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Thread: Solyndra to Declare Bankruptcy

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    Re: Solyndra to Declare Bankruptcy

    Quote Originally Posted by LesGovt View Post
    Intensified hurricanes? We have had major hurricanes many years ago. I have yet to see higher sea levels. As for famine, there has been famine during every century.
    It's the same thing we were discussing about global warming in general. It's not binary. There will be more hurricanes and the ones that happen will be worse. The sea levels have risen, but when that really gets scary is when ice shelves melt off, which hasn't happened yet. By comparison, we haven't seen anything yet. Same with famine- not binary. More famine.

    Quote Originally Posted by LesGovt View Post
    That cannot happen. Remember, we have alternative energy that will become efficient and cost-effective before that happens. If that is not possible, then alternative energy has been hyped and is not a real solution. As for the fear-mongering, I'll leave that to you folks.
    It is possible, but like all great accomplishments, it isn't easy. We need to get off our butts and get cracking on it big time.

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    Re: Solyndra to Declare Bankruptcy

    Quote Originally Posted by LesGovt View Post
    No, that's not true. Teamosil took the right approach when he asked me which it was. Please do not assume.
    Thanks for the clarification. You cleared it up decently here too:

    Quote Originally Posted by LesGovt View Post

    I am saying neither. I am saying that I don't know whether or not carbon emissions are causing any part of the global warming. Since I do not know, I do not want to spend money in a rash way to prevent something that may not be preventable. Also, fifty, sixty, or even eighty years is a short time span for life on earth. If alternative fuels are viable, there is no reason why they should not be up and running in an efficient and cost-effective way in that time span. If carbon emissions does cause some portion of the warming, then it would be reduced greatly when the alternative fuels came on-line.
    You don't know, but the experts in the field are pretty darned sure, and a lot of those people are saying we need to push these alternatives faster, because there's still a lot of damage "in the pipe" after we do stop. (it takes quite a while for a new equilibrium to be reached, between the massive thermal inertia that a whole planet has and the various feedbacks that take a while to settle out) There may even be pretty serious "tipping points," where if you exceed them, feedbacks kick in and push you a lot further than you would think. Of particular concern is the staggering amounts of methane stored in Russian permafrost, it's melting now and starting to release.

    We can't wait 50, 60, or 80 years. Things are changing too fast. While the magnitude of the current change may not seem like a lot, the rate is highly unusual. Comparing the fossil record to historical rapid shifts in climate of this rate, you find a disturbing correlation between extinction events and major climate shifts.

    CO2 is definitely causing some part of global warming. That part is basic physics. Yes, there's more research to be done to fine-tune things, but it is well-established now that CO2 is the major driver over the last 50 years or so. (first half of the 20th century had a major solar influence also, sun was increasing output)

    You said you don't know. You have two options:
    1) Read the scientific literature yourself and come to a conclusion. (there's a lot, so put some time into it!)
    2) Accept what other people tell you.

    If you're going to do (2), that's fine. Listen to who you like. But don't you think that a 97% agreement between experts in this field is good enough to take action on?
    He touched her over her bra and underpants, she says, and guided her hand to touch him over his underwear
    Quote Originally Posted by Lutherf View Post
    We’ll say what? Something like “nothing happened” ... Yeah, we might say something like that.

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    Re: Solyndra to Declare Bankruptcy

    Quote Originally Posted by teamosil View Post
    It's the same thing we were discussing about global warming in general. It's not binary. There will be more hurricanes and the ones that happen will be worse. The sea levels have risen, but when that really gets scary is when ice shelves melt off, which hasn't happened yet. By comparison, we haven't seen anything yet. Same with famine- not binary. More famine.
    We'll see if what you say is true.

    Quote Originally Posted by teamosil View Post
    It is possible, but like all great accomplishments, it isn't easy. We need to get off our butts and get cracking on it big time.
    I agree.

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    Re: Solyndra to Declare Bankruptcy

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Thanks for the clarification. You cleared it up decently here too:

    You don't know, but the experts in the field are pretty darned sure, and a lot of those people are saying we need to push these alternatives faster, because there's still a lot of damage "in the pipe" after we do stop. (it takes quite a while for a new equilibrium to be reached, between the massive thermal inertia that a whole planet has and the various feedbacks that take a while to settle out) There may even be pretty serious "tipping points," where if you exceed them, feedbacks kick in and push you a lot further than you would think. Of particular concern is the staggering amounts of methane stored in Russian permafrost, it's melting now and starting to release.

    We can't wait 50, 60, or 80 years. Things are changing too fast. While the magnitude of the current change may not seem like a lot, the rate is highly unusual. Comparing the fossil record to historical rapid shifts in climate of this rate, you find a disturbing correlation between extinction events and major climate shifts.

    CO2 is definitely causing some part of global warming. That part is basic physics. Yes, there's more research to be done to fine-tune things, but it is well-established now that CO2 is the major driver over the last 50 years or so. (first half of the 20th century had a major solar influence also, sun was increasing output)

    You said you don't know. You have two options:
    1) Read the scientific literature yourself and come to a conclusion. (there's a lot, so put some time into it!)
    2) Accept what other people tell you.

