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Thread: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    If we do not go by seasonal adjustment, the unemployment rate is 8.2%.
    I'll get excited when the unemployment rate drops at the same time jobseekers are increasing. A drop in the rate at the same time 315,000 fewer people are looking for jobs means little.

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by liblady View Post
    we have always measured this way.

    This is just not true.

    DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE IN CALCULATIONS Who is no longer counted.

    If you look at the way unemployment was calculated in the 1930's, you will find that the numbers we use today to calculate unemployment are dramatically different. Here is how:

    CHILD WORKERS NOT COUNTED TODAY

    In the 1930's, when they calculated unemployment they were including a workforce of children, including those who were just 14 and 15 years old. Because of child labor laws, only those 16 and older who have already entered the work force are counted today.

    SELF EMPLOYED NOT COUNTED TODAY
    Those who are considered self-employed today have also been eliminated from the percentages of the workforce that were included in the percentages in the 1930's.

    THOSE NOT ACTIVELY SEEKING WORK, ALSO NOT COUNTED
    (People whose benefits have run out and they stopped reporting active job search)
    In addition, they are now eliminating those who are not actively searching for employment. If a person gives up on looking for a job and does not report to the unemployment office, for example, when their benefits have run out and they can't draw a payment any longer, they are no longer counted in the figures today. Because of the extended unemployment, this could be a relatively high number of individuals this month.

    APPROXIMATE CHANGE IN CALCULATION
    When you take into account these three factors alone in addition to some other minor factors, "current unemployment numbers would be between 5% and 10% higher if calculated in the same way as in the past; conversely, the numbers from the 1930s and 1940s would be 5% - 10% lower if calculated using our contemporary methods."

    As a result, if you reduce the unemployment rate during the Great Depression from 24.9 percent by 10 percent (in order to compare apples to apples), the unemployment rate during the Great Depression (as calculated today) would have been 14.9 percent. That is just 5.2 percent higher than the published rate today. That is also 1.6 percent lower than what analysts are saying is the real rate of unemployment today.

    The real unemployment rate. 1930 contrasted with the Obama way of 2011

    When Bush changed the calculations on unemployment, libs attacked saying that the 5% numbers were totally wrong, now that Obama is pushing it further, lying to make himself look better for re election, then all the sudden there has been no change in calculation...BS.


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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    Are you stating that the 315 who left the labor force were discouraged? If so, please do continue!
    They are still unemployed. No?

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    It's the public sector that is losing jobs, raising taxes should cure that some..

    120,000 Jobs Created Last Month, Unemployment Falls To 8.6 Percent | ThinkProgress

    According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 120,000 jobs were created last month, bringing the unemployment rate down to 8.6 percent. Analysts had predicted job growth of about 130,000. 140,000 private sector jobs were created, while the public sector continued to shed jobs, losing 20,000. 72,000 jobs were added as revisions to previous reports, including a revision in the September number from 158,000 jobs created to 210,000 jobs created. The wider U6 measure of underemployment dropped from 16.2 percent to 15.6 percent.

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    I'll get excited when the unemployment rate drops at the same time jobseekers are increasing. A drop in the rate at the same time 315,000 fewer people are looking for jobs means little.
    You know i just don't get it. Last year, it was "i will get excited when the labor market keeps up with the population" and now it is "when it coincides with a net gain in labor force participation".

    The civilian non-institutional population increased by 105,000; that means that job growth eclipsed population growth by 15,000 last month. Do you know why it is convenient to argue with people who have to shift the goal post to stay relevant?
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by 1Perry View Post
    They are still unemployed. No?
    No, they are not unemployed. Maybe you should read up on what unemployment actually is before getting into discussions with people understand it already?.?.?.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    It's the public sector that is losing jobs, raising taxes should cure that some..

    120,000 Jobs Created Last Month, Unemployment Falls To 8.6 Percent | ThinkProgress

    According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 120,000 jobs were created last month, bringing the unemployment rate down to 8.6 percent. Analysts had predicted job growth of about 130,000. 140,000 private sector jobs were created, while the public sector continued to shed jobs, losing 20,000. 72,000 jobs were added as revisions to previous reports, including a revision in the September number from 158,000 jobs created to 210,000 jobs created. The wider U6 measure of underemployment dropped from 16.2 percent to 15.6 percent.
    This is all great news. As a conservative I am thrilled that the private sector is adding jobs and the public sector is shedding them. You and Goldenboy completely ignoring the labor participation rate is overly-optimistic on your parts. If you looked at the charts I posted the LPR is at historic lows and must be taken into consideration when looking at decreases in the unemployment rate.

