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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST 1 October 2016

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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST 1 October 2016

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 24 Republican seats up for re-election vs. 10 for the Democrats.

Safe Democratic seats 9: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington.

The Democrats have only one at risk seat this election cycle, Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (14): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah.

The Republicans have 10 at risks seats this election cycle, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Arizona McCain R – McCain has opened up a double digit lead over Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick in two September polls by NBC/WSJ and Insight West. What is interesting is Trump has only a two-point lead over Clinton here while McCain is averaging a 12-point lead in retaining his senate seat. Republican hold R 54 D 46.

Florida Rubio R – There has been nine polls conducted in Florida in September, Senator Rubio is averaging a six-point lead over Democrat Patrick Murphy. In Florida Rubio is ahead by six, Trump trails Clinton by one. Republican hold. R 54 D 46

Illinois Kirk R – Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth is ahead of the incumbent Kirk by an average of four points. I’m surprised the race is still this close, but I expect Duckworth will be increasing her lead as the election nears. Democratic gain R 53 D 47

Indiana – Coats R – Democrat Evan Bayh’s lead has shrunk from seven points last month to four this month over Republican Todd Young. Perhaps it is not surprising considering Trump has a seven-point lead and his VP Pence is from Indiana. But both Evan Bayh and his father Birch Bayh have been very popular in Indiana. Both had served as a senator from that state. I’m going with Bayh. Democratic gain R 52 D 48

Missouri Blount R – Incumbent Blount lead has shrunk to two-points over Democratic challenger Jason Kander. It was seven last month. Nonetheless, I’m sticking with Blount. Republican Hold R 52 D 48

Nevada Reid D – There has been eight polls of this senate race during September. Averaging them out gives Republican Joe Heck a four-point advantage over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for Reid’s seat. The Democrat led by two last month. With six of the eight polls showing Heck ahead, I am switching Nevada from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain R 53 D 47

New Hampshire Ayotte R – New Hampshire has been polled five times in September. Democrat Hassan led in two, Republican Ayotte in three. This race is really too close to call. But with Clinton up by six over Trump, democratic coat tails will pull Hanson to the win. Democratic gain R 52 D 48

North Carolina Burr R – With eleven polls conducted in September, his race is one of the most polled and the closest one when averaging all eleven polls together. Democrat Deborah Ross holds a slim one-point lead over incumbent Burr. The presidential race is just as close, so no coat tails to help either candidate. I’m sticking with the incumbent Burr. Republican hold R 52 D 48

Ohio Portman R – Incumbent Republican Portman holds a double digit lead over Democrat Ted Strickland. No contest and thoughts of placing Ohio into the safe Republican category. Republican hold R 52 D 48

Pennsylvania Toomey R – Democrat McGinty retains her four-point lead in seven polls this month over incumbent Toomey. That is the same lead she had last month. Democratic Gain R 51 D 49

Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold maintains his ten point lead this month, same as last month. Democratic Gain R 50 D 50

This month I changed Nevada from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain which gives us a 50-50 split in the senate. That is if the Republicans can hold onto North Carolina, if not the senate will go Democratic. The reverse is true for New Hampshire and the Democrats, if the Democrats fail to take New Hampshire, the Republicans will maintain control of the senate if they keep North Carolina. Whichever party wins the White House will likely control the senate with the Vice President casting the tie breaking votes.


House of Representatives

This last month brought big changes to the House scene. Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. This month the Republicans have 32 seats at risk to 8 for the Democrats. Last month the numbers were 33 for the GOP and 7 for the Democrats. The Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take over control of the House. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats will pick up 13 of the GOP’s at risk seats, down from 20 last month. The Republicans will pick up one of the eight Democratic at risk seats giving the Democrats a net gain of 12. That is 7 less seats than last month. The new House will have 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats.

Presidential Election

I use party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, the two major party’s nominees along with the Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Here are this month’s results.


