Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

Gill said:

Correct. Looks like some wind shear will further weaken the storm as it passes the Outer Banks. With that said though, it will still be a VERY dangerous storm and a large number of structures will be damaged. Extensive power loss should be expected as trees begin falling on lines. The insurance industry is taking a beating this year since there will undoubtedly be a billion or more dollars damage to structures and vehicles.

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No doubt this could be very expensive. It does surprise me, though, that the models don't show more weakening as it drags along the DELMARVA coast. I wouldn't be surprised if it was down to tropical storm strength by the time it hits NY/NJ. Fingers crossed.

A friend of mine who lives in NJ is getting evacuated. Red Cross has already started texting me about ways I can help.

One the NOON News here they went out to Detroit Metro Airport and interviewed people waiting in line for flights to the East Coast. It was quite amusing in a sick sort of way.

Everyone is acting like this is the first time that New England states are getting the leftovers from a mid-size hurricane that hit it strongest in the Carolinas.

:roll:

Caine said:

Everyone is acting like this is the first time that New England states are getting the leftovers from a mid-size hurricane that hit it strongest in the Carolinas.

:roll:

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Carolinas are use to it though. When I lived in Myrtle Beach hurricanes were nothing, but if you don't get them very much you don't know how to respond. It was like when SC got 6 inches of snow last winter. People were freaking out and it was nothing to me.

Just out of curiosity, how many posting on this thread have experienced hurricanes? Because what I'm not reading is the understanding of how unpredictable they are. Nobody knows what Irene will do.

1. Weather Channel is Downgrading 5-10 mph (now 100 mph) as some dry air my be entering circulation. Somewhat good News.

Not so good:
2. NYC Starts Mandatory Evacuation of New Yorkers in Zone A (270,000)

NYC Starts MANDATORY EVACUATION Of All New Yorkers In Zone A: Gothamist

Mayor Bloomberg said the city would start a mandatory evacuation of residents in Zone A areas—
this includes Brooklyn's Coney Island and Manhattan Beach, Far Rockaway and Broad Channel in Queens, South Beach, Midland Beach,
and other low-lying areas on Staten Island, and Manhattan's Battery Park City
(see Map below).

He admitted, "We've Never done a mandatory evacuation before. But this is a serious storm. We need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best," and warned, "This is very serious. Do not be fooled by the sun outside.
"Bloomberg said all residents need to be out by 5 p.m. tomorrow (8/27)—"If you can leave today, that would be helpful...At the moment the strongest winds are expected to arrive in the early evening tomorrow. It is expected to be a category 1 storm. The full brunt of the storm—if you are in its way—is a lot more powerful than any of us."
[.......]

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NYC Mayor orders Mandatory Evacuations - WSJ.com

"...Bloomberg said at a briefing Friday that emergency shelters will be opened at 4 p.m.

The low-lying areas are scattered across the city and are home to about 270,000 residents. They include parts of Battery Park City, Coney Island and the Rockaways.

Bloomberg calls the mandatory evacuations a first."..."

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Also, Atlantic City Casinos-- shut (of course) as is most of the NJ coast.

nota bene said:

Just out of curiosity, how many posting on this thread have experienced hurricanes? Because what I'm not reading is the understanding of how unpredictable they are. Nobody knows what Irene will do.

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Yeah, that's what I was trying to say above. I've been through about 10 hurricanes and probably a dozen tropical storms.

Accuracy has improved but they still miss from time to time. You can generally tell how good the prediction is by checking how closely the models agree. The model tracks have been very tight with Irene.

Guys, I know that mbig may come across as alarmist, but we need to take this storm seriously. At least those who live in or near its path.

Right now, there's a chance this thing is going to make a direct hit on New York City. And even if it's just a sideswipe--which would almost certainly happen if the direct hit does not--hurricanes usually bring TONS of rain. Not good when we're only talking the biggest city in America, which isn't exactly used to full-blown hurricanes. Furthermore, it isn't the winds per se that tend to pose the greatest risk but the storm surge. That's why the evacuations in NYC are, for now, in the low-lying areas.

All we can hope is that this thing lightens in intensity before making landfall. Because make no mistake, people are going to die this weekend because of this storm and because they did not heed the warnings.

nota bene said:

Just out of curiosity, how many posting on this thread have experienced hurricanes? Because what I'm not reading is the understanding of how unpredictable they are. Nobody knows what Irene will do.

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Been in two, including the eye of one. They were Cat-1 storms, though.

