• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

Taylor

DP Veteran
Joined
Aug 31, 2009
Messages
29,961
Reaction score
13,777
Location
US
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Ouch.

U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3% - WSJ.com
The U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace than expected in the spring as consumers cut back on spending, while revisions showed the slowdown since the beginning of the year was much more drastic than previously thought.

The Commerce Department Friday said gross domestic product rose at an annualized seasonally adjusted rate of 1.3% in April through June, while first-quarter growth was revised down sharply to a 0.4% rate from the earlier estimate of a 1.9% gain. A big reason behind the downward revision in first-quarter growth was that the inventory buildup by companies was less than initially estimated, while outlays by the federal government and consumers were also revised down.

BAD: GDP Misses Estimates At 1.3%, Q1 Revised Down To Just 0.4%
GDP just missed expectations at 1.3%.

Analysts were looking for 1.8%.

Even worse, perhaps: Q1 GDP was revised from 1.9% all the way down to 0.4%, which is stunning.

Personal consumption, which was expected to grow by 0.8%, only grew by 0.1%.

Bad all around

Stocks diving now over 1% in the pre-market.

I know somebody had predicted 1.3%, but it was certainly a low-ball estimate. I expected the 1st quarter to revised down (just because that's been the trend) but never would have guessed 0.4%??

The graph of the recovery now looks like you threw something off a building and it hit bottom and took a small bounce.

Bernancke is of course assuring us that the next few months will be better... :notlook:

Core inflation:
Up 1.6% last quarter and 2.1% this quarter.
 
Core inflation: Up 1.6% last quarter and 2.1% this quarter.
"Not to worry" Bernanke assures us.

We should forget all this and get back to ensuring that we raise the debt ceiling under the guise of some pretend "cuts" to take on a couple more trillion dollars. After all, it's the "responsible" "adult" thing to do.

Following the example of our great President, one should always seek "balance" when it comes to negotiations, but avoid it all cost when it comes to budgets.
 
Debt overhang remains a drag. From 2010Q1 to 2011 Q1 (domestic nonfinancial debt figures are not yet available for Q2), domestic nonfinancial debt rose a brisk $2.35 for every dollar of GDP. The federal government and corporations led the way in this increasing leverage. That will become more problematic as yields rise down the road. Meanwhile, household deleveraging continues. That continues to put a drag on personal consumption growth. Finally, in a whiff of what lies ahead as fiscal consolidation gets underway at some point in the future--fiscal consolidation creates a headwind early on, it's payoff is medium- and longer-term--a large part of Q1's near flat growth was the result of a 9.4% decline federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment (stimulus winddown and modest fiscal consolidation). Due to the nation's unsustainable fiscal trajectory, such consolidation is necessary. Otherwise, the overall cost of capital will eventually rise to levels that damp growth and worsen the nation's long-term imbalances. Current political dysfunction may result in some bump in interest rates, even if a crisis is averted and no credit downgrade occurs, on account of a more riskier profile for the U.S.
 
"Not to worry" Bernanke assures us.

We should forget all this and get back to ensuring that we raise the debt ceiling under the guise of some pretend "cuts" to take on a couple more trillion dollars. After all, it's the "responsible" "adult" thing to do.

Following the example of our great President, one should always seek "balance" when it comes to negotiations, but avoid it all cost when it comes to budgets.

:roll:

The markets work on confidence. The pony show of not raising he debt ceiling has done nothing to improve confidence. To the contrary, it has directly resulted in hurting confidence and thereby hurting the markets. The longer the game goes on, the worse the impact will be.
 
"Not to worry" Bernanke assures us.

We should forget all this and get back to ensuring that we raise the debt ceiling under the guise of some pretend "cuts" to take on a couple more trillion dollars. After all, it's the "responsible" "adult" thing to do.

Following the example of our great President, one should always seek "balance" when it comes to negotiations, but avoid it all cost when it comes to budgets.

Guess I can now add those results to the growing list of Obama "successes" as the left continues to buy the rhetoric and ignore the actual results. The path to re-election is to focus on non result oriented issues in order to convince the brainwashed and braindead that "The One" truly cares and deserves another 4 years.

Obama record, 15.1 million officially unemployed TODAY 2 1/2 years later, 16.2% total unemployment or underemployment over 24 million TODAY, 4 trillion added to the debt as of the end of fiscal year 2011, and a rising misery index(7.83 to 12.67).
 