Last month had Clinton at 42.5%, Trump 35.7%, Johnson 9.7% and Stein 4.3% with almost 8% of the electorate undecided. This month Clinton is at 44.2%, a slight rise of 1.7 points. Trump comes in at 41.9%, a significant rise of 6.2 points. Johnson fell to 8.1% and Stein to 2.3% as it seems some third party voters in the past are making a choice between the two major party candidates instead. Undecideds fell to just 3.5%. That’s not a lot of wiggle room for Trump among the undecideds to gain on Clinton. Somehow to be successful, Trump will have to figure out a way to attract more Johnson voters and bring some disgruntled anti or never Trump Republicans back into the fold. It needs to be noted last month’s party affiliation numbers were taken right after the Democratic convention and may have skewed some numbers in Clinton’s favor. Some interesting numbers show 20% of all independents are still voting for a third party candidate, down from 28% last month. Also last month independents were going for Trump 35-34, this month Trump increased his advantage among independents to 42-35 which was one cause for Trump’s 6.2-point rise along with 1.6% drop among Johnson voters moving aboard the Trump train. Clinton’s slight rise was due to Stein voter’s returning to the Democratic fold. Compare these number to 2012 when Romney won the independent vote 51-45 over Obama. Both major party candidates are running ten points behind the total run up by their party’s candidates in 2012 among independents.



On the Electoral College side, 270 electoral votes needed to win. In states where either Trump or Clinton have at least a 5-point lead or more, Clinton leads 262 to 182, last month it was Clinton 266-145. Clinton is within four electoral votes of a win in these safe or likely Democratic states. Adding the states where one or the other candidate leads by three or four points, the count goes to Clinton 262, Trump 199. Last month’s count, Clinton 335, Trump 154. This leaves the states of Colorado and Florida where Clinton leads by a single point. The state of Nevada where Trump leads by one, Ohio where Trump is up by two and North Carolina where Clinton is up by two. A win in one of these five states will give Clinton the presidency. Colorado and Nevada given their voting history will probably go to Clinton, Ohio to Trump giving us an electoral count of 277-217 regardless of how Florida and North Carolina goes. Since Clinton has lead in the two post-debate polls in Florida, I am giving her that state. I am also giving Trump North Carolina than for no other reason that is what my gut is telling me. The final tally for 1 October is Clinton 306, Trump 232.

2016 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
March Electoral vote R 200 D 338
April Electoral vote R 200 D 338
May Electoral vote R 206 D 332
June Electoral vote R 235 D 303
July Electoral vote R 185 D 353
August Electoral vote R 209 D 329
August II Electoral vote R 191 D 347
October Electoral vote R 232 D 306
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  1. CanadaJohn's Avatar
    Good morning Pero,

    Thanks for the update - I'd only quibble with you about Ayotte. I don't see her losing her seat because I don't see Hillary Clinton having any coattails at all. Clinton is mainly polling below 50% and where she might have an edge on Trump in the State that edge will not translate to support down the ticket, particularly in a place like NH, because that edge is mostly an anti-Trump edge.

    Have fun and hope you had a good summer - take care.
  2. polgara's Avatar
    Greetings, Pero.

    Excellent, as usual! I'm glad you decided to make this your hobby because I only trust you and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight to tell us the truth - all the others have shown how biased they are. Thanks for your hard work no matter what the end result may be - although I think we'll probably be s****ed either way, truth be told!

    I think the next POTUS debate will make a difference, one way or the other, because I think Trump has learned that he has to be ready for anything, so I won't be surprised if he goes on attack to at least correct - or clarify - what was said in the first debate. I am disgusted at how vicious this campaign has become, and I'll be glad when it's over!
  3. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn
    Good morning Pero,

    Thanks for the update - I'd only quibble with you about Ayotte. I don't see her losing her seat because I don't see Hillary Clinton having any coattails at all. Clinton is mainly polling below 50% and where she might have an edge on Trump in the State that edge will not translate to support down the ticket, particularly in a place like NH, because that edge is mostly an anti-Trump edge.

    Have fun and hope you had a good summer - take care.

