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Thread: Republicans block Obama jobs bill

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    Re: Republicans block Obama jobs bill

    Because this was posted SEVERAL pages ago I thought I would try to finish the point. The Senate in '09 went through various 'phases' of 'filibuster-proof' stages. Note in the table below when the 'Democrat' column has 58 and is added to the '2' in the independent column the result is a 60 vote majority. This constitues the aforementioned 'filibuster-proof' stage. One could argue that the 2 independents are not faithful to the Democrats...but really, do you think that Bernie Sanders or Joe Lieberman would vote with the Republicans?

    111 Senate.jpg

    So, regardless of whether you want to accept it Harry Reid had opportunities to overcome filibusters of cloture. You also seem to think this filibuster activity is specific to Republicans. To be sure they BOTH have done this since the beginning of the US.

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    Re: Republicans block Obama jobs bill

    Quote Originally Posted by winston53660 View Post
    What does your crystal ball say McCain Palin 's numbers would have been ?
    We will never know, now care to answer the question?

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    Re: Republicans block Obama jobs bill

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    And the recession began in July 1981 and it was a severe one. Reagan's first tax cut went into effect the first qtr of fiscal year 1981 and continued the next two years. A true test of any President is how their economic policies are two years after the end of a recession, not during the recession.

    I lived and worked during those times, did you? what you want to ignore is that with all the negative numbers in 1981 and 1982 Reagan still had incredible economic growth and added 17 million jobs to the economy. Bush took over a 9.9 trillion dollar economy that was going into recession and then 9/11 which was quite a shock and led to job losses. From January 2002 to January 2008 the Bush economy created 11 million jobs. Since Obama took office we have lost more jobs than what he inherited.

    Now I will ask you my previous question a different way, if you knew in November 2008 that we would have the numbers we have today would you have voted for Obama and if so why?
    I listened to a lot of conservative talk radio in 2008, so my picture of the country was that we were going to be lucky to even have an economy by 2011. The way the picture was painted in 2008, as I recall it, was that this was an Armageddon of economic downturn headed our way. I remember discussion of whether or not people's money would still be in the banks and how long it takes for FDIC insurance to pay out. I remember almost everyone saying, "If we don't get this bailout our entire country may go bankrupt". How about you?

    As much as you'd like to pretend it isn't, this recession is one of the worst we've had. Another difference between Obama's recession and Reagan's is that Obama inherited the recession just as things were getting bad, and Reagan came in only for the second dip of a double dip recession.

    Politifact:
    Dating the Reagan recession is somewhat tricky. The National Bureau of Economic Research -- the official arbiter of recession-dating -- classifies one recession as lasting from January 1980 to July 1980 and a second as running from July 1981 to November 1982. The first occurred wholly on President Jimmy Carter's watch, while the second was entirely under Reagan. However, some economists contend that the two recessions actually amount to one "double-dip" recession.
    It is hard to compare Obama to Reagan, because the second dip in Reagan's recession was worse than the first dip and if our recession dips again, the second dip will most likely not be as bad as the first dip. Another issue is that this recession has not officially hit a second dip (perhaps the stimulus staved it off?). Also, even with both Reagan and Obama inheriting recessions, I have shown you that Obama grew GDP more than Reagan anyway through the same term. Did you care? No. You said, "well this is not about Reagan".Here are some more Reagan declines in GDP growth later in his term:

    bea.gov GDP Rate of Change Excel File
    1986q1 3.9
    1986q2 1.6
    1986q3 3.9
    1986q4 1.9
    1987q1 2.2

    GDP fluctuates all the time.

    ----------------------------

    And to answer your question, yes, I would have voted for Obama. McCain had shown himself to be a hack, as he was a big fan of Jon Stewart and the Daily Show, and actually had some liberal policies. But as soon as he ran for president the second time and realized he had a chance, he went all "rogue" on us and decided he was actually a neoconservative - which is just a flat out lie and he knows it (I was a huge McCain fan until the second time he ran).

    Anyway, I am slightly disappointed with how Obama handled the health care bill, more disappointed that he didn't end extraordinary rendition and close G-Bay, and even more disappointed that he has negotiated with with republicans to the point that he has compromised our agenda a bit. However, I think any reasonable individual knew the economy was going to be ****ty for at least a few years after he got elected, and I see a lot of positive changes happening. I have no reason to believe McCain would have done anything differently or better than Obama did.
    Last edited by whysoserious; 10-25-11 at 11:56 PM.

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    Re: Republicans block Obama jobs bill

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    We will never know, now care to answer the question?
    Nope, your question is a strawman.