Market Plunges at Open on GDP, Debt Issues
The major averages posted losses approaching 1 percent, with the Standard & Poor's 500 drifting nearer to key moving averages that, if breached, could lead a stronger move lower. The damage was broad-based and evenly distributed, though materials were getting the worst of it early on. All 10 sectors on the S&P 500 were negative, with consumer staples showing the least damage.
CNBC

Economy grinds to halt
GDP report: Economy picks up to 1.3% growth in Q2 - Jul. 29, 2011


All we need now is a really negative report on jobs :(
Let's cross our fingers and hope that next Friday brings some better news.
 
donsutherland1 and CriticalThought are the only posters to this thread who make sense. If you pay attention to the economic indicators, you're really not throwing yourself into a panic over what's happened with the economic growth numbers. They are relatively close to what most economist expected. A -0.5% difference (1.8 - 1.3) isn't much to panic about. The economy's in the ballpark of analysist estimates.
 
The markets work on confidence.
Oh, really? Rather than spending all this money on foreign aid, maybe we should just send Tony Robbins out to Ethiopia or Zimbabwe and really get things pumping.
 
I'm not sure how anyone expects significant growth without significant hiring. Additionally, wages have been stagnant for some time now while real inflation has grown much more than the cooked books indicate.

People without disposable income can't buy many nonessential goods and services. In a 70 percent consumer spending GDP, that matters.
 
donsutherland1 and CriticalThought are the only posters to this thread who make sense. If you pay attention to the economic indicators, you're really not throwing yourself into a panic over what's happened with the economic growth numbers. They are relatively close to what most economist expected. A -0.5% difference (1.8 - 1.3) isn't much to panic about. The economy's in the ballpark of analysist estimates.

You don't see a problem with accepting such low expectations especially 2 years after the end of the recession? Accepting such low economic numbers ought to concern everyone especially with 24 million unemployed and underemployed Americans. I would have expected a lot better numbers from someone that the liberal media claims is the smartest person ever to hold the office.
 
Oh, really? Rather than spending all this money on foreign aid, maybe we should just send Tony Robbins out to Ethiopia or Zimbabwe and really get things pumping.

:roll:

I'll make this incredibly simple for you.

The banks are not lending money.
The consumers are not spending their money.

For the economy to grow banks need to lend money and consumers need to spend money.

Why are they not doing so?

Banks lack the confidence to lend money because of the current uncertainty.
Consumers lack the confidence to spend money because of the current uncertainty.

And as for your dumbass statement. Ethopia's GDP grew 10.9% between 2010 and 2011. Zimbabwe's GDP grew 9.3%. A large part of that was due to microlending.

Why do I have to constantly pwn you conservatives? It gets boring after awhile because you never seem to learn. You seem to like to comment on economic issues with absolutely no knowledge and no research.
 
Last edited:
donsutherland1 and CriticalThought are the only posters to this thread who make sense. If you pay attention to the economic indicators, you're really not throwing yourself into a panic over what's happened with the economic growth numbers. They are relatively close to what most economist expected. A -0.5% difference (1.8 - 1.3) isn't much to panic about. The economy's in the ballpark of analysist estimates.
Not on this planet.

TIM GHRISKEY, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF SOLARIS ASSET MANAGEMENT IN BEDFORD HILLS, NEW YORK:
“Everybody expected GDP to be weak for the second quarter, estimates had steadily come down, but this is a pretty shockingly low number. The revision to the first quarter is even more shocking.”

SCOTT BROWN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RAYMOND JAMES, ST. PETERSBURG, FL
“The face value is certainly not great. The second quarter disappointed, but the first-quarter downward revision is more disturbing. It advances the pangs of concern.

OMER ESINER, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, COMMONWEALTH FOREIGN EXCHANGE, WASHINGTON
“Very weak number in GDP. The headline was well below forecast and surprisingly we saw very large downward revision to Q1’s data.

STEVE BLITZ, DIRECTOR AND SENIOR ECONOMIST, ITG NEW YORK
The economy is weak, and it’s going to stay weak, and it’s going to stay weak for a while because we are in the process of deleveraging and this is what deleveraging looks like. To get the economy moving forward the way it should requires a reform of the tax code that will lower rates and broaden the base and favor investment over consumption. Efforts to try and put Humpty Dumpty back together again to have the economy we had before is not going to work.


Here's one that kind of agrees with you! Of course, he ignores the Q1 revision altogether:

MATTHEW KEATOR, PARTNER IN THE KEATOR GROUP, A WEALTH MANAGEMENT FIRM IN LENOX, MASSACHUSETTS
Disappointing number, but I’m not surprised considering the uncertainty in the market over the debt ceiling, regulations and so forth. Structurally, corporations are doing a good job, but on the macro side, with all the uncertainty, it isn’t surprising that we’re seeing this type of headwind. This is the straw with all the other uncertainty out there.”
 
