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Thread: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    No. Cutting spending during this stage of the recovery is some kind of sick joke. You see, once the labor market slack begins to tighten up, the deficit will naturally contract without any new legislation. But as the labor market currently stands, fiscal consolidation will go dollar for dollar in terms of output (GDP) reductions i.e. you cut spending by $500 billion, and GDP falls by that same amount. Therefore, it is critical that the debt ceiling be raised ASAP. Otherwise the bond market will begin to play a different tune.

    So we should choke hold folks, and small businesses with spending and tax increases with non producing government jobs to get us out of a recession? I may not have the financial background you do, but this doesn't make much sense to me.






    Just because the trust fund will receive the interest payments/repayments for the scheduled debt that is owed, there is no guarantee that S.S. recipients will receive 100% of their scheduled payments. If it goes this way, something like 70% of the nominal payments would most likely be the result.

    So on august 2nd, folks will get about 70% if no deal is passed?
    Let evil swiftly befall those who have wrongly condemned us

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    If you government is responsible for unemployment, you must want them to hire people. Just saying . . . .

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    governor's cuomo's approach:

    "we have the worst business tax climate in the nation, period, our taxes are 66% higher than the national average"

    "the costs of pensions are exploding... a 476% increase and its only getting worse"

    "the state of new york spends too much money, it is that blunt and it is that simple"

    "an unsustainable rate of growth and it has been for a long time"

    "not only do we spend too much, but we get too little in return"

    "the large government we have is all too often responsive to the special interests over the people"

    "new yorkers are voting with their feet, two million new yorkers have left the state over the past decade"

    "what does this say, it says we need radical reform, it says we need a new approach, we need a new perspective and we need it now"

    "this is a fundamental realignment for the state"

    "the old way wasn't working anyway, let's be honest"

    "we want a government that puts the people first and not the special interests first"

    "what made new york the empire state was a not a large government complex, it was a vibrant private sector that was creating great jobs"

    "and that's what's going to make us the empire state again"

    "at the heart of this state is business"

    "we have to relearn the lesson our founders knew and we have to put up a sign that says new york is open for business, we get it, and this is going to be a business friendly state"

    "we are going to have to confront the tax situation in our state, property taxes in this state are killing new yorkers, thirteen of the sixteen highest tax counties are in new york when assessed by home value"

    "westchester county has the highest property taxes in the united states, nassau county has the second highest"

    "it has to end, it has to end this year"

    "we have to hold the line on taxes for now and reduce taxes in the future, new york has no future as the tax capital of the nation, our young people will not stay, our business will not come"

    "put it simply, the people of this state simply cannot afford to pay any more taxes, period"

    "we have to start with an emergency financial plan to stabilize our finances, we need to hold the line and we need to institute a wage freeze in the state of new york, we need to hold the line on taxes, we need a state spending cap and we need to close this $10 billion gap without any borrowing"

    GOVERNOR ANDREW M. CUOMO STATE OF THE STATE ADDRESS | Governor Andrew M. Cuomo

    the gub aint just talkin, either

    Cuomo budget: $10 billion deficit cut, no new taxes, layoffs likely

    and that sophisticated new york audience is going wild

    Andrew Cuomo approval sky-high, new poll suggests - Jennifer Epstein - POLITICO.com

    say what you will, the democrat governor of new york has demonstrated more leadership than any american politician i can recall in quite awhile

    there are a lot of others, many democratic---rahm in chicago, quinn in springfield, moonbeam in sacto, malloy in dark blue connecticut, the state legislatures of MA and IL and NJ...

    we'll see what results cuomo's cruel austerities bring

    we're already seeing school districts in wisconsin, freed from collective bargaining constraints, suddenly shopping around for health care coverage, saving millions and turning district deficits into surpluses overnite

    Union curbs rescue a Wisconsin school district | Byron York | Politics | Washington Examiner

    Appleton Area School District retains WEA Trust for insurance | Appleton Post Crescent | postcrescent.com

    we're seeing states and municipalities across the country trying a broad array of reforms and solutions, many creative and hopeful

    we will judge in time by the results they deliver

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    That's the Keynsian theory... actual research has shown the opposite.
    You mean that study cpwill has been trying to pass off? It in no way reflects our current situation. Keynesian theory is what has been used by every administration since 1945. Even the Volker move in the early 1980's is textbook Keynesian prescription to inflation!

    That meaningful and permanent cuts can have a stimulative effect on the economy. If deficit reduction is to occur in a down economy, spending cuts are the single best approach.
    Maybe in 10-15 years. But in the short term, real output will decrease, dollar for dollar, in terms of budget cuts. You would have to understand the mechanism for which the federal government occurs deficits and how a persistent negative current account balance will necessarily cause the demand for (essentially!) risk free assets to increase.