    I hear you CJ, New Hampshire is really too close to call. Evenly divided and Clinton's lead of six was my deciding factor. I'm not certain how many ticket splitters there are up in New Hampshire, so this could go either way. The key to senate control boils down to New Hampshire and North Carolina. Rubio's re-entrance in the Florida senate race took a Democratic gain away from the Democrats and Bayh deciding to try to take Coat's old seat in Indiana took a safe senate seat away from the GOP. So they sort of cancel each other out. I am still surprised with 24 seats up this year for the Republicans vs. ten for the Democrats, the Dems are having this much of a problem getting the seats they need to regain control.

    I had a good summer, good to hear from you.
  4. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by polgara
    Greetings, Pero.

    Excellent, as usual! I'm glad you decided to make this your hobby because I only trust you and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight to tell us the truth - all the others have shown how biased they are. Thanks for your hard work no matter what the end result may be - although I think we'll probably be s****ed either way, truth be told!

    I think the next POTUS debate will make a difference, one way or the other, because I think Trump has learned that he has to be ready for anything, so I won't be surprised if he goes on attack to at least correct - or clarify - what was said in the first debate. I am disgusted at how vicious this campaign has become, and I'll be glad when it's over!

    It is my opinion Trump blew the debate. All he had to do since expectations were so low for him and Clinton had painted him as the devil reincarnated. All he had to do was show up and act presidential and to show the people he had no horns. With his antics and especially his need to constantly attack people who says something bad about him, his foot in mouth disease, it makes me wonder at times if Trump wants to win or if he has some other alternate motive for running for president. Of course I have already delved into that which belongs into the conspiracy theory thread.
  5. pilot16's Avatar
    NH is going to go down to the wire. Johnson is polling pretty well here so its somewhat unclear if that will hold or not. Also Hassan has issues over her husbands handling of rape and sexual abuses while he was Headmaster at a prep school, while that doesn't affect her directly, PACs and such are nevertheless running ads about it with the victims coming forward alleging he knew and did nothing. Another issue is the heroin crisis here with both sides trying to say they were "Better" than the other handling it. It will be close and down to the minute polls close.
  6. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    NH is going to go down to the wire. Johnson is polling pretty well here so its somewhat unclear if that will hold or not. Also Hassan has issues over her husbands handling of rape and sexual abuses while he was Headmaster at a prep school, while that doesn't affect her directly, PACs and such are nevertheless running ads about it with the victims coming forward alleging he knew and did nothing. Another issue is the heroin crisis here with both sides trying to say they were "Better" than the other handling it. It will be close and down to the minute polls close.

    I hear you and thanks for the info. Clinton is up by six in NH, Ayotte has a 1.6 point lead averaging six September polls out, the latest was a WBUR poll showing Hansen ahead by 2. Then there is the governor's race showing Sununu up by six. So NH is all over the place. Basically NH senate is too close to call, but I like going out on a limb. If the Republicans can pick up Nevada, hang on to NH and NC, that probably would doom the Democrats chance of taking back the senate.

    That is something last year, the GOP retaining the senate I would have thought was impossible last year. Especially with 24 GOP seats up vs. only 10 for the Dems. This is where politics and elections are always interesting, one get surprised all the time.

    I appreciate your input.
  7. tres borrachos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista
    I hear you CJ, New Hampshire is really too close to call. Evenly divided and Clinton's lead of six was my deciding factor. I'm not certain how many ticket splitters there are up in New Hampshire, so this could go either way. The key to senate control boils down to New Hampshire and North Carolina. Rubio's re-entrance in the Florida senate race took a Democratic gain away from the Democrats and Bayh deciding to try to take Coat's old seat in Indiana took a safe senate seat away from the GOP. So they sort of cancel each other out. I am still surprised with 24 seats up this year for the Republicans vs. ten for the Democrats, the Dems are having this much of a problem getting the seats they need to regain control.

    I had a good summer, good to hear from you.
    Hi Pero,

    I do hope you're wrong about Ayotte. But I can't believe how close this election is. I hope that Trump doesn't pull her down, but I agree with you that it's a very real possibility. What I hope help her is the very close governor's race (John Sununu's son Chris is our Republican candidate), and also the fact that the 2nd CD has a really popular black candidate named Jim Lawrence who is generating a lot of excitement. They may both help her.

