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Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

danarhea said:
Ain't that the truth. And while Republicans and Democrats continue to point the finger at each other, our nation continues to burn. So, to Democrats and Republicans both, I am going to be very blunt.

1) Bush policies began the Great Recession.

2) Obama policies have continued the Great Recession.

There is no other way to look at it, except that ALL of our leaders have been selling us out.

Look, folks here is the deal. I get madder every day I see Bush people pointing the finger at Obama, and Obama people pointing the finger at Bush, while ignoring their own guy. Where the hell is the sense of patriotism and sacrifice that existed in the 1930's, when our leaders put America before politics? If America goes to hell in a handbasket, I will blame them all, Republicans and Democrats alike. In case anybody forgot, today's politicians, no matter which party, are all scum bags.

Article is here.
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The Republocrats have been working the partisan angle well for some time now. Fact of the matter is, unemployment is still currently above 9%. We're putting off funding for necessary infrastructure work while continuing introventionist wars in foreign countries. Nothing the government has done, Bush or Obama, is to benefit the majority of America. It has all been bailouts to the super rich and huge corporations and banks. They took our money and gave it to them. Then when they're clear of the fire, it's over....problem solved. At least so much as government is concerned.

In the end, it was never supposed to be Republican vs. Democrat. It was meant to be The People vs. The Government. We need to keep that in mind. There were plenty of things the government could have legitimately done to ease the hard times for the majority of America. But they did the exact opposite, continue to do the exact opposite, and people on both sides continue to condemn the other party while exhalting their own; even though functionally they're doing the same damned thing. The play to the banks by both sides has been damaging to the Republic and to our liberty.

"The end of democracy and defeat of the American Revolution will occur when government falls into the hands of the lending institutions and moneyed incorporations."

"If the American people ever allow banks to issue their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation [by having to maintain a vital circulation by perpetually re-borrowing principal and interest as subsequent sums of debt, increased perpetually so much as periodic interest], the banks and [bank owned] corporations which will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property, until their children wake homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. "
 
donsutherland1 said:
No, but it was the main trigger that ignited the crisis. The dynamite was enormous secular rise in domestic nonfinancial debt, the interrelationship of securities with debt (mortgage-related securities, derivatives), a lack of adequate financial system capital buffer, bad risk management, financial system linkages, current account imbalances that saw a short-term rush of capital inflows that exacerbated the structural weakenesses/accelerated the rise in the housing bubble, etc. Households, the private sector, and public sector all contributed. Technology and regulation converged creating new mechanisms e.g., securitization, that while useful in and of itself, could lead to rapid debt escalation if unchecked (regulations, private sector risk management, lack of understanding of exposures, etc.).

Nonetheless, in what was largely a private sector debt crisis, the housing bubble played the leading role. Once the bubble burst, its fallout spilled over into the financial system, gradually at first, but then at an accelerating rate once financial institutions began failing 18-24 months after housing prices had begun to decline. The mortgage debt binge proved devastating as housing prices fell.

Some statistics on the overall debt binge, which continues today even as it has been tempered by household deleveraging:

For every dollar of GDP increased from 1980-2007, the following occurred with respect to various debt:

Domestic Nonfinancial debt: $2.37
Household: $1.08
Mortgage: $1.13

Now, looking at the housing bubble era, here's what happened in the 2002-07 period for the same data:

Domestic Nonfinancial debt: $4.45
Household: $2.14
Mortgage: $2.43

Moreover, the debt levels relative to GDP were as follows:

1980:
Domestic Nonfinancial debt: 142% of GDP
Household: 50% of GDP
Mortgage: 52% of GDP

2002:
Domestic Nonfinancial debt: 194% of GDP
Household: 80% of GDP
Mortgage: 78% of GDP

2007:
Domestic Nonfinancial debt: 225% of GDP
Household: 98% of GDP
Mortgage: 102% of GDP

During the 2000s, domestic nonfinancial debt rose at just over $3 for every dollar of GDP. Since the end of the recession, household deleveraging (modest but sustained) has continued with public sector debt being substituted for household debt. Domestic nonfinancial debt is rising at a still brisk but slower rate of just over $2.40 per additional dollar of GDP. However, were household deleveraging to end, the rate of increase would be running at just over $3.50 per dollar of additional GDP. Household deleveraging won't continue indefinitely. Hence, the nation remains on an unsustainable debt course. As of 2010 Q4, domestic nonfinancial debt was 244% of GDP, household debt was 90% of GDP, and mortgage debt was 92% of GDP. Prior to the housing bubble, peak mortgage debt came to approximately 67% of GDP.
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No doubt that you have far more financial knowledge than I do, but I think that you are right in that the housing crash was a catylist to the fall, but we have other bigger problems now, such as the culture of spending in DC that absolutely refuse to look at our situation in any meaningful way. We keep the huge unfunded liability welfare programs because we have a culture of the recipiant class voter that is sadly now at nearly half of every voting block out there.

