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Thread: Majority expects Obama to lose re-election

  1. #31
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    Re: Majority expects Obama to lose re-election

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Let's hope the people are right once again.


    j-mac
    Once again eh?



    But that would mean they were right to elect him in the first place wouldn't it?

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    Re: Majority expects Obama to lose re-election

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    I will agree there is not a major difference between the parties. I wish the difference was as stark as many like to pretend it is. Sadly, it isn't.
    this election, i think we're gonna get that. but you are right that in 2008, we didn't.

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    Re: Majority expects Obama to lose re-election

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    this election, i think we're gonna get that. but you are right that in 2008, we didn't.
    Not a chance. We'll get what we always get. Rhetoric that partisans will buy into, and just as easily forget once the election is over. Liberal nutters will be all over any republican elected, and conservative nutters will still be doing birther **** if Obama is reelected. Little to nothing will actually change. The reality is we haven't changed, so they won't change.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Majority expects Obama to lose re-election

    If the economy continues to struggle and the unemployment rate remains elevated with little prospect of a meaningful decline, the President most definitely will be beatable. At this point, my guess is that Governor Romney might have the best chance at unseating President Obama, but he might not be the only candidate who could do so.

    Governor Perry has imploded in the early debates and I'm not sure he can recover from that situation. Moreover, the Republicans can ill-afford to nominate a candidate who is not an effective speaker and strong debater (Senator McCain's struggles on that front offer just a recent example; leaders need to be able to communicate effectively). Former Speaker Gingrich (bad organizational abilities in his campaign), Herman Cain (no concrete governing experience/straw poll results are not the same thing as primary outcomes/recent shots at Governor Christie who has made some really tough decisions won't endear him to fiscal conservatives), Ron Paul (has shown little ability to broaden his base/recent comments on the Awlaki strike are not in the mainstream), Governor Huntsman (had too few campaign events since entering the campaign and missed a chance to gain public recognition), Senator Santorum (still largely a social conservative at a time when economics is by far the main challenge facing the country) have little chance. They almost certainly won't win the Republican nomination. Michele Bachmann has been fading, but Governor Perry's decline might provide her a renewed chance. Whether she capitalizes remains to be seen (I don't believe she will).

    In the end, despite all the recent developments, the landscape is again shifting toward a Romney nomination. While Governor Romney might not be the "perfect" candidate in the minds of Republicans, the combination of what he offers (practical governing experience, private sector experience, competent debater, and seasoning from the 2008 election) will probably be enough to consolidate enough support to gain the nomination. In the general election, the state of the economy will be the top factor. Second, Republicans could be motivated by the opportunity to vote out President Obama, hence even if they lack passion for Governor Romney, they'll still turn out at the polls. Of course, the election outcome is far from certain, but a continued relatively stagnant economy will probably give the edge to the Republicans.

    President Obama could win if the economy is improving and/or the Republicans nominate a candidate who is simply not cut out for the office (some of those mentioned previously as having little chance).
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 10-05-11 at 10:54 AM.

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    Re: Majority expects Obama to lose re-election

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Not a chance. We'll get what we always get. Rhetoric that partisans will buy into, and just as easily forget once the election is over
    pre-Tea Party that might have been true. but now we live in a political world where all but 4 House Republicans voted to dramatically alter Medicare and drastically short the budget. we live in a political world where Ron Paul can poll within the margin of error against an incumbent Democrat.

    the conservative movement is in charge of the Republican party, and they don't trust the Republican party. we're going to see an actual conflict of visions rather than just a variation on the same direction this time around, methinks.

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    Re: Majority expects Obama to lose re-election

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    pre-Tea Party that might have been true. but now we live in a political world where all but 4 House Republicans voted to dramatically alter Medicare and drastically short the budget. we live in a political world where Ron Paul can poll within the margin of error against an incumbent Democrat.

    the conservative movement is in charge of the Republican party, and they don't trust the Republican party. we're going to see an actual conflict of visions rather than just a variation on the same direction this time around, methinks.
    Nope. They only vote that way because they are in power. Republicans have always made such bold moves when they are nto in power and they know it won't fly. Democrats do this as well. There really is little difference. Just those you can count on to buy it no matter many times they are fooled.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

  7. #37
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    Re: Majority expects Obama to lose re-election

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Let's hope the people are right once again.


    j-mac
    Voters didn't "expect" Truman to win either. The question was not who would you support, it was do you expect him to win. It's entirely possible that people are uncertain that doesn't mean they are voting Republican.

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    Re: Majority expects Obama to lose re-election

    the conservative movement is in charge of the Republican party, and they don't trust the Republican party. we're going to see an actual conflict of visions rather than just a variation on the same direction this time around, methinks
    .

    I hear this a lot, and I was kind of hopeful at first. We need more anti-establishment people getting tired of moneyed interests and special interests controlling Washington......then the Tea Party platform came out...and they lost me. It's social conservatism mixed with pro-establishment policies. Cutting regulations on big corporations, cutting taxes on the wealthy and corporations.....you guys are not anti-establishment!
    Last edited by iliveonramen; 10-05-11 at 12:16 PM. Reason: fat fingers

  9. #39
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    Re: Majority expects Obama to lose re-election

    I see Obama's chances are pretty good for re-election. Every Republican candidate has the exact same plans as every Republican candidate going back to Reagan. They're essentially all saying the exact same thing, just putting a different wrapper on it. I don't there are enough brainwashed voters available to put another lower regulations and cutting taxes Republican in office again.

    Not to mention the fact that none of the Republican front runners are good enough to debate against Obama. Ron Paul or Gengrich would be the only ones capable of taking him in televised debate, the rest would lose.
    A man without fear is a fool, a man that succumbs to his fear is a coward and a brave man acknowledges fear yet presses on.
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    Re: Majority expects Obama to lose re-election

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Nope. They only vote that way because they are in power
    Republicans took the house and passed the Ryan budget - putting all of them on record. if they had stuck to rhetoric you would have a better point here.


    I agree they can't be trusted - I'm only pointing out that now you have a large grassroots (looks like possibly on both sides of the aisle) determined to hold their respective parties' feet to the fire.


    the Tea Party is going to drive Republican politics in 2012. Democrat politics? could be driven by this Occupy Wall Street crowd. now that is going to be fun.

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