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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST August 2016 Number II

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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST August 2016 Number II

With the new party affiliation/identification figures out yesterday, I decided to post this now instead of waiting until 1 September. I will post an update in September as soon as the numbers for that month become available.

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 24 Republican seats up for re-election vs. 10 for the Democrats.

Safe Democratic seats 9: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington.

The Democrats have only one at risk seat this election cycle, Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (14): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah.

The Republicans have 10 at risks seats this election cycle, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Arizona McCain R – There has been no new polling between Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick and incumbent McCain. The last poll showed McCain ahead by two, but that was done in June. So I am running blind here. I will stick with McCain winning. Republican hold R 54 D 46.

Florida Rubio R – Senator Rubio has a six-point lead over Democrat Murphy and an 11-point lead over Grayson. The Democratic primary will be held on 28 August to determine which one challenges What is interesting is Clinton is currently four points ahead of Trump in Florida while Rubio leads both of his Democratic challengers. Republican hold. R 54 D 46

Illinois Kirk R – Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth has pulled ahead of Kirk by seven in August. Last month her lead was but two, then I stated as the election nears Duckworth would increase her lead. She has done so. Democratic gain R 53 D 47

Indiana – Coats R – Challenger Democrat Evan Bayh has moved out to a seven-point advantage over Republican Todd Young 48-41. This in a state where Trump has a ten-point lead and his VP Pence is from Indiana. Evan Bayh and his father Birch Bayh have been very popular in Indiana. Both had served as a senator from that state. I am changing Indiana from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain R 52 D 48

Iowa Grassley R - I added Iowa to my watch list two months ago. But with five August polls showing Grassley ahead by an average of nine points, I am taking Iowa off my watch list. Republican Hold R 52 D 48

Missouri Blount R – Incumbent Blount has pulled out to a six-point lead over Democratic challenger Jason Kander in both August polls. Last month Blunt lead by three. Republican Hold R 52 D 48

Nevada Reid D – Republican Joe Heck lost his two-point advantage over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for Reid’s seat. They are now tied at 37 each with the rest in the undecided column. Clinton holds a slight two-point lead over Trump, so no help there. But with Nevada’s history I am going with the Democrat to win. Democratic hold. R 52 D 48

New Hampshire Ayotte R – Democrat Hassan lead is down to one in New Hampshire. But Clinton is up by ten. Can anyone spell coat tails. Democratic gain R 51 D 49

North Carolina Burr R – Burr’s one commanding seven-point lead over Democrat Deborah Ross is now down to a single point. It seems momentum is on Ross’s side. But I am going against that and sticking with Burr. Republican hold R 51 D 49

Ohio Portman R – Incumbent Republican Portman has increased his lead over Democrat Ted Strickland this month from two points to seven. Enough said. Republican hold R 51 D 49

Pennsylvania Toomey R – McGinty lead has dropped from six to four from last month. But with Clinton up by nine, nothing to worry about. Coat tails once more will carry McGinty to victory. Democratic Gain R 50 D 50

Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold has increased his lead of incumbent Johnson from six to ten in August. The wind is at Feingold’s back. Democratic Gain R 49 D 51

This month I changed Indiana from a Republican hold to a Democratic gain. I will deleted Iowa from my watch list and placed it back into the safe Republican column. Indiana going Democratic will give them control of the senate 51-49. The game changer goes by the name of Evan Bayh. His entry into Indiana’s senate race off sets Rubio coming back in Florida for the Republicans.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 33 seats at risk to 7 for the Democrats, no change from last month. The Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take over control of the House. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats will pick up 20 of the GOP’s 33 at risk seats while losing one of their own. That is a net gain of 19 seats which is two more than last month. The new House will have 228 Republicans to 207 Democrats.

Presidential Election

I use party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, the two major parties nominees along with the Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Here are this month’s results.


Big change afoot. Last month had Clinton 40.7, Trump 40.8, Johnson 12.2, Stein 5.1. This month’s numbers are Clinton 42.5, Trump 35.7, Johnson 9.7 and Stein 4.3 with almost 8% of the electorate undecided. It must be noted that only 2% of the electorate were undecided last month, the rise to 8% shows this election is very much in flux. It seems most of those who left Trump went into the undecided column. Clinton gained from Johnson and Stein’s loss of support. All candidates took a hit with the exception of Clinton who rose 1.8 points. Trump lost 5.1 points, but last month’s figure probably contained his convention bounce, which wasn’t there for Clinton. With the conventions long gone, we are now in a more normal period and what bounces obtained from the conventions gone. Johnson shrank 2.5 points and Stein dropped 0.8. There has been a ton of news about Trump and Clinton, almost all bad over the last month with Trump getting the worst of it. One reason for the rise of Clinton is she is getting 88% of the Democratic base vote which makes up 31% of the electorate. Trump is receiving only 81% of the Republican base vote which makes up 27% of the electorate. Independents this month is split right down the middle, independents are giving Trump 35%, Clinton 34%, Johnson 19% and Stein 9%. Last month among independents and independents only it was Trump 33%, Clinton 33%, Johnson 21%, Stein 10%. With the drop of support among independents for Johnson and Stein, they may be beginning to make their hold your nose and choose the lesser of two evils between Trump and Clinton. There will probably be more movement along these lines as the election nears. The question remains as to which candidate, Trump or Clinton will be seen as the least worst candidate.



On the Electoral College side, 270 electoral votes needed to win. In states where either Trump or Clinton have at least a 5-point lead or more, Clinton leads 266 to 145. Clinton’s number is the same as last month, although Trump dropped 30 electoral votes from 175. Adding the states where one or the other candidate leads by three or four points, the count goes to Clinton 335, Trump 154. Last month’s count was 287 Clinton, 191 Trump. This leaves the states of Arizona, tied, Georgia of all states, also tied along with Iowa being tied. Trump leads by two in Missouri, Clinton by two in Nevada. Regardless of how these states go, Hillary has 335 electoral votes. More than enough to win and win the electoral college easily. Missouri where Trump leads by two will stay with him, Nevada where Clinton leads by 2, will go to her bring the count to Clinton 341, Trump 164. With the three tied states, I look for Trump to prevail in Arizona and Georgia, which Clinton to take the lone blue state of the prairie, Iowa. The finally tally for this month is Clinton 347, Trump 191.

2016 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
March Electoral vote R 200 D 338
April Electoral vote R 200 D 338
May Electoral vote R 206 D 332
June Electoral vote R 235 D 303
July Electoral vote R 185 D 353
August Electoral vote R 209 D 329
September Electoral vote R 191 D 347
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Comments

  1. tres borrachos's Avatar
    Always a great read, Pero. Thank you!
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos
    Always a great read, Pero. Thank you!
    This is a labor of love. I have more fun in compiling the information and making the prediction based solely on the numbers presented.

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