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Thread: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post

    When Bush changed the calculations on unemployment, libs attacked saying that the 5% numbers were totally wrong, now that Obama is pushing it further, lying to make himself look better for re election, then all the sudden there has been no change in calculation...BS.
    Don't you see that's what's really happening here? All the cons who were totally OK with Bush fudging it are now condemning Obama for it.

    Bush's economic figures were kind of like the Emperor's new clothes. It was great until somebody realized the dude was nude, but then the whole charade collapsed. Obama's biggest fault is that he's going around trying to convince everybody that the Emperor isn't naked and nobody buys it anymore.


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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Ontologuy View Post
    The unemployment report we received from the BLS today is for the period of the second week in October through the first week in November, though it is still referred to as the "November" report but most of the information is really from October. This is always how it is done -- the report we receive early in a given month is always about information for the period of the second week two months previous through the first week of the previous month. The data for this period is captured during the previous month, and tabulated during the remaining weeks, then the report is presented early in the current month.

    The information in the report is obtained, not from government unemployment offices reporting actuals, but from a survey taken during the second week of every month by the U.S. Census people specifically for the BLS, in which approximately 120,000 pre-selected individuals and 150,000 pre-selected businesses are interviewed. From these numbers, the BLS draws inferences for the entire nation and those figures appear in the report. Yes, the figures are estimates, not reporting actuals.

    Here is the resulting main BLS Employment Status Table: Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age

    Notice the sharp rise of half a million people dropped into the the Not In Labor category in November, almost as if they had been taken directly from the Unemployed figure of the previous month and transferred there. Because Not In Labor Force is not included in the unemployment percent calculation, that most certainly has a reducing effect on the rate. And thus by reducing the Civilian Labor Force by this "transfer", that has a double whammy effect of lowering the rate. Could it be that this many unemployed people didn't "officially" look for work during the previous 4 weeks (the 4-week reporting period)? That would indeed get these "discouraged" workers ejected from the "Civilian Labor Force" category and punished into "Not In Labor Force".

    The Persons Who Currently Want A Job figure is part of Not In Labor Force, and thus these 6.595 milion people are not included in the 13.303 million officially Unemployed count. In addition, I've spoken wth a BLS agent who told me that this Currently Want A Job Figure is not at all accurate with respect to reality, as the number they report is simply way understated, as these people who have dropped off the reporting survey radar are simply ignored, with no official assumption made about them. The agent said that, off the record, the Persons Who Currently Want A Job likely reflects about 60% of the real total, as there's simply no way to tabulate, for instance, those who are homeless. Thus the real figure here is really about 10.991 million.

    Thus when you add that 10,991 to the 13,303, a more realistic number of unemployed is 24.294 million. Then, recalculating to obtain a truer unemployment rate ((10,991 + 13,303) / (10,991 + 153,893)), we arrive at 14.73%, a more realistic national unemployment rate.

    I believe the public is being misinformed, not merely mathematically but substantively as well.

    In addition, these figures say nothing about the nature of the 278,000 jobs-increase from the previous reporting period. Considering 'tis the season to buy jolly, it would not surprise me if the jobs increase was greatly minimum wage factory, warehouse, and retail sales clerk in nature, complete with attendant minimum non-living wage remuneration.

    Thus with regard to the 9.0-to-8.6 percent "happy days are here again" reduction in the "official" unemployment rate, that is a pretty good example of the "lies, damn lies, and statistics" adage.

    Outstanding post!!!!!! Welcome, hope you stick around....


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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by rocket88 View Post
    Don't you see that's what's really happening here? All the cons who were totally OK with Bush fudging it are now condemning Obama for it.

    Bush's economic figures were kind of like the Emperor's new clothes. It was great until somebody realized the dude was nude, but then the whole charade collapsed. Obama's biggest fault is that he's going around trying to convince everybody that the Emperor isn't naked and nobody buys it anymore.

    So Bush is responsible for Obama fudging the numbers today?? Good God man, get over it, Bush is not in office.

    j-mac
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    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhapsody1447 View Post

    U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6% - Bloomberg

    Good news for everybody except Gingrich/Romney. These economists are becoming laughable with their predictions as it seems almost every job report misses expectations and is later revised by 2 standard deviations. This one they were "right on" as payrolls came in as expected at 120k but the unemployment rate unexpectedly decline. Some pessimists are attributing this to a decline in the labor force. Either way, unemployment rate is now below 9%, the lowest it's been since it peaked at 10.1% back in March 2009.
    Republicans would much prefer that the nation endure another year of pain rather than run the risk of allowing someone else take the credit after 2012.

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhapsody1447 View Post
    This is all great news. As a conservative I am thrilled that the private sector is adding jobs and the public sector is shedding them. You and Goldenboy completely ignoring the labor participation rate is overly-optimistic on your parts. If you looked at the charts I posted the LPR is at historic lows and must be taken into consideration when looking at decreases in the unemployment rate.

    Of course like I said, Obama has already capitalized on this news as a political talking point. Just now on TV, he mentioned it and then criticized Republicans for blocking the payroll tax cut extension. I can't remember any President in history that has blamed the opposition party as much as Obama, but I digress.
    I don't believe I've ever known a Senate Minority leader to say it's his primary job to make the sitting president a one-term president either.

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    So when economic data does not mesh with right wing talking points, THEN the data is incomplete?
    Since you are right-wing, you are criticizing yourself.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
    "Fly-over" country voted, and The Donald is now POTUS.

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Wow! You mean a whole 15K? Well my god! Call the family, get the celebration on, the depression is OVER! This is such BS.
    Instead of attacking a strawman (show me where i claimed the depression is over), why not put your time into doing some research on a topic you feel strongly enough to argue about. Last month, the civilian non-institutional population increased by 128,000 while the number of people employed increased by only 100,000. Can you tell me how many times since July 2007 where employment gains have been greater than or equal to CNIP increases, on a per month basis?

    The numbers are fake.
    Then why bother discussing something you feel is fake?

    What the?!!! What the hell are you feeding us now? 315 thousand people long term unemployed become discouraged from finding work at all, and they are not unemployed? Well, what are they doing then? Did they find work?
    If you do not understand what constitutes being unemployed, how on earth can you adequately discuss this topic with those that do?
    Last edited by Kushinator; 12-02-11 at 01:05 PM.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    Look. Periods of financial deleveraging for consumers, as well as lenders, has the ability to create a short term structural imbalance in labor markets by way of ensuring skill mismatches. To further complicate the matter, people who have mortgage liabilities are far less capable of moving to areas that offer better employment opportunities (negative factor mobility). Of course a full recovery would require a reduced structural imbalance, but nobody is arguing (at least i am not) that the labor market has completely recovered.

    This is good news. Those that i have responded to in this thread were talking out of their partisan asses.
    But see it isn't good news unless you want it to be for your own minds eye. See the numbers are full of ****. So much fiddling with this indicator has been going on over the decades that the true story hasn't been revealed to the people since essentially the '30s, and 40's as far as true numbers.

    But this does dovetail beautifully with the CBO thread, so I have to ask, why no response to this post: http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaki...post1059995544

    I'd really like to know if you could....Thanks.


    j-mac
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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    Since you are right-wing, you are criticizing yourself.
    Not at all. My post history is a testament to my consistency.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    I wonder what we'd come up with by dividing the number of adults who have full time jobs that pay a living wage by the number who are neither retired nor staying home to raise children while the spouse is the breadwinner?

    I'd be willing to bet it wouldn't be over 75% or so.
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

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