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Thread: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

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    Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Things are looking bleak for the Obamanator. Looks like things aren't improving, despite so many hard core liberals on this forum trying to convince us otherwise.

    Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy - FoxNews.com

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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Cue "the republicans are causing this by holding the debt ceiling hostage" in 3...2...1...
    "Hmmm...Can't decide if I want to watch "Four Houses" or give myself an Icy Hot pee hole enema..." - Blake Shelton


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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    The recent economic deceleration has little to do with the debt ceiling negotiations. It has more to do with the ongoing hand-off from stimulus to the private sector. In part, the macroeconomic deceleration in growth is the result of the hand-off from stimulus to the private sector. The hiring slowdown is a function of the broader deceleration in macroeconomic growth. Weekly unemployment claims is a somewhat leading indicator relative to macroeconomic activity. Overall employment is a somewhat lagging indicator. The deceleration holds lessons for the larger task of fiscal consolidation--a task that is necessary, even as it will entail pain and sacrifice in terms of reduced short-term economic growth and reduced short-term job creation (reduced from levels that would otherwise occur).

    GDP:

    Year-on-year (2010 Q1 to 2011 Q1), one has seen the following:

    Change in real GDP: +2.3%
    Change in real federal government consumption and investments: +2.1%
    Change in real GDP ex. Federal Government: +2.3%

    The hand-off began in earnest in 2011 Q1 and has continued. Annualized 2010 QIV to 2011 Q1 figures show that the hand off has sliced about 0.9% off annualized real GDP growth:

    Change in real GDP: +1.8%
    Change in real federal government consumption and investments: -7.9%
    Change in real GDP ex. Federal Government: +2.7%

    It should be noted that the figures likely understate the drag created by the hand-off, as a 1:1 impact is utilized, which ignores the reality that direct expenditures by the federal government have a multiplier > 1. For illustrative purposes, the impact is useful.

    Weekly Unemployment Claims (12-week moving average):

    Period Ending:
    4/9 398,333
    4/16 398,917
    4/24 406,167
    5/1 407,667
    5/8 410,167
    5/15 414,583
    5/22 416,000

    Change in Private-Sector Non-Farm Employment (6-month moving average):

    Period Ending:
    January 2011 +139,500
    February 2011 +159,167
    March 2011 +177,000
    April 2011 +186,667
    May 2011 +179,167

    In sum, the data is consistent with the large body of empirical evidence that fiscal consolidation has a contractionary macroeconomic impact and employment growth is closely tied to macroeconomic performance and expectations about future macroeconomic performance.

    Austerity/fiscal consolidation will not be painless. Political leaders who argue otherwise are ignoring empirical economic data. Nonetheless, it is necessary. The enhanced growth outlook would be a benefit for the medium-term and beyond (reduced risk premia, reduced debt overhang, etc.). The transition to the more sustainable fiscal position would entail sacrifice, including foregone short-term macroeconomic growth and foregone short-term job creation. The adverse macroeconomic and employment impact of business as usual would, of course, be much worse than the sacrifices during transition (fiscal consolidation).
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 06-03-11 at 01:33 PM.

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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    The recent economic deceleration has little to do with the debt ceiling negotiations. It has more to do with the ongoing hand-off from stimulus to the private sector. In part, the macroeconomic deceleration in growth is the result of the hand-off from stimulus to the private sector. The hiring slowdown is a function of the broader deceleration in macroeconomic growth. Weekly unemployment claims is a coincident to slightly lagging indicator relative to macroeconomic activity. Overall employment is a somewhat lagging indicator. The deceleration holds lessons for the larger task of fiscal consolidation--a task that is necessary, even as it will entail pain and sacrifice in terms of reduced short-term economic growth and reduced short-term job creation (reduced from levels that would otherwise occur).

