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Thread: Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

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    Re: Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

    Here’s the thing, Obama was elected on the promise he could fix economy. Dems held all the power to do whatever they wanted to fix the economy. They used this power to implement Keynesian economic theory. All that did was put is in debt up to our eyeballs and keep public union members employed a bit longer than they would have been so at the moment this is Dems economy. They own it and should take responsibility for it.Thats not partisan it’s just fact.

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    Re: Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    It should be noted that the underlying seeds of the financial crisis, namely the housing bubble, that led to the Great Recession were planted well before either Presidents Bush and Obama took office. Moreover, they were not entirely political in nature. Bad policy contributed. But the convergence of factors was far broader than public policy.

    So you believe that the housing bubble was the only thing causing this current mess?

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    Re: Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

    Quote Originally Posted by ric27 View Post
    BS -

    When history looks back on what he did right and what he did wrong, I wonder if they'll consider this.

    Before the first year of Bush's first term was over, we suffered the worst terrorist attack in the history of the world and the nation.

    Before the first year off second term was over, we suffered the worst natural disaster (Katrina) in the history of the country
    Hey, folks. Lookie here. Within minutes, someone comes in here and makes a post that perfectly proves my point.
    Last edited by danarhea; 06-07-11 at 10:21 AM.
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    Re: Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

    Quote Originally Posted by Risky Thicket View Post
    Here we go, right on cue. Paritsan gotcha.
    here we go, cue partisan denial
    I'M VOTING FOR THE WHITE GUY THIS TIME

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    Re: Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

    Quote Originally Posted by danarhea View Post
    Hey, folks. Lookie here. Within minutes, someone comes in here and makes a post that perfectly proves my point.
    You are aware that this is a political message board right?


    j-mac
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    Re: Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    So you believe that the housing bubble was the only thing causing this current mess?

    j-mac
    it was the largest single factor though.. no ifs ands or buts
    I'M VOTING FOR THE WHITE GUY THIS TIME

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    Re: Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    So you believe that the housing bubble was the only thing causing this current mess?

    j-mac
    No, but it was the main trigger that ignited the crisis. The dynamite was enormous secular rise in domestic nonfinancial debt, the interrelationship of securities with debt (mortgage-related securities, derivatives), a lack of adequate financial system capital buffer, bad risk management, financial system linkages, current account imbalances that saw a short-term rush of capital inflows that exacerbated the structural weakenesses/accelerated the rise in the housing bubble, etc. Households, the private sector, and public sector all contributed. Technology and regulation converged creating new mechanisms e.g., securitization, that while useful in and of itself, could lead to rapid debt escalation if unchecked (regulations, private sector risk management, lack of understanding of exposures, etc.).

    Nonetheless, in what was largely a private sector debt crisis, the housing bubble played the leading role. Once the bubble burst, its fallout spilled over into the financial system, gradually at first, but then at an accelerating rate once financial institutions began failing 18-24 months after housing prices had begun to decline. The mortgage debt binge proved devastating as housing prices fell.

    Some statistics on the overall debt binge, which continues today even as it has been tempered by household deleveraging:

    For every dollar of GDP increased from 1980-2007, the following occurred with respect to various debt:

    Domestic Nonfinancial debt: $2.37
    Household: $1.08
    Mortgage: $1.13

    Now, looking at the housing bubble era, here's what happened in the 2002-07 period for the same data:

    Domestic Nonfinancial debt: $4.45
    Household: $2.14
    Mortgage: $2.43

    Moreover, the debt levels relative to GDP were as follows:

    1980:
    Domestic Nonfinancial debt: 142% of GDP
    Household: 50% of GDP
    Mortgage: 52% of GDP

    2002:
    Domestic Nonfinancial debt: 194% of GDP
    Household: 80% of GDP
    Mortgage: 78% of GDP

    2007:
    Domestic Nonfinancial debt: 225% of GDP
    Household: 98% of GDP
    Mortgage: 102% of GDP

    During the 2000s, domestic nonfinancial debt rose at just over $3 for every dollar of GDP. Since the end of the recession, household deleveraging (modest but sustained) has continued with public sector debt being substituted for household debt. Domestic nonfinancial debt is rising at a still brisk but slower rate of just over $2.40 per additional dollar of GDP. However, were household deleveraging to end, the rate of increase would be running at just over $3.50 per dollar of additional GDP. Household deleveraging won't continue indefinitely. Hence, the nation remains on an unsustainable debt course. As of 2010 Q4, domestic nonfinancial debt was 244% of GDP, household debt was 90% of GDP, and mortgage debt was 92% of GDP. Prior to the housing bubble, peak mortgage debt came to approximately 67% of GDP.

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    Re: Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

    usa today:

    The federal government's financial condition deteriorated rapidly last year, far beyond the $1.5 trillion in new debt taken on to finance the budget deficit, a USA TODAY analysis shows.

    The government added $5.3 trillion in new financial obligations in 2010, largely for retirement programs such as Medicare and Social Security. That brings to a record $61.6 trillion the total of financial promises not paid for.

    This gap between spending commitments and revenue last year equals more than one-third of the nation's gross domestic product.

    Medicare alone took on $1.8 trillion in new liabilities, more than the record deficit prompting heated debate between Congress and the White House over lifting the debt ceiling.

    Social Security added $1.4 trillion in obligations, partly reflecting longer life expectancies. Federal and military retirement programs added more to the financial hole, too.

    The $61.6 trillion in unfunded obligations amounts to $534,000 per household. That's more than five times what Americans have borrowed for everything else — mortgages, car loans and other debt. It reflects the challenge as the number of retirees soars over the next 20 years and seniors try to collect on those spending promises.
    U.S. funding for future promises lags by trillions - USATODAY.com

    it's been two years since the us senate even proposed a budget---in times like these

    and budget chair kent conrad has intimated he will not be coming forth with a blueprint this year either

    leadership, anyone?

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    Re: Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

    I heard an analyst say that the GDP growth is not enough to keep up with population growth, nor is the the job growth enough to keep pace. In other words, while the GDP is technically up, it has never been up enough to be considered a real growth rate. Meaning, we have technically grown but the reality is the economy has been in a contraction since 2008.
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    Re: Chronic unemployment worse than Great Depression

    Quote Originally Posted by shades View Post
    it was the largest single factor though.. no ifs ands or buts
    I'm no economist, but blue and white collar jobs have been moving overseas for as long as I can remember. Nearly everyone I know, including a friend just yesterday, has just had their job moved to Asia. While the housing bubble blew everything up, the foundation for making a recovery extraordinarily difficult has been put in place for three decades. Businesses can't start hiring Americans again if they've moved to India.

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