn’t outpace income growth
    and income growth doesn’t outpace productivity growth, these cycles would be pretty much eliminated.
    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...SeWLBvxzWhnrig

    https://www.bwater.com/home/disclaim....aspx%3ff%3d50
    "There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio

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    Re: U.S. Payrolls Gain More-Than-Expected 200,000; Jobless Rate Falls to 8.5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Name for us the economic program obama implemented that created the unemployment in December 2011, Christmas??
    Tough to say if it was just the Christmas effect or if the economy is actually improving, we will have to wait and see what happens over the next couple of months.

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