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Thread: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Just out of curiosity, how many posting on this thread have experienced hurricanes? Because what I'm not reading is the understanding of how unpredictable they are. Nobody knows what Irene will do.

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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    1. Weather Channel is Downgrading 5-10 mph (now 100 mph) as some dry air my be entering circulation. Somewhat good News.

    Not so good:
    2. NYC Starts Mandatory Evacuation of New Yorkers in Zone A (270,000)

    NYC Starts MANDATORY EVACUATION Of All New Yorkers In Zone A: Gothamist

    Mayor Bloomberg said the city would start a mandatory evacuation of residents in Zone A areas—
    this includes Brooklyn's Coney Island and Manhattan Beach, Far Rockaway and Broad Channel in Queens, South Beach, Midland Beach,
    and other low-lying areas on Staten Island, and Manhattan's Battery Park City
    (see Map below).

    He admitted, "We've Never done a mandatory evacuation before. But this is a serious storm. We need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best," and warned, "This is very serious. Do not be fooled by the sun outside.
    "Bloomberg said all residents need to be out by 5 p.m. tomorrow (8/27)—"If you can leave today, that would be helpful...At the moment the strongest winds are expected to arrive in the early evening tomorrow. It is expected to be a category 1 storm. The full brunt of the storm—if you are in its way—is a lot more powerful than any of us."
    [.......]
    NYC Mayor orders Mandatory Evacuations - WSJ.com
    "...Bloomberg said at a briefing Friday that emergency shelters will be opened at 4 p.m.

    The low-lying areas are scattered across the city and are home to about 270,000 residents. They include parts of Battery Park City, Coney Island and the Rockaways.

    Bloomberg calls the mandatory evacuations a first."..."
    Also, Atlantic City Casinos-- shut (of course) as is most of the NJ coast.
    Last edited by mbig; 08-26-11 at 05:57 PM.
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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by nota bene View Post
    Just out of curiosity, how many posting on this thread have experienced hurricanes? Because what I'm not reading is the understanding of how unpredictable they are. Nobody knows what Irene will do.
    Yeah, that's what I was trying to say above. I've been through about 10 hurricanes and probably a dozen tropical storms.

    Accuracy has improved but they still miss from time to time. You can generally tell how good the prediction is by checking how closely the models agree. The model tracks have been very tight with Irene.

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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Guys, I know that mbig may come across as alarmist, but we need to take this storm seriously. At least those who live in or near its path.

    Right now, there's a chance this thing is going to make a direct hit on New York City. And even if it's just a sideswipe--which would almost certainly happen if the direct hit does not--hurricanes usually bring TONS of rain. Not good when we're only talking the biggest city in America, which isn't exactly used to full-blown hurricanes. Furthermore, it isn't the winds per se that tend to pose the greatest risk but the storm surge. That's why the evacuations in NYC are, for now, in the low-lying areas.

    All we can hope is that this thing lightens in intensity before making landfall. Because make no mistake, people are going to die this weekend because of this storm and because they did not heed the warnings.
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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by nota bene View Post
    Just out of curiosity, how many posting on this thread have experienced hurricanes? Because what I'm not reading is the understanding of how unpredictable they are. Nobody knows what Irene will do.
    Been in two, including the eye of one. They were Cat-1 storms, though.
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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by Phys251 View Post
    Guys, I know that mbig may come across as alarmist, but we need to take this storm seriously. At least those who live in or near its path.

    Right now, there's a chance this thing is going to make a direct hit on New York City. And even if it's just a sideswipe--which would almost certainly happen if the direct hit does not--hurricanes usually bring TONS of rain. Not good when we're only talking the biggest city in America, which isn't exactly used to full-blown hurricanes. Furthermore, it isn't the winds per se that tend to pose the greatest risk but the storm surge. That's why the evacuations in NYC are, for now, in the low-lying areas.

    All we can hope is that this thing lightens in intensity before making landfall. Because make no mistake, people are going to die this weekend because of this storm and because they did not heed the warnings.
    No one is saying that y'all shouldn't prepare. That is absolutely necessary. I've been through 10 hurricanes, but I've probably *prepared* for 30!

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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    No one is saying that y'all shouldn't prepare. That is absolutely necessary. I've been through 10 hurricanes, but I've probably *prepared* for 30!
    Let's just hope everyone does. One saving grace about this storm is that it's hitting on a weekend. Traffic's gonna be a nightmare this evening, though...
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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by nota bene View Post
    Just out of curiosity, how many posting on this thread have experienced hurricanes? Because what I'm not reading is the understanding of how unpredictable they are. Nobody knows what Irene will do.
    Ironically, I've heard here in NYC, some of the 'snowbirds,' have flown to Florida to escape a Hurricane. :^)
    Unable to go other homes on Long Island, southern Connecticut, etc.
    Last edited by mbig; 08-26-11 at 06:08 PM.
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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by nota bene View Post
    Just out of curiosity, how many posting on this thread have experienced hurricanes? Because what I'm not reading is the understanding of how unpredictable they are. Nobody knows what Irene will do.
    I'm a Florida cracker, so I've been through many hurricanes, especially throughout that last decade.

    I haven't read the rest of this thread, so I don't know what the temper of this thread has been. However, I should point out that the reason to be so cautious is because of how unpredictable they are. Meteorologists never really know what a hurricane will do until after it does it. That's why it's important to take them very seriously.

    I haven't been keeping up to date on all the details with regards to Irene. However, from what I've seen the major danger to the NE coast is flooding. Apparently, the NE has experienced quite a bit of rain and the soil is now saturated with water. The rain combined with the surge may cause flooding.

    Now, I'm not a professional meteorologist by any means. However, my amateur guessing also suspects that another danger is that the houses along the NE coast are not built to hurricane code. In areas of the construction boom, I'm sure that there may be a large number of homes that were put up very quickly with materials that are not designed to withstand hurricane force winds. This makes those homes a danger if they collapse on their tenants.

    Another danger is that the power lines may not be built to withstand hurricane force winds either. That will be very rough on the urban areas of the NE, of which there is much.

    Or so I've heard. I've never lived in the NE so I don't really know what their infrastructure is like or what it is capable of withstanding. I'm sure that much of that kind of infrastructure is designed to resist blizzards and the like. However, I don't know if it's capable of resisting what Irene is dishing out.

    Can anyone else comment on that?

    Either way, I'd definitely listen to the authorities and prepare for the worse. Here in Florida, I do anyways every August by buying cases of canned food and bottled water and keeping it in stock just in case.
    Also, we need to legalize recreational drugs and prostitution.

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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Looks like it may make landfall on the Outer Banks tonight, then head up the East Coast to the Northeast.

    Sure would be nice if this thing would take a sudden turn offshore, but that does not appear likely.
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