Republicans block Obama jobs bill

Conservative said:

interesting that you haven't proven the numbers for Obama to be false. Thanks

Obama economic results in 2011,
.4% GDP and 1.3% GDP growth in 2011(bea.gov)
25+ million unemployed or under employed Americans in 2011(bls.gov)
2.6 million fewer jobs(bls.gov)
4.2 trillion added to the debt in less than 3 years(U.S. Treasury Site)
Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating(S&P)
Rising Misery index 7.83 to 12.97 (The United States Misery Index By Year)
38-41% JAR and well over 50-55% disapproval ratings(Gallup)

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Catawba said:

Obama Gains vs. GOP on Jobs as Congress Hits a New Low

"Barack Obama has jumped to a 15-point lead over the Republicans in Congress in trust to handle job creation, a sign the beleaguered president’s $450 billion jobs package has hit its mark in public opinion. Fifty-two percent support the plan – and most say it just might work.

Overall approval of the U.S. Congress, meanwhile, has dropped to its lowest in polls dating back to the mid-1970s. And of the eight in 10 Americans who are dissatisfied with the way the country’s political system is working, more blame the Republicans in Washington than the president."

Obama Gains vs. GOP on Jobs as Congress Hits a New Low - ABC News

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Conservative said:

I am sure the Obama Administration loves having people like you to use. Great job on their behalf, too bad you don't care much about your own credibility. Amazing how Obama's approval ratings are so low, wonder what the public gets that you don't? could it be his actual record?

Obama economic results in 2011,
.4% GDP and 1.3% GDP growth in 2011(bea.gov)
25+ million unemployed or under employed Americans in 2011(bls.gov)
2.6 million fewer jobs(bls.gov)
4.2 trillion added to the debt in less than 3 years(U.S. Treasury Site)
Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating(S&P)
Rising Misery index 7.83 to 12.97 (The United States Misery Index By Year)
38-41% JAR and well over 50-55% disapproval ratings(Gallup)

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whysoserious said:

Obama economic results in 2011,
.4% GDP and 1.3% GDP growth in 2011(bea.gov)

From http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls:
The mean GDP growth from 1998 to 2007 was 5.37%. That includes the years of the dot com boom, and does not include any of the recession years. What is more telling is the average percentage change which is -.063011%. What that means is that GDP had already begun growing at a smaller rate as 1998 to 2007 progressed.

Now, lets switch to quarters, which are the numbers you were using. During the Bush years, the average GDP growth per year was:

Under George W Bush, the mean change in GDP per quarter (using 2005 dollars) was 2.19%. I excluded the last two quarters of his term as they were the beginning of the recession and are statistical outliers. I will also remove the first two quarters from Obama's tenure as they are also outliers.

Conclusion

The mean percent growth using 2005 dollars during Obama's tenure (excluding the outliers) is 2.4625%. The GDP has, on average, grown faster during Obama's tenure than it did during George Bush's.

25+ million unemployed or under employed Americans in 2011(bls.gov)
Notice: Data not available: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
From 09/09 to 09/11, the labor force has grown by 77,000. Unemployment rates hit their peak around that time, and have been falling ever since.

2.6 million fewer jobs(bls.gov)
Notice: Data not available: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
That does not appear to be the case. The president does not begin to implement their own policies until around September after the election year. So, from 09/09 to 09/11, a total of 1,234,000 jobs have been added.

4.2 trillion added to the debt in less than 3 years(U.S. Treasury Site)

Yes, from "Debt By the Penny", it appears debt from Sept `09-Sept '11 has increased by about 3 trillion. However, under Bush, the debt increase from Sept `07 - Sept '09 is 2.779 trillion. That's a difference of of 7%. It is substantial, I would like to see it dropped, but it is not as jaw-dropping as your statistic would have you believe.

Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating(S&P)

There is nothing anyone can say to you about this. The S&P was very clear that the biggest reason our credit was downgraded was due to the hyper-partisanship displayed in Congress. The budget was also a major factor.

Rising Misery index 7.83 to 12.97

The United States Misery Index


Yeah, no ****, that's what happens when you inherit an economy in shambles. The misery index was at 11.4% during the last few months of the Bush administration.

