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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST August 2016

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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST August 2016

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate. This month I am adding Indiana and Missouri to the at risk seats for the Republicans. I am also removing Colorado from the Democratic at risk seats.

Safe Democratic seats 9: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington.

The Democrats have only one at risk seat this election cycle, Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (13): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah.

The Republicans have 11 at risks seats this election cycle, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Arizona McCain R – Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick has pulled within two points of incumbent McCain. That is within the margin of error of both polls showing McCain ahead. In other words, this is a dead even race. Even so I am sticking with the incumbent. Republican hold R 54 D 46.

Colorado Bennet D – Bennet has a double digit lead over Republican Darryl Glenn. With that type of lead I am removing Colorado from the Democratic at risk column and placing it into the safe Democratic seats. Democratic Hold R 54 D 46

Florida Rubio R – Senator Rubio has announced he will seek his currently held senate seat. The Democratic primary to determine his opponent will not take place until 30 August. Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy are basically neck and neck. However, in the latest poll Rubio leads Grayson by 8 points and Murphy by 7 in head to head matchups. With Rubio back in the race, I am changing Florida from a Democratic pick up to a Republican hold. R 54 D 46

Illinois Kirk R – In the latest poll the incumbent Kirk has pulled ahead of his Democratic Challenger Tammy Duckworth 42-40 with 18% undecided. Nevertheless, I am sticking with the Democratic Challenger Duckworth to win. Illinois is way too blue for Kirk to pull this off in a presidential election year. Democratic gain R 53 D 47

Indiana – Coats R – I’m adding Indiana to my watch list since Evan Bayh decided to enter the race on the Democratic side. The only poll available which pits Republican Todd Young trying to retain the Retiring Coats seat vs Democrat Evan Bayh was conducted by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in which they show Bayh ahead 54-33. I don’t believe it one bit. My feeling on this race is that Republican Young is slightly ahead, although there are no numbers to back that up. I am going with my gut, Republican hold R 53 D 47

Iowa Grassley R - I added Iowa to my watch list last month. But three July polls show Grassley ahead of Democrat Patti Judge by an average of 9 points. If future polls continue to show this type of lead for Grassley, Iowa won’t remain on my list for long. Republican Hold R 53 D 47

Missouri Blount R – Missouri deserves to be added to my watch list. Republican Blount leads his Democratic challenger Jason Kander 41-38. But Missouri is too red a state for Kander to pull off the upset. Trump is leading in Missouri by ten points and if he maintains that margin he can only help Blount. Republican Hold R 53 D 47

Nevada Reid D – Republican Joe Heck has a slight two-point advantage over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for Reid’s seat. But with Nevada’s history I am going with the Democrat to win. Democratic hold. R 53 D 47

New Hampshire Ayotte R – Democrat Hassan has a three-point lead in the July polls over Ayotte. Good enough for me. Democratic gain R 52 D 48

North Carolina Burr R – Burr’s led over Democrat Deborah Ross is now 7 points with only 10% undecided. Republican hold R 52 D 48

Ohio Portman R – In four July polls Republican Portman has an average of a two-point lead over Democrat Ted Strickland. But all four polls are within the margin of error which makes this race a dead heat. In the presidential race, it also is tied. But I see a slight trend in Portman’s favor which means I am changing Ohio from a Democratic pick up to a Republican hold R 52 D 48

Pennsylvania Toomey R – With Clinton moving out to a 9 point lead in Pennsylvania, her coat tails have given Democrat Katie McGinty the lead in the polls. McGinty now leads Toomey by an average of six points in the July polls. Considering Pennsylvania voting history, I am not surprised one bit. I am changing Pennsylvania from a Republican hold to a Democratic Gain R 51 D 49

Wisconsin Johnson R – Republican Johnson has cut Democrat Russ Feingold’s lead from 13 to six in July. Not good enough for me to change Wisconsin’s rating. That state is still a Democratic gain R 50 D 50

This month I added Indiana and Missouri, deleted Colorado from my watch list. I also switched Florida and Ohio from being a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. On the flip side, Pennsylvania goes to a Democratic gain instead of a Republican hold. All these changing leaves the senate in a 50-50 tie. So whichever party wins the White House will also control the senate as the Vice President has the deciding tie breaking vote.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 33 seats at risk to 7 for the Democrats which is the same as last month. The Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take over control of the House. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats will pick up 18 of the GOP’s 33 at risk seats while losing one of their own. That is a net gain of 17 seats which is the same as last month. The new House will have 230 Republicans to 205 Democrats.

Presidential Election

I use party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, the two major parties nominees along with the Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Here are this month’s results.