    GDP:

    Year-on-year (2010 Q1 to 2011 Q1), one has seen the following:

    Change in real GDP: +2.3%
    Change in real federal government consumption and investments: +2.1%
    Change in real GDP ex. Federal Government: +2.3%

    The hand-off began in earnest in 2011 Q1 and has continued. Annualized 2010 QIV to 2011 Q1 figures show that the hand off has sliced about 0.9% off annualized real GDP growth:

    Change in real GDP: +1.8%
    Change in real federal government consumption and investments: -7.9%
    Change in real GDP ex. Federal Government: +2.7%

    It should be noted that the figures likely understate the drag created by the hand-off, as a 1:1 impact is utilized, which ignores the reality that direct expenditures by the federal government have a multiplier > 1. For illustrative purposes, the impact is useful.

    Weekly Unemployment Claims (12-week moving average):

    Period Ending:
    4/9 398,333
    4/16 398,917
    4/24 406,167
    5/1 407,667
    5/8 410,167
    5/15 414,583
    5/22 416,000

    Change in Private-Sector Non-Farm Employment (6-month moving average):

    Period Ending:
    January 2011 +139,500
    February 2011 +159,167
    March 2011 +177,000
    April 2011 +186,667
    May 2011 +179,167

    In sum, the data is consistent with the large body of empirical evidence that fiscal consolidation has a contractionary macroeconomic impact and employment growth is closely tied to macroeconomic performance and expectations about future macroeconomic performance.

    Austerity/fiscal consolidation will not be painless. Political leaders who argue otherwise are ignoring empirical economic data. Nonetheless, it is necessary. The enhanced growth outlook would be a benefit for the medium-term and beyond (reduced risk premia, reduced debt overhang, etc.). The transition to the more sustainable fiscal position would entail sacrifice, including foregone short-term macroeconomic growth and foregone short-term job creation. The adverse macroeconomic and employment impact of business as usual would, of course, be much worse than the sacrifices during transition (fiscal consolidation).
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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    I would like to remind the liberals on this board that in 2009, Obama presented a chart of what unemployment would look like if we passed his trillion dollar stimulus. At this time, it should be below 7 percent. Liar n chief lies again.

    Thank God we spent that trillion dollars, huh? I mean imagine what it would be if we weren't in debt up to our eyeballs?

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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by dontworrybehappy View Post
    I would like to remind the liberals on this board that in 2009, Obama presented a chart of what unemployment would look like if we passed his trillion dollar stimulus. At this time, it should be below 7 percent. Liar n chief lies again.

    Thank God we spent that trillion dollars, huh? I mean imagine what it would be if we weren't in debt up to our eyeballs?
    It's because of the republicans. They stopped so much legislation that it killed his stimulus. Which is working!! Vote Obama, 2012!

    *headdesk*
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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by tessaesque View Post
    It's because of the republicans. They stopped so much legislation that it killed his stimulus. Which is working!! Vote Obama, 2012!

    *headdesk*
    Right.... It would have been a great PR move to tell the nation that we were inches away from a super depression (not to be confused with a great depression that occurred in the 1930's)
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by dontworrybehappy View Post
    I would like to remind the liberals on this board that in 2009, Obama presented a chart of what unemployment would look like if we passed his trillion dollar stimulus. At this time, it should be below 7 percent. Liar n chief lies again.

    Thank God we spent that trillion dollars, huh? I mean imagine what it would be if we weren't in debt up to our eyeballs?
    I would like to remind our conservative on the board that the chart and the report it came from made clear repeatedly that it was a projection and could be wrong based on how things went.

    Being wrong on future events now is lying. Good thing we never use stupid rhetoric around here...
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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by tessaesque View Post
    Cue "the republicans are causing this by holding the debt ceiling hostage" in 3...2...1...
    Wait, aren't you guys the ones who keep saying uncertainty causes a lot of this lack of hiring?
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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Until you realize that the government can't do much to create jobs.

    Quote Originally Posted by dontworrybehappy View Post
    I would like to remind the liberals on this board that in 2009, Obama presented a chart of what unemployment would look like if we passed his trillion dollar stimulus. At this time, it should be below 7 percent. Liar n chief lies again.
    Then we shouldn't believe the Ryan budget for the same reasons. 2.5% unemployment? Are you insane?
    Last edited by xpiher; 06-03-11 at 02:27 PM.

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