It is more conservative silliness. ALL foreign aid together accounts for about 1% of our budget. The majority of that 1% goes to Israel, Egypt, and Pakistan for reasons of national defense -- not because we're just really nice guys.
 
Not on this planet.

TIM GHRISKEY, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF SOLARIS ASSET MANAGEMENT IN BEDFORD HILLS, NEW YORK:
“Everybody expected GDP to be weak for the second quarter, estimates had steadily come down, but this is a pretty shockingly low number. The revision to the first quarter is even more shocking.”

SCOTT BROWN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, RAYMOND JAMES, ST. PETERSBURG, FL
“The face value is certainly not great. The second quarter disappointed, but the first-quarter downward revision is more disturbing. It advances the pangs of concern.

OMER ESINER, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, COMMONWEALTH FOREIGN EXCHANGE, WASHINGTON
“Very weak number in GDP. The headline was well below forecast and surprisingly we saw very large downward revision to Q1’s data.

STEVE BLITZ, DIRECTOR AND SENIOR ECONOMIST, ITG NEW YORK
The economy is weak, and it’s going to stay weak, and it’s going to stay weak for a while because we are in the process of deleveraging and this is what deleveraging looks like. To get the economy moving forward the way it should requires a reform of the tax code that will lower rates and broaden the base and favor investment over consumption. Efforts to try and put Humpty Dumpty back together again to have the economy we had before is not going to work.


Here's one that kind of agrees with you! Of course, he ignores the Q1 revision altogether:

MATTHEW KEATOR, PARTNER IN THE KEATOR GROUP, A WEALTH MANAGEMENT FIRM IN LENOX, MASSACHUSETTS
Disappointing number, but I’m not surprised considering the uncertainty in the market over the debt ceiling, regulations and so forth. Structurally, corporations are doing a good job, but on the macro side, with all the uncertainty, it isn’t surprising that we’re seeing this type of headwind. This is the straw with all the other uncertainty out there.”

Yes, it is bad. So what's your point? What would conservatives have done that wouldn't have actually made things much worse -- let alone better?
 
It is more conservative silliness. ALL foreign aid together accounts for about 1% of our budget. The majority of that 1% goes to Israel, Egypt, and Pakistan for reasons of national defense -- not because we're just really nice guys.

Don't bother. It goes in one ear and out the other. People who comment on issues which they never even bother to research for themselves and rely on being told what to think by partisan bloggers and journalists are not worth trying to educate.
 
Don't bother. It goes in one ear and out the other. People who comment on issues which they never even bother to research for themselves and rely on being told what to think by partisan bloggers and journalists are not worth trying to educate.

You are preaching to the choir. ;)
 
Don't bother. It goes in one ear and out the other. People who comment on issues which they never even bother to research for themselves and rely on being told what to think by partisan bloggers and journalists are not worth trying to educate.

Before you start discussing an issue you need to research it and get the actual facts especially when it comes to spending and income. We have a consumer generated economy that is being hurt by 24 million unemployed or under employed Americans and that fact is ignored. The lower GDP has very little to do with Foreign Aid but everything to do with poor consumer spending. Learn the four components of GDP then pay attention to the actual line item expenses of the Federal Govt. You could learn a lot doing just doing this.

2010 Federal Budget line item expenses in billions.

Expenses

Defense 696.1
International Affairs 45.2
Gen. Science, Space 30.9
Energy 11.5
Natural resources/env 41.6
Agriculture 23.2
Commerce 30.1
Transportation 92.5
Community Dev 24.5
Education/Train/Social 125.1
Health 369.0
Medicare 451.6
Income Security 624.0
Social Security 706.7
Veterans Benefits 108.4
Justice 55.2
General Govt. 18.1
Net Interest 196.9


BEA.gov will give you the GDP growth by component, suggest you learn what drives our GDP and stop buying media reports and misinformation
 
Before you start discussing an issue you need to research it and get the actual facts especially when it comes to spending and income. We have a consumer generated economy that is being hurt by 24 million unemployed or under employed Americans and that fact is ignored. The lower GDP has very little to do with Foreign Aid but everything to do with poor consumer spending. Learn the four components of GDP then pay attention to the actual line item expenses of the Federal Govt. You could learn a lot doing just doing this.