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    Re: Republicans block Obama jobs bill

    Quote Originally Posted by winston53660 View Post
    What does your crystal ball say McCain Palin 's numbers would have been ?
    Hijacked...they wouldn't have been much better. Some higher some lower...UE maybe 1-1.5points higher...Debt 2-3t lower...GDP 1.5-2.5 higher. Austerity measures would have slowed the debt increase some. The housing market debt would have cleared better...more would have been foreclosed on...the recovery would have come quicker but not just yet...rising MEDICAL care costs would have not changed (as it hasn't now) AND healthcare insurance would have followed (as it has now)...financial reform would not have happened (which hasn't happened now) and Wall Street would still be running wild.

    You got any predictions?

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    Re: Republicans block Obama jobs bill

    Quote Originally Posted by whysoserious View Post
    I listened to a lot of conservative talk radio in 2008, so my picture of the country was that we were going to be lucky to even have an economy by 2011. The way the picture was painted in 2008, as I recall it, was that this was an Armageddon of economic downturn headed our way. I remember discussion of whether or not people's money would still be in the banks and how long it takes for FDIC insurance to pay out. I remember almost everyone saying, "If we don't get this bailout our entire country may go bankrupt". How about you?

    As much as you'd like to pretend it isn't, this recession is one of the worst we've had. Another difference between Obama's recession and Reagan's is that Obama inherited the recession just as things were getting bad, and Reagan came in only for the second dip of a double dip recession.

    Politifact:


    It is hard to compare Obama to Reagan, because the second dip in Reagan's recession was worse than the first dip and if our recession dips again, the second dip will most likely not be as bad as the first dip. Another issue is that this recession has not officially hit a second dip (perhaps the stimulus staved it off?). Also, even with both Reagan and Obama inheriting recessions, I have shown you that Obama grew GDP more than Reagan anyway through the same term. Did you care? No. You said, "well this is not about Reagan".Here are some more Reagan declines in GDP growth later in his term:

    bea.gov GDP Rate of Change Excel File
    1986q1 3.9
    1986q2 1.6
    1986q3 3.9
    1986q4 1.9
    1987q1 2.2

    GDP fluctuates all the time.
    What do you call it when you are paying over 17.5% for a mortgage, double digit inflation for everything else, have rising unemployment, and record foreclosures? The recession in 1981-1982 was worse than the one today because of the impact on the average working American who was getting buried under extremely high cost of living. there are some good studies on both recessions but to ignore what Reagan inherited is foolish.

    As for the Reagan economy I gave you the numbers which almost doubled GDP and created 17 million jobs. Think Obama is going to create 17 million jobs if he is re-elected? If so how is he going to do it demonizing the private sector and hurting small businesses with Obamacare?

    Do you really think that the American people care about how much the GDP is during a President's term? They care about the jobs and are now learning to care about the debt. Reagan created 17 million jobs, Bush gained 11 million jobs January 2002 to January 2008 and in three years Obama has lost 2.6 million jobs. Regardless of the numbers it really is about leadership and experience. Obama lacks both and shows it.

    Why are you ignoring my question, if you knew in November 2008 what the numbers would be today would you still have voted for Obama and if so why?

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    Re: Republicans block Obama jobs bill

    Quote Originally Posted by Dickieboy View Post
    Hijacked...they wouldn't have been much better. Some higher some lower...UE maybe 1-1.5points higher...Debt 2-3t lower...GDP 1.5-2.5 higher. Austerity measures would have slowed the debt increase some. The housing market debt would have cleared better...more would have been foreclosed on...the recovery would have come quicker but not just yet...rising MEDICAL care costs would have not changed (as it hasn't now) AND healthcare insurance would have followed (as it has now)...financial reform would not have happened (which hasn't happened now) and Wall Street would still be running wild.

    You got any predictions?
    No predictions but I would have bought citigroup at 3 + change and sold at 5+ change.

  8. #1618
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    Re: Republicans block Obama jobs bill

    Quote Originally Posted by whysoserious View Post
    I listened to a lot of conservative talk radio in 2008, so my picture of the country was that we were going to be lucky to even have an economy by 2011. The way the picture was painted in 2008, as I recall it, was that this was an Armageddon of economic downturn headed our way. I remember discussion of whether or not people's money would still be in the banks and how long it takes for FDIC insurance to pay out. I remember almost everyone saying, "If we don't get this bailout our entire country may go bankrupt". How about you?

    As much as you'd like to pretend it isn't, this recession is one of the worst we've had. Another difference between Obama's recession and Reagan's is that Obama inherited the recession just as things were getting bad, and Reagan came in only for the second dip of a double dip recession.