We need strong leadership, and not lead by the sensational press to focus on specticle BS like Wienergate, and get down to saving this country, if we still want it that is.


j-mac
 
danarhea said:
1) Bush policies began the Great Recession.

2) Obama policies have continued the Great Recession.
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If we could get both sides to admit this then we would have made some huge progress. The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem, and I don't think either side wants to take a hard look at the policies their respective leaders have endorsed and how they contributed to our current economic situation.
 
j-mac said:
We need strong leadership, and not lead by the sensational press to focus on specticle BS like Wienergate, and get down to saving this country, if we still want it that is.


j-mac
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I've been saying that for awhile now. But it seems like we desire to turn everything, even news, into some form of entertainment.
 
CriticalThought said:
If we could get both sides to admit this then we would have made some huge progress. The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem, and I don't think either side wants to take a hard look at the policies their respective leaders have endorsed and how they contributed to our current economic situation.
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Why admit where you went wrong or where you can do better when you can instead engage in endless partisan bickering and pissing contests while people eat it up? Just point fingers while refusing to do anything.
 
Heavens to Murgatroyd, what the hell is the matter with you people? As someone once said, you get the government you deserve. You want the government to take care of all your needs, well guess what? The USA federal government is bankrupt, most state governments and many local governments are either already bankrupt or will be soon.

Why the hell would anyone risk their money and put in the time to start up a company in the USA under these conditions? They have no idea what their costs are going to be; when the government will force them to pick up the cost of something someone thinks is a good idea.

If they are successful, they will be demonized as greedy bastards and everyone will clamor for the governments to confiscate more of their money.

No thanks. I am damn glad we got the hell out and invested in places that appreciate our contributions.

Y'all are in the process of commiting national suicide and, watching from the sidelines, it looks like you are going to accomplish it.

.
 
j-mac said:
...we have other bigger problems now, such as the culture of spending in DC that absolutely refuse to look at our situation in any meaningful way. We keep the huge unfunded liability welfare programs because we have a culture of the recipiant class voter that is sadly now at nearly half of every voting block out there.

We need strong leadership, and not lead by the sensational press to focus on specticle BS like Wienergate, and get down to saving this country, if we still want it that is.
Click to expand...

I strongly favor credible fiscal consolidation, fully recognizing that the transition would result in macroeconomic headwinds (reduced GDP growth and reduced employment growth despite fantasy land projections by some politicians that such moves would immediately stimulate the economy). The benefits of fiscal consolidation would be medium- and longer-term in nature (fiscal sustainability, lower interest rates than would otherwise be the case/lower cost of capital for U.S. firms, and a more structurally sound economy).

Unfortunately, at this stage, the kind of political leadership required to strike a grand bargain for fiscal consolidation, which would require addressing the drivers of the long-term imbalances (mandatory spending programs). At the same time, the public's appetite for credible fiscal consolidation, which must deal with those programs, is largely absent. Hence, there is political advantage to postponing credible fiscal consolidation. So long as such advantage exists, political leaders will have an incentive to pursue that advantage. As a result, my guess is that substantive fiscal consolidation will be postponed. I do expect the bulk of promised fiscal consolidation associated with a hike in the debt ceiling to be described in terms of goals, targets, maybe even a balanced budget amendment, the the balanced budget amendment is a low probability scenario. Nonetheless, goals/targets/balanced Budget Amendment absent policy specifics are not credible. Indeed, the large run-up in state debt occurred despite balanced budget amendments that exist in most of those states.

The problem is that evading the difficult decisions now will only lead to an even more difficult situation later. The transition would be more painful, as the imbalances would be larger than they would otherwise be. If a crisis erupts (and the probability would be on the increase in the medium-term and beyon on a business as usual path), the U.S. could approach its theoretical fiscal limit. In such a situation, virtually no spending reductions or tax hikes would be sufficient to stabilize debt and avoid a catastrophic economic contraction. Large spending cuts would kill macroeconomic growth, leading to a collapse of revenues, and additional need for further cuts/tax hikes. Large tax hikes would suffocate economic growth, pushing revenues lower and requiring even greater spending reductions. Greece may be on the brink of such a situation. Ultimately, evasion of today's difficult choices, is an invitation to greater problems down the road, even as U.S. strategic flexibility is diminished.
 
j-mac said:
You are aware that this is a political message board right?


j-mac
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Yes it is. Opinions from everybody are welcome here. Opinions show who are critical thinkers who care about America, and opinions also show who the hyperpartisans are, who put petty politics above country. Thanx for showing us all which one you are.
 
