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Thread: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

  1. #41
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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    Are you serious ???

    2 inches of snow in Georgia is hardly comparable to 70 - 90 mph winds, 10 - 15 inches of rain, and 15 to 20 foot storm surges. This WILL be a major disaster with billions of dollars in damages.

    When Hurricane Ike came through the Ohio Valley in 2008 with winds of 70 mph and NO rain, there were hundreds of millions of dollars in damage to buildings from west Kentucky to Cleveland.
    No doubt it is going to be a mess. But there's no need to exaggerate. Storm surge in the NE will be in the 3 - 6' range, not 15 - 20'.

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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    No doubt it is going to be a mess. But there's no need to exaggerate. Storm surge in the NE will be in the 3 - 6' range, not 15 - 20'.
    Storm surge damage will depend on the exact time of landfall. If it hits during high tide, damage will be intensified.

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    Storm surge damage will depend on the exact time of landfall. If it hits during high tide, damage will be intensified.
    That is true, and unfortunately this coincides with an unusually high "Spring" tide. But that doesn't change the actual storm surge. The storm surge comes on top of the tide reading. You would have to have a Cat 4 - Cat 5 storm to get a 20' storm surge.

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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    That is true, and unfortunately this coincides with an unusually high "Spring" tide. But that doesn't change the actual storm surge. The storm surge comes on top of the tide reading. You would have to have a Cat 4 - Cat 5 storm to get a 20' storm surge.
    Katrina was a Cat 3 storm at landfall on the Mississippi coast, but its storm surge was over 25'. I saw with my own eyes the damage from the storm surge along the entire Mississippi coast. The storm surge caused massive damage six miles inland.

    Actual storm surge depends on many factors.

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    Katrina was a Cat 3 storm at landfall on the Mississippi coast, but its storm surge was over 25'. I saw with my own eyes the damage from the storm surge along the entire Mississippi coast. The storm surge caused massive damage six miles inland.

    Actual storm surge depends on many factors.
    That's true, but Katrina was an anomoly. It weakened quite a bit at the last minute, but was still pushing water from it's more powerful phase. The second largest recorded storm surge was around 23' -- associated with Cat 5 Hurricane Camille in 1969.

    "Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
    Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey."

    Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England : Weather Underground

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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by justabubba View Post
    the good thing about this
    in very little time we will be able to see which side's predictions hold water


    [weak ass pun intended]
    It's Not a matter of which side 'Will' be right or wrong.
    It's a matter of posting what is accurate At the Time of that posting. (as the News "Breaks")
    Everyone hopes it will be less than predicted and the predictions themselves will be better as time passes.
    Last edited by mbig; 08-26-11 at 12:07 PM.
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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    That's true, but Katrina was an anomoly. It weakened quite a bit at the last minute, but was still pushing water from it's more powerful phase. The second largest recorded storm surge was around 23' -- associated with Cat 5 Hurricane Camille in 1969.

    "Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
    Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey."

    Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England : Weather Underground
    thanks for providing a quote confirming my initial statement on the possible storm surge.

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by mbig View Post
    It's Not a matter of which side 'Will' be right or wrong.
    It's a matter of posting what is accurate At the Time of that posting. (as the News "Breaks")
    Everyone hopes it will be less than predicted and the predictions themselves will be better as time passes.
    actually, in very little time we WILL be able to see whether those who insist this storm will be massively destructive or those who believe the hype is overblown* were accurate in their predictions

    no weaseling out of those positions now

    *weak pun again intended
    we are negotiating about dividing a pizza and in the meantime israel is eating it
    once you're over the hill you begin to pick up speed

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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Here's hoping that news organizations act responsibly and don't put reporters right on the beach in 100+ mph winds. That is dangerous and useless.

  10. #50
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    Re: Hurricane Irene: looking Like Major Disaster for Northeast

    Quote Originally Posted by justabubba View Post
    actually, in very little time we WILL be able to see whether those who insist this storm will be massively destructive or those who believe the hype is overblown* were accurate in their predictions

    no weaseling out of those positions now

    *weak pun again intended
    Wrong as Always and just Contradicts my last with No reason.
    This is Weather.
    It changes hourly, Daily.
    The OP/Title "Looking Like Major Disaster" (NOT "WILL" be Major Disaster"), which was absolutely accurate when posted and will Remain so no matter the outcome.
    English/Simple logic Please.
    Last edited by mbig; 08-26-11 at 12:37 PM.
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    anon

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