    Politifact:


    It is hard to compare Obama to Reagan, because the second dip in Reagan's recession was worse than the first dip and if our recession dips again, the second dip will most likely not be as bad as the first dip. Another issue is that this recession has not officially hit a second dip (perhaps the stimulus staved it off?). Also, even with both Reagan and Obama inheriting recessions, I have shown you that Obama grew GDP more than Reagan anyway through the same term. Did you care? No. You said, "well this is not about Reagan".Here are some more Reagan declines in GDP growth later in his term:

    bea.gov GDP Rate of Change Excel File
    1986q1 3.9
    1986q2 1.6
    1986q3 3.9
    1986q4 1.9
    1987q1 2.2

    GDP fluctuates all the time.

    ----------------------------

    And to answer your question, yes, I would have voted for Obama. McCain had shown himself to be a hack, as he was a big fan of Jon Stewart and the Daily Show, and actually had some liberal policies. But as soon as he ran for president the second time and realized he had a chance, he went all "rogue" on us and decided he was actually a neoconservative - which is just a flat out lie and he knows it (I was a huge McCain fan until the second time he ran).

    Anyway, I am slightly disappointed with how Obama handled the health care bill, more disappointed that he didn't end extraordinary rendition and close G-Bay, and even more disappointed that he has negotiated with with republicans to the point that he has compromised our agenda a bit. However, I think any reasonable individual knew the economy was going to be ****ty for at least a few years after he got elected, and I see a lot of positive changes happening. I have no reason to believe McCain would have done anything differently or better than Obama did.
    going to call it a night but before I go here is why Reagan won a landslide victory in 1984 losing only the state of Minnesota

    GDP Percentage Change by Qtr
    1983 1984
    I II III IV I II III IV
    5.1 9.3 8.1 8.5 8 7.1 3.9 3.3

    On top of that was the jobs created by those economic numbers which led to a net job gain.

  9. #1619
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    Re: Republicans block Obama jobs bill

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    What do you call it when you are paying over 17.5% for a mortgage, double digit inflation for everything else, have rising unemployment, and record foreclosures? The recession in 1981-1982 was worse than the one today because of the impact on the average working American who was getting buried under extremely high cost of living. there are some good studies on both recessions but to ignore what Reagan inherited is foolish.

    As for the Reagan economy I gave you the numbers which almost doubled GDP and created 17 million jobs. Think Obama is going to create 17 million jobs if he is re-elected? If so how is he going to do it demonizing the private sector and hurting small businesses with Obamacare?

    Do you really think that the American people care about how much the GDP is during a President's term? They care about the jobs and are now learning to care about the debt. Reagan created 17 million jobs, Bush gained 11 million jobs January 2002 to January 2008 and in three years Obama has lost 2.6 million jobs. Regardless of the numbers it really is about leadership and experience. Obama lacks both and shows it.

    Why are you ignoring my question, if you knew in November 2008 what the numbers would be today would you still have voted for Obama and if so why?
    According to Gallup, job creation is on the rise and firings are dropping as well:
    ng86twrea0cxkvi1ieydna.jpg
    qwjbyrkxve-mjc-qguj3mw.jpg

    The Job Creation Index has increased steadily if marginally in 2011. This continues a pattern that began after the Index matched its low point of -5 in April 2009, and is consistent with the improvement in the overall U.S. job situation over the past couple of years.
    Also, bls.gov shows that between September 2010 and September 2011, 1,739,000. That's almost 2 million in one year. And, per the previous report I posted, those numbers increasing more each month, yeah, I'd say it is very possible he can not only match Reagan's numbers but beat them.

    -------------------

    As for comparing recessions, I agree that the inflation probably made it difficult for every American, but this recession is not the same type of recession, so while some would have faired better in the 80's under Reagan, others are doing much worse. I already posted an entire article comparing the two recessions, if you recall. You're comparing the second half to a double dip recession to a recession that may double dip or may not - no one knows.
    Last edited by whysoserious; 10-26-11 at 12:18 AM.

  10. #1620
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    Re: Republicans block Obama jobs bill

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    going to call it a night but before I go here is why Reagan won a landslide victory in 1984 losing only the state of Minnesota

    GDP Percentage Change by Qtr
    1983 1984
    I II III IV I II III IV
    5.1 9.3 8.1 8.5 8 7.1 3.9 3.3

    On top of that was the jobs created by those economic numbers which led to a net job gain.
    Again, he was fortunate to be in the second-half of a double dip recession, whereas Obama appears to have begun his presidency at the onset of a long-drawn out recession. They are not similar. However, Obama has not finished his term, so it isn't fair to criticize him just yet. At least give him a couple more quarters before you stand in judgment.

    May I assume if GDP starts growing by 4% and more after this quarter you will support Obama?

    *Edit to add:

    Good night, I assume we will continue this discussion manana.
    Last edited by whysoserious; 10-26-11 at 12:27 AM.

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