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TOJ said:
Heavens to Murgatroyd, what the hell is the matter with you people? As someone once said, you get the government you deserve. You want the government to take care of all your needs, well guess what? The USA federal government is bankrupt, most state governments and many local governments are either already bankrupt or will be soon.

Why the hell would anyone risk their money and put in the time to start up a company in the USA under these conditions? They have no idea what their costs are going to be; when the government will force them to pick up the cost of something someone thinks is a good idea.

If they are successful, they will be demonized as greedy bastards and everyone will clamor for the governments to confiscate more of their money.

No thanks. I am damn glad we got the hell out and invested in places that appreciate our contributions.

Y'all are in the process of commiting national suicide and, watching from the sidelines, it looks like you are going to accomplish it.

.
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Indeed man. The us is getting exactly what it wanted but never knew it was asking for.
 
danarhea said:
Ain't that the truth. And while Republicans and Democrats continue to point the finger at each other, our nation continues to burn. So, to Democrats and Republicans both, I am going to be very blunt.

1) Bush policies began the Great Recession.

2) Obama policies have continued the Great Recession.

There is no other way to look at it, except that ALL of our leaders have been selling us out.

Look, folks here is the deal. I get madder every day I see Bush people pointing the finger at Obama, and Obama people pointing the finger at Bush, while ignoring their own guy. Where the hell is the sense of patriotism and sacrifice that existed in the 1930's, when our leaders put America before politics? If America goes to hell in a handbasket, I will blame them all, Republicans and Democrats alike. In case anybody forgot, today's politicians, no matter which party, are all scum bags.

Article is here.
Click to expand...

I can appreciate your frustration, but the above is still too much nonsense. "Bush policies" did not cause the Great Recession, although Bush deserves blame for not doing more to keep it from happening, or at least better mitigating it.

In any case, Obama and the Dems, with both Houses, took a bad situation and have now made it much worse. As it stands right at this moment, there are Conservatives, such as many who associate with the Tea Party, and elected folks such as Paul Ryan and Chris Christie for example, who are ready with the tough plans.

It is the Democrats right now who own this mess, and who are continuing to take us off a cliff. Call the Republicans as being too often too nice, and unwilling or unable to stop the madness, but it was democrat-socialist stupidity such as Medicare and Social Security that dominate our budget issues now and for the currently uncontrolled and unfunded future. It is Democrat-Socialism that is the massive fail.
 
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donsutherland1 said:
Ultimately, evasion of today's difficult choices, is an invitation to greater problems down the road, even as U.S. strategic flexibility is diminished.
Click to expand...

That's good because the way our political system and government works, it's really good at opposing the majority to make tough, rapid, decisions.

Not that I have a solution, beacause it also prevents us from making bad, rapid decisions that oppose the majority as well.
 
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The Prof said:
usa today:



U.S. funding for future promises lags by trillions - USATODAY.com

it's been two years since the us senate even proposed a budget---in times like these

and budget chair kent conrad has intimated he will not be coming forth with a blueprint this year either

leadership, anyone?
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You do realize that the Senate doesn't actually have the authority to propose a budget right? The only group that can propose a budget and for spending is the House of Representatives. Once those bills pass the House it is up to the Senate to pass a bill that mirrors the House bill.
 
meanwhile, SIXTY ONE POINT SIX TRILLION

and counting

tick tick...

leadership, anyone?
 
Mach said:
That's good because the way our political system and government works, it's really good at opposing the majority to make tough, rapid, decisions.

Not that I have a solution, beacause it also prevents us from making bad, rapid decisions that oppose the majority as well.
Click to expand...


A major task of leadership is to educate and inform the public and, if necessary, align public support behind policy choices. However, the kind of transformational leaders who have that capacity are rare. FDR, JFK, Reagan were some examples. Most political leaders might have some but not all of the attributes of transformational leaders. Hence, they can make good managers, a role that is valuable during periods of stability and prosperity. But sometimes rapid change or some other turmoil requires a transformational leader. My guess is that such leadership will be required if the nation is to embark on a credible course of fiscal consolidation.
 
StillBallin75 said:
What are you talking about
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$61.6 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

I have to believe that, at this point, it is hopeless. Bankruptcy and default is a guaranteed path for the US.
 
The government added $5.3 trillion in new financial obligations in 2010, largely for retirement programs such as Medicare and Social Security. That brings to a record $61.6 trillion the total of financial promises not paid for.
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link above, usat

you didn't know?

if so, you definitely talk too much and read too little

more power to you, of course
 
ksu_aviator said:
$61.6 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

I have to believe that, at this point, it is hopeless. Bankruptcy and default is a guaranteed path for the US.
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Another reason to get out of debt and build up an emergency fund, to emigrate if necessary.
 
ksu_aviator said:
Cash might not be worth anything in the near future.
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If thats the case, than invest in food, fuel, and bullets, because no investment will.
 
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