Catawa is my favorite bleeding heart liberal.
"For what is Evil but Good-tortured by its own hunger and thirst?"
- Khalil Gibran
What i highlighted is a prime example of someone, excuse me for my directness, stupidity. You are just repeating the same talking points that most liberals spew when they really don't know a thing about the woman. Stupid? She is hardly stupid but very intelligent. Her energy experience isn't matched by anyone as of right now, she had a very successful governorship (yes she quit, and guess what, she did more positive in that short time than obama has done his whole political career) and sorry to burst your bubble, majority of Americans actually do share her political beliefs.
I read somewhere that Palin is coming out with a documentary about herself titled "The Undefeated." Which I find a bit funny since she did LOSE the 2008 election.
The bet in question is one where, if someone had a lot of confidence in Ron Paul's chances to win but was worried about the chance of losing in the scenario you describe, they could easily hedge the bet by trading off a certain amount of their contracts for a profit when the price increases.
For example, Ron Paul is trading at about 2.2 (which translates to 22 cents) right now. If he wins the election, it will be worth 100 (which is $10) per "share". Let's say one bets $11 on Ron Paul at 2.2 a share. Then they have 50 shares. If they held each one until Ron Paul wins the election, this would be worth $500. $489 profit on an investment of $11, which ain't too shabby.
But since you are worried about the unlikely scenario you describe occuring, let's say that you are smart about it and decide to trade off a portion of your shares in order to hedge your bet. Since the current rate is 2.2, a smart time to sell would be when you can sell for 11, or $1.10 per share. Then you can sell off 10 shares of that initial 50 in oredr to recoup your initial investment price of $11 while still holding onto 40 shares which would be worth $400 if Ron Paul won the election.
Since the unlikely scenario of assasination before he could have his chance at winning the election would only occur if there was a legitimate chance of him winning, the price would certainly exceed 11.0 (or $1.10) well before the theoretical assasination would happen.
Ergo, your position on this bet is an irrational one. It definitely does not take reason and understanding into account.
So, like I said, if you were a betting man, you would not be worried about the statistically unlikley event of an assasination.
However, you would have to consider the statistically greater likelihood of death by natural causes at his age, since that is the only thing that would actually prevent the bet from reaching the point of recapturing the initial investment if he really does have a legitimate shot at winning the election.
Now, the post that triggered this particular exchange is one that implies that you are not a betting man since you said if you were a betting man. Your reasoning for avoiding the bet actually proves that you aren't a betting man.
The problem with that statement was that if you were a betting man, you wouldn't be thinking about the bet like you have. You would be thinking about it like I have described above. And you'd be making a profit if your theories are actually correct, even the one about assasination because then you'd sell off all of the shares early in order to get out before the assasination occured.
See, you were so interested in pretending that I'm arguing from the position of an "establishment shill", you completely missed the fact that I am a betting man and I was actually arguing from the position of a person who is a betting man. If I believed everything that you claim to believe, I'd take that bet in a heartbeat. It would be a smart bet if your beliefs are actually true..
Concerted? Not really. I think they are biased towards the partisan dichotmy in this country though, which doesn't bode well for people like Ron Paul.Do you even acknowledge that the establishment media has a concerted agenda against Ron Paul?
Tucker Case - Tard magnet.