Phys251 said:

Guys, I know that mbig may come across as alarmist, but we need to take this storm seriously. At least those who live in or near its path.

Right now, there's a chance this thing is going to make a direct hit on New York City. And even if it's just a sideswipe--which would almost certainly happen if the direct hit does not--hurricanes usually bring TONS of rain. Not good when we're only talking the biggest city in America, which isn't exactly used to full-blown hurricanes. Furthermore, it isn't the winds per se that tend to pose the greatest risk but the storm surge. That's why the evacuations in NYC are, for now, in the low-lying areas.

All we can hope is that this thing lightens in intensity before making landfall. Because make no mistake, people are going to die this weekend because of this storm and because they did not heed the warnings.

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No one is saying that y'all shouldn't prepare. That is absolutely necessary. I've been through 10 hurricanes, but I've probably *prepared* for 30!

AdamT said:

No one is saying that y'all shouldn't prepare. That is absolutely necessary. I've been through 10 hurricanes, but I've probably *prepared* for 30!

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Let's just hope everyone does. One saving grace about this storm is that it's hitting on a weekend. Traffic's gonna be a nightmare this evening, though...

nota bene said:

Just out of curiosity, how many posting on this thread have experienced hurricanes? Because what I'm not reading is the understanding of how unpredictable they are. Nobody knows what Irene will do.

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Ironically, I've heard here in NYC, some of the 'snowbirds,' have flown to Florida to escape a Hurricane. :^)
Unable to go other homes on Long Island, southern Connecticut, etc.

nota bene said:

Just out of curiosity, how many posting on this thread have experienced hurricanes? Because what I'm not reading is the understanding of how unpredictable they are. Nobody knows what Irene will do.

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I'm a Florida cracker, so I've been through many hurricanes, especially throughout that last decade.

I haven't read the rest of this thread, so I don't know what the temper of this thread has been. However, I should point out that the reason to be so cautious is because of how unpredictable they are. Meteorologists never really know what a hurricane will do until after it does it. That's why it's important to take them very seriously.

I haven't been keeping up to date on all the details with regards to Irene. However, from what I've seen the major danger to the NE coast is flooding. Apparently, the NE has experienced quite a bit of rain and the soil is now saturated with water. The rain combined with the surge may cause flooding.

Now, I'm not a professional meteorologist by any means. However, my amateur guessing also suspects that another danger is that the houses along the NE coast are not built to hurricane code. In areas of the construction boom, I'm sure that there may be a large number of homes that were put up very quickly with materials that are not designed to withstand hurricane force winds. This makes those homes a danger if they collapse on their tenants.

Another danger is that the power lines may not be built to withstand hurricane force winds either. That will be very rough on the urban areas of the NE, of which there is much.

Or so I've heard. I've never lived in the NE so I don't really know what their infrastructure is like or what it is capable of withstanding. I'm sure that much of that kind of infrastructure is designed to resist blizzards and the like. However, I don't know if it's capable of resisting what Irene is dishing out.

Can anyone else comment on that?

Either way, I'd definitely listen to the authorities and prepare for the worse. Here in Florida, I do anyways every August by buying cases of canned food and bottled water and keeping it in stock just in case.

Looks like it may make landfall on the Outer Banks tonight, then head up the East Coast to the Northeast.

Sure would be nice if this thing would take a sudden turn offshore, but that does not appear likely.

If this storm gets a direct hit on NYC, the effects really could be disastrous, depending on the size and direction of the storm surge. I don't know how many of you have actually been to NYC, but I have, and frankly even a 10' surge would flood the subways and most of Manhattan. If the surge pushes the Hudson River back on itself, the effect could be doubled or tripled. NYC is basically all built slightly above sea level. A ten-foot tsunami heading through downtown is nothing to sneer at.

Hopefully this won't end up being a "perfect storm" or worst-case scenario. But when public officials of major cities turn white and grim, they are definitely worried.

I hope everyone in the path of this storm takes prudent safety precautions, and comes through okay. Sending good thoughts your way.

NYC subways close at noon tomorrow through Monday.

Good luck to all of you in the path of this storm. I'll be watching and thinking of you all. Please stay safe.

hiswoman said:

Good luck to all of you in the path of this storm. I'll be watching and thinking of you all. Please stay safe.

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I just popped in to say what hW said. For those of you in the path, be careful, be safe, know you are in mine and I think every one's thoughts and prayers.

Batten down the hatches! Swab the poop deck! Trim the mizzen and don't forget your galoshes!

