Obama's approval rating has been dropping. I really don't see him winning reelection if this trend continues. The economy will be the defining issue in 2012 and if the economic condition of the country has not improved than Obama has no shot at reelection. I think Obama won the election largely because of Bush's low approval rating, the state of the economy, and the voting populace not willing to trust Republicans with the economy anymore. The same feelings will apply towards Obama when he tries to win reelection.