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Thread: U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

  1. #251
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    Re: U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post

    So then two years after the end of a recession we have 3 million more unemployed or under employed (154 million X 16.2%) and you think that is worthy of re-election? When does this become the Obama economy?
    First of all, and I've said this before, I have not yet decided on who I am voting for. I will likely not decide until close to election time.

    But seriously, Con, where do you get off even asking?

    Here you are insinuating that Obama is not "worthy" of four more year because there's an additional 3 million underemployed after 29 months on the job.

    But now let's compare that to other presidents you voted to give four more years to, shall we?

    Ronald Reagan: 3,197,829 unemployed in a workforce 1/3rd smaller than today
    1/1981: UR: 7.5%; WF: 108M = 8,101,950 unemployed
    6/1983: UR: 10.1%; WF: 112M = 11,299,779 unemployed
    Bush: 4,649,368 underemployed in a workforce 4% smaller than today
    1/2001: UR: 7.3%; WF: 144M = 10,497,400 underunemployed
    6/2003: UR: 10.3%; WF: 147M = 15,146,768 underunemployed
    Bush loses 5 million jobs in 29 months to underemployment. Conservative: "4 more years!"

    Obama loses 3 million jobs in 29 months to underemployment. Conservative: "Impeach! Impeach!"

    Hypocrite, thy name be Conservative
    Last edited by Sheik Yerbuti; 07-29-11 at 06:09 PM.

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    Re: U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post

    Bye, Sheik, Friday night and I am out of patience with you. Have a good one
    Does this mean I can expect divorce papers from you again?




  3. #253
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    Re: U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post

    Bye, Sheik, Friday night and I am out of patience with you. Have a good one
    Run, Conservative, Run!



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    Re: U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

    Yes, in your link she does say she regrets making that FORECAST. It was never a promise, as she made abundantly clear in the disclaimer that appeared along with the forecast.

    Here's a bonus tip: if the weather man says it's going to be 90 degrees and sunny tomorrow, that's not a promise. It's a forecast. If it turns out to be 89 and partly cloudy, that doesn't make the weather man a liar.

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    Re: U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    What lies?
    Obama pledges to halve budget deficit by 2013 | Reuters

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    Re: U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by CriticalThought View Post
    You could say the same thing about butterfly wings flapping in Australia, but that is the point. You can't predict what would have happened without it
    precisely? no. roughly? yes. how? look at history. for example, had we not decided to engage in massive stimulus spending, but rather respond about along the lines to which we responded to the last 10 post-war recessions our per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) would be $3,553 higher than it is today, and 11.9 million more Americans would be employed, a number that climbs even higher if we compare our 1982 response, in which case annual per-capita income would be $4,154 higher than before the recession—that's an extra $16,600 for a family of four—and some 15.7 million more Americans would have jobs. That's enough jobs to employ 100% of the 13.5 million Americans currently classified as unemployed. In addition, we would have provided jobs for 30% of both the 2.4 million discouraged or marginally attached workers and the 4.8 million who have totally dropped out of the work force since January 2008.

    Nor is the US experience unique. If you were to compare every major attempt to stimulate an economy in an OECD country since 1970, you would find that those that succeed are the ones that cut taxes, whereas those that fail are the ones that increase transfer payments.

    but how can this be? isn't spending supposed to snowball, creating more and more wealth as it flows through the economy? well, no. it turns out that economies with high levels of debt have a multiplier effect of zero, and in open economies (such as ours) it is actually NEGATIVE.

    We borrowed money for the stimulus, we didn't take it from tax revenues.
    yes. that was my point. people who were looking to invest had their money sucked into Treasuries rather than something else. recoveries occur when the private economy begins to expand again; and instead we took the capital that was going to that expansion, sucked it up, and spent it on things like propping up state budgets for a year, buffalo museums and studying robot bees.

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    Re: U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    Yes, in your link she does say she regrets making that FORECAST. It was never a promise, as she made abundantly clear in the disclaimer that appeared along with the forecast.

    Here's a bonus tip: if the weather man says it's going to be 90 degrees and sunny tomorrow, that's not a promise. It's a forecast. If it turns out to be 89 and partly cloudy, that doesn't make the weather man a liar.
    except it's not 89. it's 130. not only was Romer wrong in scale, she was wrong in direction. we lost more jobs with the stimulus than we were warned we risked potentially losing without it.

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    Re: U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

    Is that a lie? Is it 2013? Did he not just offer to cut the deficit by $4 trillion over 10 years? Did he not try to prevent the top Bush tax cuts from being renewed?

    Obviously these sorts of pledges are only promises to try, as we all know that President cannot cut spending or raise taxes without Congress' cooperation.

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    Re: U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    except it's not 89. it's 130. not only was Romer wrong in scale, she was wrong in direction. we lost more jobs with the stimulus than we were warned we risked potentially losing without it.
    Well, she was off by about two percentage points, and the error was not in calculating how many jobs would be saved or created, but rather, in underestimating the depth of the recession. In other words, they figured that unemployment would probably hit 10 or 11% without the stimulus. As it turns out, it would have hit 12 - 14% without the stimulus.

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    Re: U.S. GDP Grows Just 1.3%

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    The economy would probably be better if he had done a significantly larger stimulus, but realistically he probably couldn't have gotten more than he did ... since he needed at least token republican support.
    he had 60 senators and a plurality of 78 downstairs

    The debt situation would not be quite so bad if he had been able to roll back some of the Bush tax cuts, but the republicans would not allow that.
    44 senate democrats voted FOR extending the bush/obama/clinton/boehner/mcconnell tax cuts for the rich, only 14 in dissent

    in pelosi's place it was 143 to 112

    Senate passes package extending Bush tax cuts - politics - Capitol Hill - msnbc.com

    The health care reform law would have been better, and would have saved more, if it had a public option, but the republicans would not have that.
    Update: List of Dem Senators Who Don't Support the Public Option | CarlBentham's Blog

    in general, it appears you don't know what you're talking about

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