38-41% JAR

I have no idea what this is. Sorry.

and well over 50-55% disapproval ratings(Gallup)

Yes, and from the Gallop Poll, Reagan was a 47% approval rating in his third year, only 6 percentage points above Obama. Who gives a damn? No wonder so many people disapprove when they listen to the nonsense you post.

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Conservative said:

Why are you using 2005 dollars and not current dollars, BEA.gov shows the numbers I posted and came out in the Commerce report release so comparing 2011 information to 2010 data the numbers are shrinking which shows that Obama policies failing

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whysoserious said:

Using one year's dollars is how you just for inflation. Your source and mine, bea.gov, chose to use 2005 dollars. Here is the link (I'll post a screen shot but I had to do some Excel Work to get the averages):

http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls
View attachment 67117096

See where it says GDB in billions of chained 2005 dollars. Those are the numbers I used, as they are inflation adjusted dollars.

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Conservative said:

Better tell that to the Commerce Dept who then screwed up their release. 2005 dollars mean nothing today, the numbers are what they are and affect both revenue and expenses.

Don't see Commerce Department using 2005 numbers

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whysoserious said:

It just means they aren't adjusted for inflation... it's not a huge deal but most people prefer to work in inflation adjusted dollars because they tell a better picture. And, again, it does not have to be 2005, it could be any year. You could use 1869 dollars if you wanted.

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You seemed to dismiss the idea that the previous president's budget does not end until Sept/Oct of the following year. Is that a fact you wish to dispute?

Also, if Bush allowed the misery rating to reach above 11% (which he did) does that make him a terrible president as well?

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Conservative said:

Most people live and work in the present paying present expenses from current revenue.

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whysoserious said:

Are you dense? You use inflation adjusted dollars so that you can compare other years. For instance, GDP in 2010 and 2011 could technically be the same, but due to inflation, 2011 would appear larger. If you don't adjust for inflation, you are missing a key element in comparing dollars per year. Inflation rates change per year, so if you compare 2011 dollars to 2010, and 2010 dollars to 2009 dollars, but you do not account for inflation, you will get an incorrect change in GDP.

It's simple really. Do you want me to do a little math tutorial for you? I'll do it if you want, I really don't mind.

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Conservative said:

GDP Percentage Change 2009-2011

Notice 2010 numbers of 3.9, 3.8, 2.5, 2.3 and then 2011 .4 and 1.3

These show why Obama is a failure

I II III IV I II III IV I II
-6.7 -0.7 1.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 2.5 2.3 0.4 1.3

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whysoserious said:

For Conservative, here is a tutorial in inflation adjusted dollars:

It's year one, and guess what buddy? You have one whole dollar in your pocket! Year one has a nice inflation rate of 2%. Year 2 has an inflation rate of 3%, and year 3 has an inflation rate of 5%. In year 1, you earned 5 cents, nice job! In year two, you earned 10 cents! Wow, way to go! In year 3, you earned nothing. You're a sad panda.

Money You Earned With Inflation
Jan 1 Year 1: 1
Jan 1 Year 2: 1.02 + .05 = 1.07
Jan 1 Year 3: (1.07)(1.03) + .1 = 1.20
Jan 1 Year 4: (1.2)(1.05) + 0 = 1.26

Percent Change Without Adjusting For Inflation
Year 1: 7%
Year 2: 10.83%
Year 3: 4.76%

But in reality, you didn't earn **** in year 3. It should be a zero, but because of inflation, you netted positive. So, adjusting for inflation:

Year 1: (1.07)/(1.02) = 1.05
Year 2: (1.20)/[(1.03)(1.02)] = 1.14
Year 3: (1.26)/[(1.05)(1.03)(1.02)] = 1.14

Percent Change In Dollars Adjusted For Inflation
Year 1: 5%
Year 2: 7.89%
Year 3: 0%

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Do you get the picture now?



You do not seem to understand or are not willing to admit how actual math is done. Don't talk numbers if you don't understand them. It's easy to understand, if you want to compare numbers that involve dollars from year to year, you need to adjust for inflation.

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whysoserious said:

Are you ****ing kidding me? Those are the 2005 adjusted values that you are bitching about me using. You're using them and you don't even know it. You're mad about that? Here's some values for Bush:

2001 Q3 - -1.1%
2006 Q3 - .1%
2008 Q1 - -1.8%

If you are mad at Obama, who has only produced positive growth in GDP, you must have been ****ing furious at GWB. Oh wait, you're a hack who doesn't even understand the numbers he's reading.



