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Thread: South Sudan becomes world's newest nation.

  1. #31
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    Re: South Sudan becomes world's newest nation.

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    Btw, Kandahar, does Southern Sudan have exports that can survive Dutch Disease?
    No, it does not. If they're able to smartly plan for the long-term, they'll follow the Norway Model for dealing with their oil wealth, and put most of the revenue in an investment fund or a stabilization fund outside of the country, and slowly release it into their economy at a predictable rate. Unfortunately I think they're much more likely to adopt the Angola Model, where the oil money is spent immediately and there is a free-for-all among corrupt bureaucrats and military leaders to get their hands on as much of that money as they can.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 07-10-11 at 01:58 AM.
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  2. #32
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    Re: South Sudan becomes world's newest nation.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    Another failed state for terrorists to set up camp.

    And yes it is already a failed state. It cant support it self, it is in defacto war with the North plus has at least 12 different "rebel" groups around the country that does not recognize the new government.. oh and did I mention it cant support it self? It has plenty of oil, but no way to export it... well there is exporting it through North Sudan, but since they are at war pretty much then that wont happen.

    While it might be on paper a good thing that the "Christian south" has broken away from the "Muslim north", in reality it does not change much. The South has been ruled for a long time by themselves. I do hope they make it, but I aint optimistic one bit.
    They are already working with the Kenyan government to build pipelines through that country to get oil out in that direction.
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  3. #33
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    Re: South Sudan becomes world's newest nation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    No, it does not. If they're able to smartly plan for the long-term, they'll follow the Norway Model for dealing with their oil wealth, and put most of the revenue in an investment fund or a stabilization fund outside of the country, and slowly release it into their economy at a predictable rate. Unfortunately I think they're much more likely to adopt the Angola Model, where the oil money is spent immediately and there is a free-for-all among corrupt bureaucrats and military leaders to get their hands on as much of that money as they can.
    It could be argued that S. Sudan needs the money now for infrastructure and thus the Norway Model isn't really applicable. I don't recall Angola being that underdeveloped at independence. When their capital has barely any paved roads, they need some serious spending on basic infrastructure. I do agree though, that it is likely that it will devolve into a debacle of corruption. Let's see if the expat Sudanese can prevent this?
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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