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Thread: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    It's clear your intention is to discuss anything other than the topic
    The meaning of the topic is clear...... 315,000 fewer people are now looking for jobs, which resulted in the drop in the unemployment rate. There are now 487,000 fewer people in the workforce than there was in October.

    Of the private sector jobs, 50,000 of them were retail, obviously temporary holiday work. Manufacturing gained only 2,000 new jobs, while construction lost 12,000.

    If it makes you feel good to gloat about these pathetic numbers, feel free.

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    Of the private sector jobs, 50,000 of them were retail, obviously temporary holiday work.
    What is the point of seasonal adjustment?
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Edit: The monthly gain for civilian non-institional population was 172,000, not 128,000 as stated in this post.

    Because of this error, disregard (or poke fun of!) the argument in that post. My apologies.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    What is the point of seasonal adjustment?
    The seasonal adjustment takes the peak and valley from the holiday out of the equasion, so you can compare apples to apples, not apples to Christmas trees.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    The seasonal adjustment takes the peak and valley from the holiday out of the equasion, so you can compare apples to apples, not apples to Christmas trees.
    Hey. How do you pronounce your username?
    Let evil swiftly befall those who have wrongly condemned us

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    Hey. How do you pronounce your username?
    Its pronounced the way it looks, not the Wiccan way. Sam-hain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    Its pronounced the way it looks, not the Wiccan way. Sam-hain.

    Wiccan? Try gaelic. "sow-vin". Neber pronounced "sam hain".


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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    The seasonal adjustment takes the peak and valley from the holiday out of the equation, so you can compare apples to apples, not apples to Christmas trees.
    Thank you. Now would you please explain that to Gill?
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Insights from the bear of bear blogs. It's hard to argue with the logic.

    Guest Post: The Real Employment Situation Report | ZeroHedge

    We have pointed out in the past that while the headlines may say one thing it is important to remember that there are several "fudge" factors in the data that must be accounted for. The first is to remember that these are estimates and we will very likely see negative revisions to this years data next year. The 2011 revisions to the 2010 data took nearly 1 million jobs out that were believed to have been created.

    However, for todays discussion, it is the third point that is more important today than ever in past history. This is the number of individuals that have "fallen off" the rolls entirely due to running out of the ability to file for unemployment claims. Those individuals not counted as part of the labor force swelled by 487,000 to a record 86.5 million. This in turn led to a drop in the labor force participation rate to 64% from last months 64.2%. This is the lowest levels of labor force participation that we have seen since the early 1980's. This weakness is further confirmed by the duration of those out of work which climbed to a new record of 40.9 weeks.
    Employtment to Population.jpg

    This is why I prefer to look at the employment to population ratio as a better means of understanding the real employment situation in the country. In order for the country to return to the long term trend of employment by 2020 we will need to be creating nearly 400,000 jobs each month. This of course is a far cry from 120,000 that we saw this month. With the employment to population ratio remaining at levels not seen since 1984 the real pressure on the economy remains focused on the consumer.
    Without employment growing fast enough to offset labor pool overhang we are unlikely to reduce the real unemployment problem that persist in the U.S. This bodes poorly for the consumer, the economy and ultimately the markets as this weakness leaves all three very susceptible to unexpected system shocks. While we certianly hope for the best - "hope" is not an investment strategy that we can use.
    As partisan as they may be, criticisms are the unemployment number and how it is calculated are completely justified.
    "There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    Thank you. Now would you please explain that to Gill?
    why bother?

    Originally Posted by johnny_rebson:

    These are the same liberals who forgot how Iraq attacked us on 9/11.


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