    But hey, you have already considered such aspects of the macro-economy prior to engaging in the discussion... right? The data is here; without a valid understanding of macro-theory, it will be meaningless.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    If you government is responsible for unemployment, you must want them to hire people. Just saying . . . .


    Actually no, no I don't Government employees produce nothing. I'd rather the government lower taxes on my business so I can hire more folks to continue to improve and sell my product.


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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    So we should choke hold folks, and small businesses with spending and tax increases with non producing government jobs to get us out of a recession? I may not have the financial background you do, but this doesn't make much sense to me.
    It's very easy to understand. In the absence of real growth and normalized lending, government spending is buoying the market. Cut it by 44%, and out comes the rug from under the market's feet. What Goldenboy is saying, in simple terms, is that once people are actually all working again, the deficit will recede naturally, as GSEs and such will slowly become redundant.

    ...of course, I'd still rather the debt ceiling not be raised and pay the penalty. But only because I have far less faith in the federal government's ability to meaningfully reduce deficits in the long term.


    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    You mean that study cpwill has been trying to pass off? It in no way reflects our current situation. Keynesian theory is what has been used by every administration since 1945. Even the Volker move in the early 1980's is textbook Keynesian prescription to inflation!
    ...eh. It's also textbook monetarist.

    Sorta depends on "which" Keynesianism you mean.
    Last edited by Jeezy; 07-15-11 at 02:49 PM.
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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    usa today, june 13:

    The federal government's financial condition deteriorated rapidly last year, far beyond the $1.5 trillion in new debt taken on to finance the budget deficit, a USA TODAY analysis shows.

    The government added $5.3 trillion in new financial obligations in 2010, largely for retirement programs such as Medicare and Social Security. That brings to a record $61.6 trillion the total of financial promises not paid for.

    Medicare alone took on $1.8 trillion in new liabilities, more than the record deficit prompting heated debate between Congress and the White House over lifting the debt ceiling.

    Social Security added $1.4 trillion in obligations, partly reflecting longer life expectancies. Federal and military retirement programs added more to the financial hole, too.
    U.S. funding for future promises lags by trillions - USATODAY.com

    61.6 trillion dollars and growing by 5.3 per year

    if something isn't done imminently to fundamentally reform our budgets (like cuomo, like the wisconsin school districts), then our big 3 federal programs (and state pensions too) will simply cease to exist as we know them for our next generation

    ie, there's not enough revenue in the milky way to make em right

    spin, anyone?

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by sookster View Post
    It is with this evidence, that I think it is apparent that Obama believes in Keynsian Theory. He wants to raise the debt ceiling so he can spend more, starting the cycle of the dollar through the economy, and his mind, will strengthen the cur
    To a keynsian, deficit reduction is an economy killer. Perhaps that's what explains Obama's unwillingness to strike a deal (despite the rhetoric) or why some of his spending cuts go into effect in 2035.

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    Actually no, no I don't Government employees produce nothing. I'd rather the government lower taxes on my business so I can hire more folks to continue to improve and sell my product.


    \
    There's no evidence this would have business hire more. As we can see presently, business is generally making good profits, but not hiring at the moment. Evidence has been produced previously to show that tax cuts and tax increases really have little to no effect on the hiring.

    There is much written on this, so you can do your own search if you like, but I will post this for you so you know I have looked as well:

    Prevailing conservative wisdom dictates that businesses need tax cuts—and investors need capital gains tax cuts—to get the economy moving. But two very well-executed articles on wages and taxes published recently suggest that targeting tax cuts at business executives may do little to improve the dismal unemployment picture.

    [Check out a roundup of political cartoons on the economy.]

    The Washington Post offers a startling analysis of income disparity, noting that the gap between the very rich and the rest of us has grown dramatically in the past few decades, reaching current levels that have not been seen since the Great Depression. In 2008, the Post reports, the top one-tenth of one percent of earners took in more than a tenth of the personal income in the United States. But the moneyed class is not dominated by professional athletes or big-name artistic performers or even hedge fund managers, the Post found. Instead, it is due to a big increase in executive compensation, even as real wages for some of their workers have dropped:

    Corporate Tax Cuts Don't Stimulate Job Growth - Susan Milligan (usnews.com)

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeezy View Post
    It's very easy to understand. In the absence of real growth and normalized lending, government spending is buoying the market. Cut it by 44%, and out comes the rug from under the market's feet. What Goldenboy is saying, in simple terms, is that once people are actually all working again, the deficit will recede naturally, as GSEs and such will slowly become redundant.
    But we have the examples of TARP, the Stimulus, QE1 and 2 which are all examples of this thinking and unemployment has went up.

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