I see you have given up on logical discussion. That's good, it doesn't suit you. You're more of an empty rhetoric, say a bunch of things with no substance kind of guy.

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Conservative said:

Amazing how Obama's approval ratings are so low, wonder what the public gets that you don't? could it be his actual record?

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whysoserious said:

Check out how much Conservative knows about statistics:

Here is where I provided some context for all of his numbers:


His Response



LOL, so I said:


Trying to explain to him what is going on. His response:


My favorite part was "2005 dollars mean nothing today"! llololol This guy is citing us statistics?

So I said:


Trying to get him to understand why we adjust for inflation, and he said:



LOL whatever the **** that means. So then I go on to respond:



I got a little mean there, but only out of frustration of talking to someone about stats who has no idea what they are. And he responds with his usual posting up of random numbers:



Which is when I decided to teach him what adjusting for inflation is:


And it was right about that time, that I realized this guy was using the inflation adjusted numbers the whole time and didn't even know it (because he has no idea how to read the numbers):


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Sorry this post was so long, but I wanted to show you the brief history on Conservative's lack of knowledge with numbers and my history of exposing him for it. Any of those links will take you to each specific post I was referring to.

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Catawba said:

If you had actually read the post you responded to, you would have seen that the Republicans approval rating is much lower than the presidents in job creation, which is the public's highest priority.

Just can't bring yourself to that realization can you?

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Conservative said:

Wow, pardon me for not responding to your novel as what matters are the following, what is happening right now and what the American people actually see

Obama economic results in 2011,
.4% GDP and 1.3% GDP growth in 2011(bea.gov)
25+ million unemployed or under employed Americans in 2011(bls.gov)
2.6 million fewer jobs(bls.gov)
4.2 trillion added to the debt in less than 3 years(U.S. Treasury Site)
Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating(S&P)
Rising Misery index 7.83 to 12.97 (The United States Misery Index By Year)
38-41% JAR and well over 50-55% disapproval ratings(Gallup)

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Jryan said:

this (I actually took the time to read it)

LMFAO HAHA you crack me up conservative.

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Conservative said:

Wow, pardon me for not responding to your novel as what matters are the following, what is happening right now and what the American people actually see. Do you really believe the Americna electorate is going to compare Obama to Bush? Why was Obama hired in the first place. These are the results he generated

Obama economic results in 2011,
.4% GDP and 1.3% GDP growth in 2011(bea.gov)
25+ million unemployed or under employed Americans in 2011(bls.gov)
2.6 million fewer jobs(bls.gov)
4.2 trillion added to the debt in less than 3 years(U.S. Treasury Site)
Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating(S&P)
Rising Misery index 7.83 to 12.97 (The United States Misery Index By Year)
38-41% JAR and well over 50-55% disapproval ratings(Gallup)

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Conservative said:

Another opportunity to explain the numbers to me since no voter is going to inflation adjust the numbers or compare them to historical data. They are what they are today, what inflation have we had since he took office? How do you apply inflation to the unemployment and employment numbers? why was Obama hired in the first place and how do these results help his re-election?

Obama economic results in 2011,
.4% GDP and 1.3% GDP growth in 2011(bea.gov)
25+ million unemployed or under employed Americans in 2011(bls.gov)
2.6 million fewer jobs(bls.gov)
4.2 trillion added to the debt in less than 3 years(U.S. Treasury Site)
Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating(S&P)
Rising Misery index 7.83 to 12.97 (The United States Misery Index By Year)
38-41% JAR and well over 50-55% disapproval ratings(Gallup)

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whysoserious said:

What year are those GDP dollars in? (I bet he still doesn't know after I told him)

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whysoserious said:

Exactly. Don't say I never analyzed your numbers or put them into context, because I clearly did, and you clearly had no idea what it meant when I did. Hey Conservative, those 1935 dollars don't mean anything today!!! :2wave:

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whysoserious said:

What year are those GDP dollars in? (I bet he still doesn't know after I told him)

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Catawba said:

Republicans; You Lie! Tax Cuts For The Wealthy Do NOT Create Jobs!