    What I think may hurt her is her inability to disavow Trump, a dumb comment she made about him being a role model, and the fact that John Sununu has now endorsed Trump.
  8. tres borrachos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    NH is going to go down to the wire. Johnson is polling pretty well here so its somewhat unclear if that will hold or not. Also Hassan has issues over her husbands handling of rape and sexual abuses while he was Headmaster at a prep school, while that doesn't affect her directly, PACs and such are nevertheless running ads about it with the victims coming forward alleging he knew and did nothing. Another issue is the heroin crisis here with both sides trying to say they were "Better" than the other handling it. It will be close and down to the minute polls close.
    The ads against Hassan are deservedly brutal for what happened at Exeter. Not because she did anything, but I guess it's fair game. And the anti-Ayotte ads saying she "voted with the Koch brothers 90% of the time" are just incredibly stupid, considering they don't vote in Congress.

    I'm already tired of the drug crisis ads and the ads with Ayotte's daughter and mother. I am going to vote for her though, no question. Are you in the 1st or 2nd CD?
  9. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos
    Hi Pero,

    I do hope you're wrong about Ayotte. But I can't believe how close this election is. I hope that Trump doesn't pull her down, but I agree with you that it's a very real possibility. What I hope help her is the very close governor's race (John Sununu's son Chris is our Republican candidate), and also the fact that the 2nd CD has a really popular black candidate named Jim Lawrence who is generating a lot of excitement. They may both help her.

    What I think may hurt her is her inability to disavow Trump, a dumb comment she made about him being a role model, and the fact that John Sununu has now endorsed Trump.
    I go by the numbers and what I can glean. I specifically look for trends, not only who's ahead, but has the gap closed or open up over the last month or two. Has this race been one leads in one poll and trails in the next. This one has been up and down. I do think Trump is hurting Ayotte, but by how much is hard to determine. I also think if Clinton can maintain a five point lead or more, that will be enough Hassan to sneak through.

    Then there is the Johnson factor, he is drawing 11% in NH, but from which candidate? Nationwide he seems to be hurting Clinton more than Trump, that is totally against conventional wisdom which states Libertarians tend to vote more Republican than Democratic on the national level. So many ifs, so just stay tuned in.
  10. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos
    The ads against Hassan are deservedly brutal for what happened at Exeter. Not because she did anything, but I guess it's fair game. And the anti-Ayotte ads saying she "voted with the Koch brothers 90% of the time" are just incredibly stupid, considering they don't vote in Congress.

    I'm already tired of the drug crisis ads and the ads with Ayotte's daughter and mother. I am going to vote for her though, no question. Are you in the 1st or 2nd CD?

    I down here in Georgia, not NH. The vast majority of voters have no idea who the Koch brothers are. Same for Soros. Those folks are for us political junkies to smear or be for. One thing that may help Republican Senate Nominees is a lot of the usual Republican mega donors, speaking of the Koch brothers, refused to donate to Trump and are putting their money in the congressional and senate elections.

    Trump has made too many enemies within the GOP to win. I am surprised he is as close as he is. He shouldn't be, but again no one outside of her supporters like Clinton either. The odds are against it, but it is possible for Clinton to win the White House by 5 or 6 points and still be saddled with a Republican House and Senate. The GOP will retain the house, that is almost a certainty. But at the beginning of the year the odds of the Democrats gaining at least 5 seats from the GOP to give them control with 51 seats, it was probably 90%. It looks like the Democrats will pick up Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Indiana from the Republicans. If the GOP can win in Nevada and hold onto NH and NC, they just might retain control even when Clinton wins.
  11. pilot16's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos
    The ads against Hassan are deservedly brutal for what happened at Exeter. Not because she did anything, but I guess it's fair game. And the anti-Ayotte ads saying she "voted with the Koch brothers 90% of the time" are just incredibly stupid, considering they don't vote in Congress.

