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Thread: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

  1. #21
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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    The recent economic deceleration has little to do with the debt ceiling negotiations. It has more to do with the ongoing hand-off from stimulus to the private sector. In part, the macroeconomic deceleration in growth is the result of the hand-off from stimulus to the private sector. The hiring slowdown is a function of the broader deceleration in macroeconomic growth. Weekly unemployment claims is a somewhat leading indicator relative to macroeconomic activity. Overall employment is a somewhat lagging indicator. The deceleration holds lessons for the larger task of fiscal consolidation--a task that is necessary, even as it will entail pain and sacrifice in terms of reduced short-term economic growth and reduced short-term job creation (reduced from levels that would otherwise occur).

    GDP:

    Year-on-year (2010 Q1 to 2011 Q1), one has seen the following:

    Change in real GDP: +2.3%
    Change in real federal government consumption and investments: +2.1%
    Change in real GDP ex. Federal Government: +2.3%

    The hand-off began in earnest in 2011 Q1 and has continued. Annualized 2010 QIV to 2011 Q1 figures show that the hand off has sliced about 0.9% off annualized real GDP growth:

    Change in real GDP: +1.8%
    Change in real federal government consumption and investments: -7.9%
    Change in real GDP ex. Federal Government: +2.7%

    It should be noted that the figures likely understate the drag created by the hand-off, as a 1:1 impact is utilized, which ignores the reality that direct expenditures by the federal government have a multiplier > 1. For illustrative purposes, the impact is useful.

    Weekly Unemployment Claims (12-week moving average):

    Period Ending:
    4/9 398,333
    4/16 398,917
    4/24 406,167
    5/1 407,667
    5/8 410,167
    5/15 414,583
    5/22 416,000

    Change in Private-Sector Non-Farm Employment (6-month moving average):

    Period Ending:
    January 2011 +139,500
    February 2011 +159,167
    March 2011 +177,000
    April 2011 +186,667
    May 2011 +179,167

    In sum, the data is consistent with the large body of empirical evidence that fiscal consolidation has a contractionary macroeconomic impact and employment growth is closely tied to macroeconomic performance and expectations about future macroeconomic performance.

    Austerity/fiscal consolidation will not be painless. Political leaders who argue otherwise are ignoring empirical economic data. Nonetheless, it is necessary. The enhanced growth outlook would be a benefit for the medium-term and beyond (reduced risk premia, reduced debt overhang, etc.). The transition to the more sustainable fiscal position would entail sacrifice, including foregone short-term macroeconomic growth and foregone short-term job creation. The adverse macroeconomic and employment impact of business as usual would, of course, be much worse than the sacrifices during transition (fiscal consolidation).
    Rewording IMF .pdf documents, not citing them trying to look smart...

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/.../02/pdf/c3.pdf

    For shame don, for shame sir.
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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by rcart76 View Post
    Damn it Obama !!!! He should have listen to the republicans and gave the wealthy Americans the tax cuts that would have started job creation. We would be in a much better situation right now.... Oh wait
    LOL Really the only reson why the pubs did so well in midterm was that they were the job creaters... Maybe we need more time for trickle down to work? I guess pubs enjoy a good golden shower...(am I bad?)

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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by tessaesque View Post
    ...everybody (all income levels) maintained the same cuts that Bush and a democrat-heavy legislature agreed upon. Nobody received additional tax breaks. We all received a break on "withholdings" that was affective for one year, but it didn't change obligation. Not sure what you're talking about.
    My point is that we should have never extended the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy americans. The GOP whole argument is if we tax the rich, they would cut jobs. Well guess what, we gave them whated and they are still cutting jobs. And now the Ryan plan is trying to lower it another 10% !!!! WTF!!!!!

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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by rcart76 View Post
    My point is that we should have never extended the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy americans. The GOP whole argument is if we tax the rich, they would cut jobs. Well guess what, we gave them whated and they are still cutting jobs. And now the Ryan plan is trying to lower it another 10% !!!! WTF!!!!!
    I'm not going to address the GOP argument. We have different perspectives and it's a non-issue now.

    The Ryan plan was voted down. Now there are no plans...including anything coming from the left. So what now? Where do we go?
    "Hmmm...Can't decide if I want to watch "Four Houses" or give myself an Icy Hot pee hole enema..." - Blake Shelton


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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by tessaesque View Post
    Because buyers need money, not sellers. The caveat on the money should have been that it went into retirement plans and employee payroll instead of corporate investments.
    Dear lord, a conservative who understands that customers are the real "job creators." Quick, somebody tag her with a tranq dart for further study.
    He touched her over her bra and underpants, she says, and guided her hand to touch him over his underwear
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    We’ll say what? Something like “nothing happened” ... Yeah, we might say something like that.

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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by BentWingedAngel View Post
    LOL Really the only reson why the pubs did so well in midterm was that they were the job creaters... Maybe we need more time for trickle down to work? I guess pubs enjoy a good golden shower...(am I bad?)
    Yes you are

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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Wait, aren't you guys the ones who keep saying uncertainty causes a lot of this lack of hiring?
    I say it all the time because it's a fact, most of the growth of our economy is based on how people see the immediate future. It's what fuel the stock market, the housing market, sales of all commodities,except the most basic required to live, and so manufacturing, and finally hiring.


    FDR was a Socialist but he for one thing right, and the was when he said: "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."


    Republicans blocking any of the Trifecta of Doom. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid's plans is what has kept us from going completely broke over a year ago. These fools believed they could borough, tax and spend our way to prosperity, when history says it's never worked and today's numbers show we are still in the Obama slide into oblivion.


    We have to cut taxes on everyone and everything, reduce regulations on business, open up every place for oil drilling and shut Obama the hell up because he's a damn fool.

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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by tessaesque View Post
    I'm not going to address the GOP argument. We have different perspectives and it's a non-issue now.

    The Ryan plan was voted down. Now there are no plans...including anything coming from the left. So what now? Where do we go?
    I agree with you here. There is equal blame to go around. Neither sides are focus on jobs.

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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Councilman View Post
    We have to cut taxes on everyone and everything, reduce regulations on business, open up every place for oil drilling and shut Obama the hell up because he's a damn fool.
    Or, we can have a smart tax code, reduce useless regulations (not all regulations are useless), and invest in alternative energies. This would create jobs as well and is far more pragmatic than cut cut cut drill

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    Re: Dismal Jobs Report Fuels GOP Criticism of Administration on Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    Rewording IMF .pdf documents, not citing them trying to look smart...

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/.../02/pdf/c3.pdf

    For shame don, for shame sir.
    FYI, I am well aware of the IMF's work, recent AEI paper, among many other papers on fiscal consolidation. However, the general principle that fiscal consolidation has a contractionary effect is well-established in macroeconomic literature. It is also inherent in the GDP equation (consumption + investment + net exports (- figure for net imports) + government spending.

    Were I to cite specifics unique to a given paper e.g., to note that spending-driven consolidation is less contractionary then tax-driven consolidation, I most certainly would cite the relevant documents. As I was just discussing the general widely-established principle, I felt that there was no need to cite specific literature.

    P.S. The GDP data is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP reports and the Weekly Unemployment Claims/Employment Data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 06-03-11 at 02:57 PM.

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