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Thread: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

  1. #411
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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    aug 2: united states defaults on its debt

    aug 3: the world comes to an end

    aug 4: obama turns FIFTY, the big five-oh!

    and YOU can celebrate the president's birthday with him, enjoy the glitz and the gala, for 35000 dollars cash

    Obama hits Chicago for 50th birthday fund-raisers at the Aragon - Lynn Sweet

    party on, mr prez!
    .... wow ...
    ..... it really is true. this administration really has no idea what things look like from outside the bubble.

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Whether we "default" is not so much the issue, as is the effects that can, and in some cases will, happen when we reach a certain point.
    That is an entirely different position. If I misread your postion I'll state up front that I'm sorry but we seem to be beyond the idea that others do not care about the ramifications of the country defaulting.

    probably won't melt down, but this is not to say that there will not be consequences. What and how severe those might be, I freely admit to not knowing, but I also know based on the fact that experts all disagree, that no one really knows for sure. You can claim all you want to claim, but it is still just a guess based on your willingness to believe what supports your pre-assumed guess.
    I do not know anyone that argues that not raising the debt limit won't create ramifications.

    One of the most dangerous things we can do is assume that because something is what we want to hear, it must be true.
    But you assume that everyone else makes their decision based only upon "what they want to hear". The facts are, we take in enough to not default.

    Every one does it to an extent, including myself. I do try and question all assumptions however, and you will notice in reading my post history that I use a lot of caveats, alot of disclaimers, and fairly frequently admit that things I would rather not be true, are true.
    So, what about the idea that we take in enough to not default?

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3



    That was then.

    This is now

    Silent sobs
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    in unspoken fears.

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    there is no way we default if we go past Aug 2. we have literally more than ten times the revenue necessary to avoid such an event. we would have a partial government shut down. not a default.
    It would be more than a partial government shut down. What typically happens under the partial shutdowns that have occurred in the past is that entitlements continue to be funded, the debt continues to be paid, the military continues to operate, and any other discretionary programs deemed essential (e.g. food inspection, health care workers, law enforcement) continue to operate.

    There is simply not enough money for this solution to work if we must suddenly cut the budget by 43%. A partial shutdown of the kind I described above would get you maybe halfway there.
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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    that is true - whether the bond markets go nuts or not (i think there are several powerful reasons they won't and only one weak reason that they might) is anyones' guess. "bad things happening" is not "default".
    Depends how bad those bad things are. Even if we continue to pay our bondholders, failing to reach an agreement will undoubtedly cause an immediate credit downgrade and at the very least have a negative effect on the bond market. The immediate danger isn't the rise in our interest rates (although that would certainly undo a lot of those spending cuts that have been negotiated in the long-term). The more pressing concern is the $500 billion debt that is coming due in August, which would normally be rolled over. Who knows if that will be the case if the government is in default or quasi-default? If some substantial fraction of that (maybe 10%) is not rolled over by spooked investors who demand their money immediately, that would mean even deeper cuts into services typically deemed essential. And the fact that we have no way of KNOWING in advance how deep these cuts will need to be, could be truly devastating.
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    Educator snilloctjc's Avatar
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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    There is simply not enough money for this solution to work if we must suddenly cut the budget by 43%. A partial shutdown of the kind I described above would get you maybe halfway there.
    Unless you object, please save me from going through this entire thread to discover where the idea that we must suddenly cut 43% of the budget came from?

    Thanks
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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Sgt Meowenstein View Post
    He had to spend in order to stabilize the crap economy that Bush left him. You think Republicans don't spend? Are you forgetting the 2 wars, the Medicare drug plan, and the Bush tax cuts for the rich, none of which were paid for? ANd who passed TARP? Here's a hint, it wasn't Obama. Maybe you should just quit at this point. You lose.
    For some reason, graphs always seem to help. Either that or a bunny with a pancake on its head.

    Scribd

    President Bush has presided over the largest overall increase in inflation-adjusted federal spending since Lyndon B. Johnson. Even after excluding spending on defense and homeland security, Bush is still the biggest-spending president in 30 years. His 2006 budget doesn’t cut enough spending to change his place in history, either.

    Total government spending grew by 33% during Bush’s first term. The federal budget as a share of the economy grew from 18.5% of GDP on Clinton’s last day in office to 20.3 per- cent by the end of Bush’s first term.

    The Republican Congress has enthusiastically assisted the budget bloat. Inflation-adjusted spending on the combined budgets of the 101 largest programs they vowed to eliminate in 1995 has grown by 27%.
    Last edited by BDBoop; 07-15-11 at 12:12 PM.

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by snilloctjc View Post
    Unless you object, please save me from going through this entire thread to discover where the idea that we must suddenly cut 43% of the budget came from?
    Thanks
    That's roughly how much spending exceeds current revenues, once you deduct the funds necessary to cover the debt service.

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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by snilloctjc View Post
    Unless you object, please save me from going through this entire thread to discover where the idea that we must suddenly cut 43% of the budget came from?
    That's the amount of our current spending that is not covered by tax revenue, and would therefore need to be suddenly eliminated if the government is not allowed to borrow money.
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    Re: Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    I knew it would come down to a statement about two parties. Maybe if I was a purist libertarian, I might see it different. But the problem is, you folks are not getting many elected. You can't stay on the sidelines pointing one finger at the D and the other at the R, just bitch. You have to get involved one side or the other, or just be quiet. Playing the middle or just standing on the outskirts accomplishes nothing. We all know about partisanship and what's going on, you (as a group) are not telling us anything we don't know.
    So I have to support the Republocrats in some manner or shut up? Mmmmm, tyranny.

    How about this instead. It's America, it's still a free country for now. So long as it remains that way I will run my mouth the way I want to when I want to against who I want to. If you don't like it, don't read my posts. Sorry to point out that decades of Republocrat rule has driven us to this current state, or the fact that while Obama has made concessions and tried to compromise, the Republicans have been obstructionists in this entire thing. Even when given back their call for spending cuts, they refused because they want to keep things like the Capital Gains tax where it is to give big breaks to the super rich instead of doing what is right by the Republic. And they continue to do so. Obama has them in a corner, they had their chance to claim victory; but due to party politics, engaging in the partisan crapfest which has become standard Republocrat rule, they missed it. They ****ed up. Now they're just continuing this little farce for as long as they can but they know they're boned.

    You may claim you all "know about the partisanship", I'm not so sure that's a statement of fact. As it seems that many even here are still falling to the partisan rhetoric, attacks, and defenses.

    So no, I will not "just be quiet". I have a right to speak, and I will damned well do just that. And if you don't like it, well it's freedom baby. Deal with it.
    You know the time is right to take control, we gotta take offense against the status quo

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    "I should have loved freedom, I believe, at all times, but in the time in which we live I am ready to worship it."

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