    If you're going to do (2), that's fine. Listen to who you like. But don't you think that a 97% agreement between experts in this field is good enough to take action on?
    Which of the following articles would you suggest I read?

    Surveyed scientists agree global warming is real - CNN

    Global Warming Petition Project

    The Case Against Global Warming—and How Believers Respond - WSJ.com

    Argument Against Global Warming, "The Greatest Scam In History!"

    Global Warming or Just Hot Air? A Dozen Different Views | LiveScience

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    Re: Solyndra to Declare Bankruptcy

    I would suggest that you don't read any of them, given that none of them are written by accredited scientific journals. I would instead suggest that you read the executive summaries of IPCC reports I - IV.

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    Re: Solyndra to Declare Bankruptcy

    I have a question for all of you who believe that global warming is an imminent threat. Could you please provide a timeline as to bad events that will occur and the approximate year in which each event will occur? Thanks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LesGovt View Post
    I have a question for all of you who believe that global warming is an imminent threat. Could you please provide a timeline as to bad events that will occur and the approximate year in which each event will occur? Thanks.
    Of course not. We can describe many trends however, including increases in: number and extent of wildfires, crop losses due to drought and heavy precipitation, coastal flooding, number and severity of summer heat waves, extinction rates, ocean acidification, sea and land ice melt, and the long term severity of hurricanes... for example.

    The identification of trends on a long-term timescale (20+ years) does not require or imply a specific predictive ability on so fine a scale. That should be self-evident.
    "A witty saying proves nothing." Voltaire

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    Re: Solyndra to Declare Bankruptcy

    Quote Originally Posted by nijato View Post
    Of course not. We can describe many trends however, including increases in: number and extent of wildfires, crop losses due to drought and heavy precipitation, coastal flooding, number and severity of summer heat waves, extinction rates, ocean acidification, sea and land ice melt, and the long term severity of hurricanes... for example.

    The identification of trends on a long-term timescale (20+ years) does not require or imply a specific predictive ability on so fine a scale. That should be self-evident.
    Teamosil said that water levels are rising. If that is the case, I would think that flooding of NYC would be predictable within a range of years. Are you saying this cannot be done?

    Does everyone agree with nijato's assessment?

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    Re: Solyndra to Declare Bankruptcy

    Quote Originally Posted by teamosil View Post
    Green energy is a newish industry. We'll presumably see 100s or 1,000s of green energy businesses go under as it sorts itself out. Nothing unusual about that. That's how biotech is, that's how software is, that's how all big booms work. That's how innovation works.
    Ok, then the god damn gov't needs to stay the **** out of that volatile industry and stop throwing taxpayer money at it in hopes that it succeeds.
    Last edited by dontworrybehappy; 09-08-11 at 04:26 PM.

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    Re: Solyndra to Declare Bankruptcy

    Quote Originally Posted by LesGovt View Post
    Teamosil said that water levels are rising. If that is the case, I would think that flooding of NYC would be predictable within a range of years. Are you saying this cannot be done?

    Does everyone agree with nijato's assessment?
    Yeah, he's right. You can't predict these sorts of things exactly. After all, we're talking about weather here. And any predictions need to be based on projections of how much greenhouse gas the world will release each year, which is very tough to predict exactly. But you can definitely predict long term trends and effects that various factors have and make very informed decisions based on those things.

    As for NYC specifically, realistically it won't ever go under water. It's worth too much. They'll build dykes and whatnot for real estate that valuable. But it will cost them many billions of dollars to deal with the impact of sea level rise. New York City alone has 600 miles of coastline and 4 of the 5 boroughs are islands. It is almost all built very close to sea level. So, the cost of a project like that would be enormous. They're currently predicting up to 23 inches of sea level rise by the end of the century in New York. That may not sound like much, but it means hundreds of miles of dykes, massive changes to drainage and water treatment systems, etc. And that is just for the sea level rise. The heat in general means much larger demands on its electrical grid in summer, public health problems related to heat, moving critical infrastructure further away from the shore line to make it less vulnerable to hurricanes and whatnot, etc. Just for New York City alone, we're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars fighting the effects of global warming.

    As for predicting when, that question doesn't really line up with the facts. Some costs have already begun to show up. It isn't like one day it will be above water and everything will be great, the next it will all be flooded. The water level will raise by a fraction of an inch per year. The very lowest areas will have a bit more damage in storms than they would have otherwise, then maybe they'll start improving drainage systems, then eventually they'll have to build a couple dykes, then a few more, etc. But, by the end of the century they're looking at massive costs from it.

    One thing that is important to keep in mind is that AGW doesn't work like we can cut carbon emissions and then the next day everything is back to normal. The effects last many decades. Changes in our behavior today more than our behavior at the end of the century, determine how things will be climatalogically at the end of the century.

    But, that's just one city. The costs nationwide will be much higher. By the end of the century they are projecting that nationwide we will face around $1.9 trillion/year in global warming costs if we do nothing to abate the problem at all.
    Last edited by teamosil; 09-08-11 at 04:56 PM.

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