2010 Federal Budget line item expenses in billions.

Expenses

Defense 696.1
International Affairs 45.2
Gen. Science, Space 30.9
Energy 11.5
Natural resources/env 41.6
Agriculture 23.2
Commerce 30.1
Transportation 92.5
Community Dev 24.5
Education/Train/Social 125.1
Health 369.0
Medicare 451.6
Income Security 624.0
Social Security 706.7
Veterans Benefits 108.4
Justice 55.2
General Govt. 18.1
Net Interest 196.9


BEA.gov will give you the GDP growth by component, suggest you learn what drives our GDP and stop buying media reports and misinformation

You are playing chicken and the egg.

Nobody is going to get hired until consumers start to spend and banks start to lend. You can't create jobs without consumer confidence and lender confidence. It will not happen.

Nothing you posted challenges that simple fact.
 
You are playing chicken and the egg.

Nobody is going to get hired until consumers start to spend and banks start to lend. You can't create jobs without consumer confidence and lender confidence. It will not happen.

Nothing you posted challenges that simple fact.

What is Obama doing to promote consumer confidence and bank lending, more regulations on business, potential for higher taxes, Obamacare, demonizing individual wealth creation, promoting wealth redistribution? Why would any consumer spend with this Administrtion in charge?
 
What is Obama doing to promote consumer confidence and bank lending, more regulations on business, potential for higher taxes, Obamacare, demonizing individual wealth creation, promoting wealth redistribution? Why would any consumer spend with this Administrtion in charge?

Obama is a poor ass president. Your point? I didn't vote for him. I'm a registered Independent, not a Democrat.

However, the Tea Party has done far more damage in the last few months to consumer and lender confidence than Obama has probably done over his entire presidency, and if we default, the resulting recession will be entirely the fault of the GOP.
 
Obama is a poor ass president. Your point? I didn't vote for him. I'm a registered Independent, not a Democrat.

However, the Tea Party has done far more damage in the last few months to consumer and lender confidence than Obama has probably done over his entire presidency, and if we default, the resulting recession will be entirely the fault of the GOP.

The Tea Party has done NO damage to consumer and lender confidence as they are trying to put some fiscal responsibility back into our govt. Instead of kicking the can down the road they are actually addressing the issue and are being demonized for it. I watched a lot of tea party rallies around the country and that is America, not the clueless liberal talking heads that demonize average Americans. If we default it will be all Obama because he had total control of the Govt. for two years and could have increased the debt ceiling any time but no, he passed record spending. Stop buying what you are told and think. Obama wants a default as he believes that is his path to re-election, blame someone else so he can ignore his record.
 
donsutherland1 and CriticalThought are the only posters to this thread who make sense. If you pay attention to the economic indicators, you're really not throwing yourself into a panic over what's happened with the economic growth numbers. They are relatively close to what most economist expected. A -0.5% difference (1.8 - 1.3) isn't much to panic about. The economy's in the ballpark of analysist estimates.

at the beginning of the year "most economists" were predicting around 3.5% growth. not 0.4%.





so anyway, how's that Recovery Summer working out? any minute now the Stimulus is going to save us all, right? yup, aaaaany minute now.....
 
The Tea Party has done NO damage to consumer and lender confidence as they are trying to put some fiscal responsibility back into our govt. Instead of kicking the can down the road they are actually addressing the issue and are being demonized for it. I watched a lot of tea party rallies around the country and that is America, not the clueless liberal talking heads that demonize average Americans. If we default it will be all Obama because he had total control of the Govt. for two years and could have increased the debt ceiling any time but no, he passed record spending. Stop buying what you are told and think. Obama wants a default as he believes that is his path to re-election, blame someone else so he can ignore his record.

The have taken the US economy hostage by using threat of default in an attempt to instill fiscally irresponsible measures that have no hope of passing the Senate or White House. The uncertainty they have created by doing so has been devastating to consumer and lender confidence. If interests rates go up even if we don't default the repercussions of their actions will be felt for years to come.
 
You are playing chicken and the egg.

Nobody is going to get hired until consumers start to spend and banks start to lend. You can't create jobs without consumer confidence and lender confidence. It will not happen.

Nothing you posted challenges that simple fact.

hey! that's what we should have done! a giant demand-side stimulus package! gosh, why didn't we think of that in 2008 and then again even bigger in 2009?
 
The have taken the US economy hostage by using threat of default in an attempt to instill fiscally irresponsible measures that have no hope of passing the Senate or White House. The uncertainty they have created by doing so has been devastating to consumer and lender confidence. If interests rates go up even if we don't default the repercussions of their actions will be felt for years to come.

Looks to me like someone else buying the media rhetoric, that is bull****. This is all about spending too much and increasing the credit card limit so they can borrow more money to pay for that overspending. Our Credit rating is going to be downgraded because of spending too much, not because of increasing the credit limit.
 
Back
Top Bottom