    I'm already tired of the drug crisis ads and the ads with Ayotte's daughter and mother. I am going to vote for her though, no question. Are you in the 1st or 2nd CD?
    I am in the 2nd. Lawrence is a decent candidate, was surprised he won. Lots of interest around here in his campaign. As for Ayotte, she could pull it out its hard to say. A new poll out today from Suffolk has her up again. I always tell outsiders, that NH is the toughest state to predict because one has no idea which NH shows up on election day, will it be the establishment or libertarians or will it be the Bernie fans or those that escaped Massachusetts. lol There have been several elections where I felt it would go one way and completely went the other. I definitely see at least 4 distinct factions within the state and it all depends on who generates the most excitement.
  12. pilot16's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista
    I down here in Georgia, not NH. The vast majority of voters have no idea who the Koch brothers are. Same for Soros. Those folks are for us political junkies to smear or be for. One thing that may help Republican Senate Nominees is a lot of the usual Republican mega donors, speaking of the Koch brothers, refused to donate to Trump and are putting their money in the congressional and senate elections.

    Trump has made too many enemies within the GOP to win. I am surprised he is as close as he is. He shouldn't be, but again no one outside of her supporters like Clinton either. The odds are against it, but it is possible for Clinton to win the White House by 5 or 6 points and still be saddled with a Republican House and Senate. The GOP will retain the house, that is almost a certainty. But at the beginning of the year the odds of the Democrats gaining at least 5 seats from the GOP to give them control with 51 seats, it was probably 90%. It looks like the Democrats will pick up Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Indiana from the Republicans. If the GOP can win in Nevada and hold onto NH and NC, they just might retain control even when Clinton wins.

    Neat article just out from Politico about NH. Clinton only up by 2. Johnson way down to 5%.

    Poll: Presidential race tight in New Hampshire - POLITICO
  13. tres borrachos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    I am in the 2nd. Lawrence is a decent candidate, was surprised he won. Lots of interest around here in his campaign. As for Ayotte, she could pull it out its hard to say. A new poll out today from Suffolk has her up again. I always tell outsiders, that NH is the toughest state to predict because one has no idea which NH shows up on election day, will it be the establishment or libertarians or will it be the Bernie fans or those that escaped Massachusetts. lol There have been several elections where I felt it would go one way and completely went the other. I definitely see at least 4 distinct factions within the state and it all depends on who generates the most excitement.
    I'm in the 1st CD. I was a big Rich Ashooh supporter but will vote for Guinta over that moron Carol Shea-Porter. I met Jim Lawrence. Good man. Smart man. Annie Kuster, not a fan of hers.

    I think Johnson will do well here. I don't know what impact that will have on our other races but it should be a very interesting state to watch next month.
  14. pilot16's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    I am in the 2nd. Lawrence is a decent candidate, was surprised he won. Lots of interest around here in his campaign. As for Ayotte, she could pull it out its hard to say. A new poll out today from Suffolk has her up again. I always tell outsiders, that NH is the toughest state to predict because one has no idea which NH shows up on election day, will it be the establishment or libertarians or will it be the Bernie fans or those that escaped Massachusetts. lol There have been several elections where I felt it would go one way and completely went the other. I definitely see at least 4 distinct factions within the state and it all depends on who generates the most excitement.

    Trump and his success so far never fails to amaze me. Clinton really should be ahead by 30 points easy. I think Johnsons support is really making them nervous since many millennials seem to like him. NBC ran a story this morning with a focus group of millennials and they said out of 20, 9 were going third party, 3 for Clinton, 1 for Trump and the rest said they would sit it out. They came out for Obama in a big way and taking them out of the equation makes Clintons numbers drop. If there is a lack of excitement and low turnout he really could win this thing. As Nate Silver says, its doubtful but he can see scenarios where Johnson pulls high double digits in NH, CO and NM and could throw those states to Trump. Going to be fun to watch!
  15. tres borrachos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista
    I down here in Georgia, not NH. The vast majority of voters have no idea who the Koch brothers are. Same for Soros. Those folks are for us political junkies to smear or be for. One thing that may help Republican Senate Nominees is a lot of the usual Republican mega donors, speaking of the Koch brothers, refused to donate to Trump and are putting their money in the congressional and senate elections.