Pisser about it is the electric will be out for a good while.... time to catch up on my reading!

Ockham said:

Batten down the hatches! Swab the poop deck! Trim the mizzen and don't forget your galoshes!

Pisser about it is the electric will be out for a good while.... time to catch up on my reading!

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Kindles are awesome when the power goes out if you got one of those little LED lights for it.

Phys251 said:

Guys, I know that mbig may come across as alarmist, but we need to take this storm seriously. At least those who live in or near its path.

Right now, there's a chance this thing is going to make a direct hit on New York City. And even if it's just a sideswipe--which would almost certainly happen if the direct hit does not--hurricanes usually bring TONS of rain. Not good when we're only talking the biggest city in America, which isn't exactly used to full-blown hurricanes. Furthermore, it isn't the winds per se that tend to pose the greatest risk but the storm surge. That's why the evacuations in NYC are, for now, in the low-lying areas.

All we can hope is that this thing lightens in intensity before making landfall. Because make no mistake, people are going to die this weekend because of this storm and because they did not heed the warnings.

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I don't think I was "alarmist" at all.

What happened was a Few Aholes tried to paint me so.
Some for political reasons, other for personal ones.
I have dealt with them previously.
I was No more "alarmist" than any MSM outlet. Probably Less.

This story arguably one of the most important of the year if much larger time period.
"looking Like Disastrous" is hardly overstating the case.
CNN now saying because of the Rare track, a "200 year Hurricane."

So please, Don't apologize for me.
NONE is necessary.
Rather than taking the perceived middle road/triangulation, (Playing Mr Reasonable) see if you can figure out what Objective really was for this Major, possibly even larger story. Then criticize the deservant rather than inappropriately apologizing for me.

Some of my posts, a few in response to those jerkoffs trying to do the painting. (and some of Them now Vanished as They realize the Actual weight of this story:

mbig said:

Cat 1, IMO would Cost Tens Billions of Dollars, Knock out power, Damage too many buildings and homes to count.
Even a strong Tropical storm this large is going to be very bad.

'Mere' 70-85 mph winds it looks like ... almost never happen in a wide area.
Most Buildings/skyscrapers (esp windows) have never been tested in Prolonged winds that looked likely.
Major Burbs for Hundreds of miles will get Creamed with down trees, power lines, etc.

There hasn't been a NE Metropolitan area hit like this in a century.
The last Disaster 1938, It was stronger true, totally destroyed Eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, etc.

Everyone's been hoping it takes the traditional East jog.. but Models having it inching ever more West.
Cone center is just about up the Hudson River. (after Crushing AC, Philly, etc)

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mbig said:

It was corrected to "NE" and that is Humongous in population/area compared to places you mention. That Is the point of the thread.
It isn't Katrina than goodness.

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mbig said:

Another who missed the point.
'Cat 1' is Indeed No biggie... but try running it up the heaviest populated portion/400+ miles of I-95.
Lotsa damage at 85 mph.

Hopefully it will Weaken to 40-50 mph and leave even more minimal damage.
Not the Forecast now however.

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mbig said:

You need to watch the News.
I suggest CNN or The Weather Channel who will tell you how rare it indeed is. Unique for the NE.
As will State-of-Emergency Gov Christie, a Native NJ boy on the last page.

I really miss Neg Reps.

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mbig said:

It's not so much the strength as the location.
The proverbial I-95 'Megalopolis' and it's burbs.

Even 70-80 mph winds up the heart of that corridor are going to be very damaging.
Vast areas that haven't been hit in a generation by anything - or Never hit are probably going to have problems.
It's really problems for so many rather than a Monster for a few.

I'd guess losses in prime-time Bookings alone to Resorts (Hotels, Restaurants, etc) from NC's Outer Banks extending North to Maine are already a Billion dollars.
(NC, VA, DE, MD, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, NH, ME)

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And again...
This may turn out less damaging than Every conceivable Expert predicts.
That still wouldn't make my posts "alarmist", just an accurate state of the available info.

Redress said:

I just popped in to say what hW said. For those of you in the path, be careful, be safe, know you are in mine and I think every one's thoughts and prayers.

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Ditto. I hope everyone stays safe and sending out good vibes.

Stay safe, you guys. And don't forget your furbabies.

Getting rain from the outer bands right now.

Luckily this storm is now a category 1 instead of a category 3 as predicted.

Landfall at Cape Lookout is imminent.

80,000 in NC without power.