PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST 1 October 2016
by, 10-01-16 at 07:36 AM (2385 Views)
PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST 1 October 2016
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 24 Republican seats up for re-election vs. 10 for the Democrats.
Safe Democratic seats 9: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington.
The Democrats have only one at risk seat this election cycle, Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (14): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah.
The Republicans have 10 at risks seats this election cycle, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Arizona McCain R – McCain has opened up a double digit lead over Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick in two September polls by NBC/WSJ and Insight West. What is interesting is Trump has only a two-point lead over Clinton here while McCain is averaging a 12-point lead in retaining his senate seat. Republican hold R 54 D 46.
Florida Rubio R – There has been nine polls conducted in Florida in September, Senator Rubio is averaging a six-point lead over Democrat Patrick Murphy. In Florida Rubio is ahead by six, Trump trails Clinton by one. Republican hold. R 54 D 46
Illinois Kirk R – Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth is ahead of the incumbent Kirk by an average of four points. I’m surprised the race is still this close, but I expect Duckworth will be increasing her lead as the election nears. Democratic gain R 53 D 47
Indiana – Coats R – Democrat Evan Bayh’s lead has shrunk from seven points last month to four this month over Republican Todd Young. Perhaps it is not surprising considering Trump has a seven-point lead and his VP Pence is from Indiana. But both Evan Bayh and his father Birch Bayh have been very popular in Indiana. Both had served as a senator from that state. I’m going with Bayh. Democratic gain R 52 D 48
Missouri Blount R – Incumbent Blount lead has shrunk to two-points over Democratic challenger Jason Kander. It was seven last month. Nonetheless, I’m sticking with Blount. Republican Hold R 52 D 48
Nevada Reid D – There has been eight polls of this senate race during September. Averaging them out gives Republican Joe Heck a four-point advantage over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for Reid’s seat. The Democrat led by two last month. With six of the eight polls showing Heck ahead, I am switching Nevada from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain R 53 D 47
New Hampshire Ayotte R – New Hampshire has been polled five times in September. Democrat Hassan led in two, Republican Ayotte in three. This race is really too close to call. But with Clinton up by six over Trump, democratic coat tails will pull Hanson to the win. Democratic gain R 52 D 48
North Carolina Burr R – With eleven polls conducted in September, his race is one of the most polled and the closest one when averaging all eleven polls together. Democrat Deborah Ross holds a slim one-point lead over incumbent Burr. The presidential race is just as close, so no coat tails to help either candidate. I’m sticking with the incumbent Burr. Republican hold R 52 D 48
Ohio Portman R – Incumbent Republican Portman holds a double digit lead over Democrat Ted Strickland. No contest and thoughts of placing Ohio into the safe Republican category. Republican hold R 52 D 48
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Democrat McGinty retains her four-point lead in seven polls this month over incumbent Toomey. That is the same lead she had last month. Democratic Gain R 51 D 49
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold maintains his ten point lead this month, same as last month. Democratic Gain R 50 D 50
This month I changed Nevada from a Democratic hold to a Republican gain which gives us a 50-50 split in the senate. That is if the Republicans can hold onto North Carolina, if not the senate will go Democratic. The reverse is true for New Hampshire and the Democrats, if the Democrats fail to take New Hampshire, the Republicans will maintain control of the senate if they keep North Carolina. Whichever party wins the White House will likely control the senate with the Vice President casting the tie breaking votes.
House of Representatives
This last month brought big changes to the House scene. Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. This month the Republicans have 32 seats at risk to 8 for the Democrats. Last month the numbers were 33 for the GOP and 7 for the Democrats. The Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take over control of the House. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats will pick up 13 of the GOP’s at risk seats, down from 20 last month. The Republicans will pick up one of the eight Democratic at risk seats giving the Democrats a net gain of 12. That is 7 less seats than last month. The new House will have 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats.
I use party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, the two major party’s nominees along with the Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Here are this month’s results.
Last month had Clinton at 42.5%, Trump 35.7%, Johnson 9.7% and Stein 4.3% with almost 8% of the electorate undecided. This month Clinton is at 44.2%, a slight rise of 1.7 points. Trump comes in at 41.9%, a significant rise of 6.2 points. Johnson fell to 8.1% and Stein to 2.3% as it seems some third party voters in the past are making a choice between the two major party candidates instead. Undecideds fell to just 3.5%. That’s not a lot of wiggle room for Trump among the undecideds to gain on Clinton. Somehow to be successful, Trump will have to figure out a way to attract more Johnson voters and bring some disgruntled anti or never Trump Republicans back into the fold. It needs to be noted last month’s party affiliation numbers were taken right after the Democratic convention and may have skewed some numbers in Clinton’s favor. Some interesting numbers show 20% of all independents are still voting for a third party candidate, down from 28% last month. Also last month independents were going for Trump 35-34, this month Trump increased his advantage among independents to 42-35 which was one cause for Trump’s 6.2-point rise along with 1.6% drop among Johnson voters moving aboard the Trump train. Clinton’s slight rise was due to Stein voter’s returning to the Democratic fold. Compare these number to 2012 when Romney won the independent vote 51-45 over Obama. Both major party candidates are running ten points behind the total run up by their party’s candidates in 2012 among independents.
On the Electoral College side, 270 electoral votes needed to win. In states where either Trump or Clinton have at least a 5-point lead or more, Clinton leads 262 to 182, last month it was Clinton 266-145. Clinton is within four electoral votes of a win in these safe or likely Democratic states. Adding the states where one or the other candidate leads by three or four points, the count goes to Clinton 262, Trump 199. Last month’s count, Clinton 335, Trump 154. This leaves the states of Colorado and Florida where Clinton leads by a single point. The state of Nevada where Trump leads by one, Ohio where Trump is up by two and North Carolina where Clinton is up by two. A win in one of these five states will give Clinton the presidency. Colorado and Nevada given their voting history will probably go to Clinton, Ohio to Trump giving us an electoral count of 277-217 regardless of how Florida and North Carolina goes. Since Clinton has lead in the two post-debate polls in Florida, I am giving her that state. I am also giving Trump North Carolina than for no other reason that is what my gut is telling me. The final tally for 1 October is Clinton 306, Trump 232.
2016 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
March Electoral vote R 200 D 338
April Electoral vote R 200 D 338
May Electoral vote R 206 D 332
June Electoral vote R 235 D 303
July Electoral vote R 185 D 353
August Electoral vote R 209 D 329
August II Electoral vote R 191 D 347
October Electoral vote R 232 D 306
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