    Trump has made too many enemies within the GOP to win. I am surprised he is as close as he is. He shouldn't be, but again no one outside of her supporters like Clinton either. The odds are against it, but it is possible for Clinton to win the White House by 5 or 6 points and still be saddled with a Republican House and Senate. The GOP will retain the house, that is almost a certainty. But at the beginning of the year the odds of the Democrats gaining at least 5 seats from the GOP to give them control with 51 seats, it was probably 90%. It looks like the Democrats will pick up Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Indiana from the Republicans. If the GOP can win in Nevada and hold onto NH and NC, they just might retain control even when Clinton wins.
    Hey Pero, yes I know you're not in NH. Pilot, who I quoted, is a fellow Live Free or Die poster, like me.

    Yes it's funny to use the Koch brothers, as if your garden variety citizen has any clue who they are. They are not supporting Trump (something I respect them for) and yes they have been dumping $$ into the down ballot races.

    I hope if or when Clinton wins, the GOP does managed to hold the Senate. It's the only way to stop her craziness.
  16. pilot16's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    Trump and his success so far never fails to amaze me. Clinton really should be ahead by 30 points easy. I think Johnsons support is really making them nervous since many millennials seem to like him. NBC ran a story this morning with a focus group of millennials and they said out of 20, 9 were going third party, 3 for Clinton, 1 for Trump and the rest said they would sit it out. They came out for Obama in a big way and taking them out of the equation makes Clintons numbers drop. If there is a lack of excitement and low turnout he really could win this thing. As Nate Silver says, its doubtful but he can see scenarios where Johnson pulls high double digits in NH, CO and NM and could throw those states to Trump. Going to be fun to watch!
    Was surprised Ashooh didn't win. Worried Shea Porter could win again, she has been quite a disaster. I can live with Kuster but Shea Porter, ick. Hopefully Lawrence will surprise. I think Johnson could do better here as well especially with Weld as his running mate. 5 out of 5 in my household are voting for Johnson and we never get polled so who knows?
  17. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    Trump and his success so far never fails to amaze me. Clinton really should be ahead by 30 points easy. I think Johnsons support is really making them nervous since many millennials seem to like him. NBC ran a story this morning with a focus group of millennials and they said out of 20, 9 were going third party, 3 for Clinton, 1 for Trump and the rest said they would sit it out. They came out for Obama in a big way and taking them out of the equation makes Clintons numbers drop. If there is a lack of excitement and low turnout he really could win this thing. As Nate Silver says, its doubtful but he can see scenarios where Johnson pulls high double digits in NH, CO and NM and could throw those states to Trump. Going to be fun to watch!

    Being a numbers guy, I couldn't resist. I went to RCP and averaged out the numbers for this age group, 18-30 year olds which most of Sanders supporters came from

    It came out Clinton 40%, Trump 26%, Johnson 20%, Stein 10%.

    That's almost a third of this young age group voting third party. This age group, 18-30 Obama won back in 2012 61-38 over Romney. Trump is doing 12 points below Romney, but Clinton is 21 points behind Obama. Right here is one of the main reason this election is still close. As my grand daughter told me who has just started college this year, there is no way she would ever vote for Wall Street Clinton and she thinks Trump is a racist.

    Ah, the young idealist and Sander supporter. As an old fart there are times when I wonder if I was a young idealist 50 years or so ago.
  18. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos
    I'm in the 1st CD. I was a big Rich Ashooh supporter but will vote for Guinta over that moron Carol Shea-Porter. I met Jim Lawrence. Good man. Smart man. Annie Kuster, not a fan of hers.

    I think Johnson will do well here. I don't know what impact that will have on our other races but it should be a very interesting state to watch next month.

