I think Obama really isn't all that intelligent. His advisers and appointees run the show and he is the charismatic face for their ideals. My personal opinion is that Obama is similar to Bachman. Nothing but talking points and largely devoid of individual intelligent thoughts or ideas.
IMO, he is very intelligent. I believe his biggest weakness is that he may lack the ability to align support behind his vision (or at least parts of it where common ground is possible). He is a charismatic speaker. However, when it comes to translating vision into policy, he has not been able to transcend partisan rivalries to focus on identifying and leveraging common ground. In contrast, President Clinton through triangulation was able to do that and criticism of that approach notwithstanding, it was a brilliant strategy for dealing with a divided Washington. Hence, after a rocky start, he could point to various policy successes. That credit was shared with the Republican congress is less important than the fact that concrete policy outcomes were achieved.
Another issue that confronts President Obama is that perhaps he is overanalytical. That comes across as hesitation. During crises, that can be a liability. Then, a leader needs to be decisive. He/she needs to be able to try to impose a sense of order on the turmoil when information is incomplete.
When one steps back to look at the big picture, one sees an economic recovery that has been relatively jobless to date (meaning the unemployment rate has remained persistently high). That President Obama undertook two rounds of stimulus (2009 and late 2010) is largely lost in what seems to be a decided lack of ongoing action and sluggish economic growth. A similar dynamic is at play in the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations. I agree with President Obama's delegating leadership for the talks to Vice President Biden. I don't believe it is helpful if the President is involved in day-to-day negotiations, as it risks squandering his political capital and diverting attention from other matters. Where I think President Obama has erred is in not making a regular and forceful case for his vision of fiscal consolidation. As a result, Republicans have been arguing that he is detached from the issue and has no ideas of his own. That the U.S. lacked a coherent framework for dealing with possible political change in the Middle East and took an overly idealistic approach that the Israeli-Palestinian dispute could rapidly be resolved (despite vast differences between the parties and the historic pace of progress) and has responded in a largely reactive fashion to events has also created perceptual problems. Barring appreciable progress on the economic, fiscal, and foreign policy fronts, there is a risk that the perception that President Obama has lost control of events could take hold.
IMO, President Carter truly lost control of events and was properly viewed as ineffective. President Obama is not in such a position at this time. However, should his Administration continue to display little decisiveness and a continuing inability to reach necessary policy agreements, most important of which would provide realistic opportunity for a more vigorous economic rebound, President Obama will risk being defined as a 21st century version of President Carter. The public elects leaders to address problems. By the 2012 election, the public will be less interested in the narrative of the 2007-09 financial crisis/severe recession and much more interested in ongoing job creation and prospects for a more robust and sustained recovery going forward. The public won't be interested in stories about the past. It will be focused on a path to a better future.
Of course, if the Republicans nominate a candidate with below average communications ability, a perspective that is beyond what the public would tolerate, and/or an inability to rally the public behind his/her vision, then President Obama could still be re-elected. Then, barring a return to recession or some other crisis, the public could find political risk avoidance preferable to an unsatisfactory economic status quo. If the Republicans engineer what would be a self-inflicted debt crisis or recession related to a breakdown in the debt ceiling talks (something I don't believe is likely), then prospects for a Republican victory in 2012 would be significantly dimmer.