    Of course like I said, Obama has already capitalized on this news as a political talking point. Just now on TV, he mentioned it and then criticized Republicans for blocking the payroll tax cut extension. I can't remember any President in history that has blamed the opposition party as much as Obama, but I digress.
    "There is an excellent correlation between giving society what it wants and making money, and almost no correlation between the desire to make money and how much money one makes." ~Dalio

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    The unemployment report we received from the BLS today is for the period of the second week in October through the first week in November, though it is still referred to as the "November" report but most of the information is really from October. This is always how it is done -- the report we receive early in a given month is always about information for the period of the second week two months previous through the first week of the previous month. The data for this period is captured during the previous month, and tabulated during the remaining weeks, then the report is presented early in the current month.

    The information in the report is obtained, not from government unemployment offices reporting actuals, but from a survey taken during the second week of every month by the U.S. Census people specifically for the BLS, in which approximately 120,000 pre-selected individuals and 150,000 pre-selected businesses are interviewed. From these numbers, the BLS draws inferences for the entire nation and those figures appear in the report. Yes, the figures are estimates, not reporting actuals.

    Here is the resulting main BLS Employment Status Table: Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age

    Notice the sharp rise of half a million people dropped into the the Not In Labor category in November, almost as if they had been taken directly from the Unemployed figure of the previous month and transferred there. Because Not In Labor Force is not included in the unemployment percent calculation, that most certainly has a reducing effect on the rate. And thus by reducing the Civilian Labor Force by this "transfer", that has a double whammy effect of lowering the rate. Could it be that this many unemployed people didn't "officially" look for work during the previous 4 weeks (the 4-week reporting period)? That would indeed get these "discouraged" workers ejected from the "Civilian Labor Force" category and punished into "Not In Labor Force".

    The Persons Who Currently Want A Job figure is part of Not In Labor Force, and thus these 6.595 milion people are not included in the 13.303 million officially Unemployed count. In addition, I've spoken wth a BLS agent who told me that this Currently Want A Job Figure is not at all accurate with respect to reality, as the number they report is simply way understated, as these people who have dropped off the reporting survey radar are simply ignored, with no official assumption made about them. The agent said that, off the record, the Persons Who Currently Want A Job likely reflects about 60% of the real total, as there's simply no way to tabulate, for instance, those who are homeless. Thus the real figure here is really about 10.991 million.

    Thus when you add that 10,991 to the 13,303, a more realistic number of unemployed is 24.294 million. Then, recalculating to obtain a truer unemployment rate ((10,991 + 13,303) / (10,991 + 153,893)), we arrive at 14.73%, a more realistic national unemployment rate.

    I believe the public is being misinformed, not merely mathematically but substantively as well.

    In addition, these figures say nothing about the nature of the 278,000 jobs-increase from the previous reporting period. Considering 'tis the season to buy jolly, it would not surprise me if the jobs increase was greatly minimum wage factory, warehouse, and retail sales clerk in nature, complete with attendant minimum non-living wage remuneration.

    Thus with regard to the 9.0-to-8.6 percent "happy days are here again" reduction in the "official" unemployment rate, that is a pretty good example of the "lies, damn lies, and statistics" adage.
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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    You know i just don't get it. Last year, it was "i will get excited when the labor market keeps up with the population" and now it is "when it coincides with a net gain in labor force participation".

    The civilian non-institutional population increased by 105,000; that means that job growth eclipsed population growth by 15,000 last month. Do you know why it is convenient to argue with people who have to shift the goal post to stay relevant?
    Wow! You mean a whole 15K? Well my god! Call the family, get the celebration on, the depression is OVER! This is such BS.

    The numbers are fake.

    Quote Originally Posted by 1Perry
    They are still unemployed. No?
    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219
    No, they are not unemployed...
    What the?!!! What the hell are you feeding us now? 315 thousand people long term unemployed become discouraged from finding work at all, and they are not unemployed? Well, what are they doing then? Did they find work?

    j-mac
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: U.S. Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 8.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhapsody1447 View Post
    This is all great news. As a conservative I am thrilled that the private sector is adding jobs and the public sector is shedding them. You and Goldenboy completely ignoring the labor participation rate is overly-optimistic on your parts. If you looked at the charts I posted the LPR is at historic lows and must be taken into consideration when looking at decreases in the unemployment rate.
    Look. Periods of financial deleveraging for consumers, as well as lenders, have the ability to create a short term structural imbalance in labor markets by way of ensuring skill mismatches. To further complicate the matter, people who have mortgage liabilities are far less capable of moving to areas that offer better employment opportunities (negative factor mobility). Of course a full recovery would require a reduced structural imbalance, but nobody is arguing (at least i am not) that the labor market has completely recovered.

    This is good news. Those that i have responded to in this thread were talking out of their partisan asses.
    Last edited by Kushinator; 12-02-11 at 01:04 PM.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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