    I tend to go by RCP averages. Then check around to see if there are more polls to go on besides the one's they list. Over time I have found out the average of recent polls are more accurate than just going by one.

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson

    GBA's poll is not listed on RCP in which Clinton leads 46-40 taken 25-27 Sep. Toss out the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll as it is too old, not within the last couple of weeks. Monmouth, one could keep it or toss it since it finished it polling on the 20th. That would still leave three counting the GBA poll which isn't listed on RCP. Clinton's leads of 7 and 2 with the remain polls on RCP, add the 6 from GBA that's 15, Clinton's average lead is 5.

    Now the most recent poll, the Boston Globe one which shows Clinton up by only two, could very well be right catching a trend that is just beginning, but then again, maybe not. Also the Boston Globe poll had a MOE of 4.4 points, so going by just that one poll, the Globe is telling us there is a 95% change that Clinton is somewhere between 39.6 to 48.4 and Trump at someplace between 37.6 and 46.4. Anywhere within those ranges would make the poll accurate. Averaging reduces the MOE to around two points instead of the 4.4
  19. pilot16's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista
    Being a numbers guy, I couldn't resist. I went to RCP and averaged out the numbers for this age group, 18-30 year olds which most of Sanders supporters came from

    It came out Clinton 40%, Trump 26%, Johnson 20%, Stein 10%.

    That's almost a third of this young age group voting third party. This age group, 18-30 Obama won back in 2012 61-38 over Romney. Trump is doing 12 points below Romney, but Clinton is 21 points behind Obama. Right here is one of the main reason this election is still close. As my grand daughter told me who has just started college this year, there is no way she would ever vote for Wall Street Clinton and she thinks Trump is a racist.

    Ah, the young idealist and Sander supporter. As an old fart there are times when I wonder if I was a young idealist 50 years or so ago.
    I think what will make that number even worse is how many millennials will stay home not choosing anyone? If you recall the excitement over Pres Obama in 2008 was tremendous. My oldest was in college during that time and they had all night parties celebrating. No such thing is going to happen this time around. I also will be curious to see what percent of minorities comes out to vote. Will they go back to previous election numbers? I doubt we will see Obama numbers there either. Elections where people are voting against people and not for them tend to suffer from low turnout.
  20. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    I think what will make that number even worse is how many millennials will stay home not choosing anyone? If you recall the excitement over Pres Obama in 2008 was tremendous. My oldest was in college during that time and they had all night parties celebrating. No such thing is going to happen this time around. I also will be curious to see what percent of minorities comes out to vote. Will they go back to previous election numbers? I doubt we will see Obama numbers there either. Elections where people are voting against people and not for them tend to suffer from low turnout.
    Yeah. Pundits or those who guess at the turn out are of two camps. That the dislike of both candidates will cause a lot of folks to stay home and turnout will be between 45-48%. Then others say the dislike of the two candidates are so high, that folks will go to the polls in droves to vote against one or the other candidate and turnout will be 55-58%. In other words, hate drives people to the polls.

    I have sided on the low turnout side of things. I think you're right about the young, 18-30 year olds not having a candidate they like they will stay home. None are excited about Hillary Clinton, old Mrs. Wall Street herself. The young were all excited about Sanders and he would have had most of them turn out. Although those who view Trump as a Racist may vote for their lesser of two evil candidates even if that candidate has Wall Street in her hip pocket.

    Then there are the third party voters. They aren't excited about either Johnson or Stein. Their support is real soft. They just don't want to vote for either Trump or Clinton, detesting both major party candidates. Chances are high that a lot of these third party supporters decide not to vote at all. It is not unusual to see a third party candidate getting 8-10 in the polls right prior to the election, then the third party candidate ends up with 4-5%. Their candidate can't win, so why go to the polls just to register a protest vote.

    So I am more on the side of low turn out, probably the lowest since 1996 when only 49.1% of eligible voters turned out. You have to go back to 1924 to get a lower turn out, it was 48.9% that year. That is the record for the lowest turn out ever. So a 45-48% would break that record. Disgust for both candidates. No one to be for, just against.
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