"Republicans blamed uncertainty about the BushTax cuts being extended for the lack of job creation. They told us the wealthy were scared to create new jobs, because they were worried that their taxes would go up. Democrats agreed to pay the ransom, millions of poor and middle-class people continued to receive their unemployment checks in time for Christmas. The Republicans got what they wanted; an extended 3% tax cut for the “job creators” in our economy, people like Paris Hilton, Charlie Sheen, Lindsay Lohan, and their billionaire patrons; the Koch brothers.

That was December of 2010.

It’s now the middle of 2011. Last month in June only 18,000 jobs were created, less than the number that were created in May. Republicans told us that the ‘job creators’, the people with all the money, were just uncertain about their tax rates, but those were extended for another 2 years so why aren’t they using that money to create jobs yet?

Furthermore, those tax cuts were put into place in 2001, so why haven’t they been creating jobs since 2001? If those tax cuts spur job growth we should have seen an increase in jobs during the Bush Administration, but instead we saw a massive loss."

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Conservative said:

Is this what you hired Obama to do?

Obama economic results in 2011,
.4% GDP and 1.3% GDP growth in 2011(bea.gov)
25+ million unemployed or under employed Americans in 2011(bls.gov)
2.6 million fewer jobs(bls.gov)
4.2 trillion added to the debt in less than 3 years(U.S. Treasury Site)
Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating(S&P)
Rising Misery index 7.83 to 12.97 (The United States Misery Index By Year)
38-41% JAR and well over 50-55% disapproval ratings(Gallup)

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Conservative said:

No, you put them in your context, not the context of the election or what is going on today. The results are what they are, what affect has inflation had on unemployment and employment numbers? Think the American voter gives a damn about inflation driven dollars? How will that affect the election of 2012?

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Jryan said:

Conservative gets debunked

http://www.debatepolitics.com/break...block-obama-jobs-bill-126.html#post1059901349
http://www.debatepolitics.com/2012-...n-obama-grows-strongly-59.html#post1059891740

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whysoserious said:

Oh you don't care about context at all? Really? So let me post some numbers about Bush and Reagan and we'll see whether they were good presidents to you then (I'm wasting my time this guy is so thick):

Click "Percent Change From Preceding Period" for these numbers in an Excel sheet (in 2005 dollars)

Reagan GDP Changes
1981 Q2: -3.2%
1981 Q3: 4.9%
1981 Q4: -4.9%
1982 Q1: -6.4%

Wow, Reagan was a ****ing bad president.

Bush GDP Changes
2008 Q1: -1.8%
2008 Q2: 1.3%
2008 Q3: -3.7%
2008 Q4: -8.9%

Holy ****, Bush was even worse! How do conservatives like these guys!?!?! Like-omg Mrs Carta!

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Misery Index By President
Misery Index 2008

Under Reagan in 1981: 19.33
Under Bush in August 2008: 11.47

Wow, those guys are bad!

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Unemployment Rate History By Year (Next to "Annual Average Data" click PDF)

Unemployment under Reagan 1982: 9.7%
Unemployment under Bush (beginning 2009): 9.3%

Number of unemployed under Bush rose 22,000,000 from 2000-2008.

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From 1981-1982, 1,126,000 jobs were lost by Reagan.

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Presidential Approval Ratings History - Interactive Comparison Graph - WSJ.com
In 1983, after losing over 1 million jobs, having over 9% unemployment, and posting losses in GDP, Reagan's approval rating was 40%.

In 2008, after starting multiple wars, driving up the deficit, and seeing the recession begin to start, president George W. Bush's approval rating was under 30%.

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From Debt by the Penny, President Bush racked up 2.779 trillion in debt from Sept '07 to Sept '09.

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Did I miss anything?

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Conservative said:

No, you put them in your context, not the context of the election or what is going on today. The results are what they are, what affect has inflation had on unemployment and employment numbers? Think the American voter gives a damn about inflation driven dollars? How will that affect the election of 2012?

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Conservative said:

The same year that the 2010 numbers were reported in and what you fail to understand is that 2011 is worse than 2010 and that is a trend you don't want to acknowledge. How do you justify voting for someone who has generated worse numbers today than even last year? what inflation have we had in the last two years and why is the misery index rising. The only ones that igonre the Obama results are liberals like you who want to make it an intellectual discussion, there is no intellectual way to interpret the Obama results positively and you have yet to try

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