The race has tightened. Last month had Clinton at 46.6%, Trump at 40.0%, Johnson 7.7% and Stein at 4.4%. That was a 6.6-point lead for Hillary which was approaching landslide proportions. This month the totals are Clinton 42.8 a drop of 3.8 points. Trump comes in at 40.8%, an increase of only 0.8 of a point. Johnson rose to 11.2% and Stein dropped to 4.1%. The biggest factor in Hillary Clinton’s drop was the Democratic party base affiliation dropped from 31% of the total electorate to 28% while the Republican base rose from 27% to 28%. Johnson rise can be attributed to him receiving 21% of the independent vote which makes up 42% of the electorate. Johnson drew evenly from both the Republican and Democratic base at 6%. Stein is getting 10% of the independent vote, which together with Johnson shows 31% of all independents voting third party. Trump and Clinton split the remainder of the independent vote. But this does show the dissatisfaction of independents with both major party nominees. Do I expect Johnson and Stein to continue their strong showings with independents through election day? I do not. Which way these independents will swing in November remains to be seen.


On the Electoral College side, 270 electoral votes needed to win. In states where either Trump or Clinton have at least a 5-point lead or more, they add up to Clinton 268, Trump 175. Last month the count was Clinton 316, Trump 158. Adding the states where one or the other candidate leads by two to four points, the count goes to Clinton 287, Trump 191. This leaves the states of Florida where Trump and Clinton are tied, Ohio where Clinton leads by 1, Iowa where Trump is ahead by 1, Nevada which they are tied and the second congressional district of Maine where Trump leads by one. But regardless of how these close swing states go, Hillary has 287 electoral votes which is enough to win. With Iowa and Nevada being so close, I will go by their voting history and award them this month to Clinton along with Maine’s second congressional district making the count Clinton 300, Trump 191 with Ohio and Florida to go. For no other reason than Clinton leads Trump in the last poll taken in Florida, I’ll give her that state and for the same reason Trump leads in the last poll taken in Ohio, I’ll give The Donald Ohio. Final electoral vote count for August is Clinton 329, Trump 209.

2016 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
March Electoral vote R 200 D 338
April Electoral vote R 200 D 338
May Electoral vote R 206 D 332
June Electoral vote R 235 D 303
July Electoral vote R 185 D 353
August Electoral vote R 209 D 329
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Comments

  1. CanadaJohn's Avatar
    Good morning Pero,

    Thanks for your analysis again. I have to say, I think you're stretching a little when you, in almost every case, give the Democrat the benefit of the doubt in tough or open races. I have no data to back it up, but my gut feeling is that a struggling Trump makes the Republican Senate races easier to win, not harder. Firstly, if Trump starts to tank, that will dampen Clinton turnout, not increase it, presuming she has any coattails, which I don't. But secondly, and perhaps more importantly, with the strong distrust of Clinton on the right and with independents in the two latest polls from CNN and FOX trending more to Trump than Clinton, even though Clinton is picking up 12% of Republicans to Trump picking up 5% of Democrats, that in total leads me to believe that Republicans and Independents will support the Republican Senate candidates to ensure a tight leash on a President Clinton. Republicans who may vote for Clinton will not support Democrats for the Senate - they will take the lesser of two evils in the Presidential race, but will temper than choice with a balancing force in the Senate.

    Have fun and enjoy your summer!!
  2. polgara's Avatar
    Greetings, CJ.

    Dick Morris, a political commentator who worked with Bill Clinton during his term of office, had a most interesting take on the Clinton-Trump race a while back.

    Basically he said that Trump needs to show himself ASAP as being "presidential" and worthy of trust, while Hillary will be trying to hide from all the scandals and "almost indictments" that she has garnered over the years. Morris maintains that this isn't the real Hillary that is running, but one who is desperately trying to be all things to all people.....

    1) the first woman to run for President
    2) the pro-gun control candidate;
    3) the global warming candidate;
    4) the equal pay for women candidate;
    5) the gay rights candidate.... etc

    I don't know if Morris is correct in his evaluation, but it was thought-provoking to hear!
  3. polgara's Avatar
    Greetings, CJ.

    Dick Morris, a political commentator who worked with Bill Clinton during his term of office, had a most interesting take on the Clinton-Trump race a while back.

    Basically he said that Trump needs to show himself ASAP as being "presidential" and worthy of trust, while Hillary will be trying to hide from all the scandals and "almost indictments" that she has garnered over the years. Morris maintains that this isn't the real Hillary that is running, but one who is desperately trying to be all things to all people, or she won't make it.....

    1) the first woman to run for President
    2) the pro-gun control candidate;
    3) the global warming candidate;
    4) the equal pay for women candidate;
    5) the gay rights candidate.... etc

    I don't know if Morris is correct in his evaluation, but it was thought-provoking to hear![/QUOTE]
  4. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn
    Good morning Pero,

    Thanks for your analysis again. I have to say, I think you're stretching a little when you, in almost every case, give the Democrat the benefit of the doubt in tough or open races. I have no data to back it up, but my gut feeling is that a struggling Trump makes the Republican Senate races easier to win, not harder. Firstly, if Trump starts to tank, that will dampen Clinton turnout, not increase it, presuming she has any coattails, which I don't. But secondly, and perhaps more importantly, with the strong distrust of Clinton on the right and with independents in the two latest polls from CNN and FOX trending more to Trump than Clinton, even though Clinton is picking up 12% of Republicans to Trump picking up 5% of Democrats, that in total leads me to believe that Republicans and Independents will support the Republican Senate candidates to ensure a tight leash on a President Clinton. Republicans who may vote for Clinton will not support Democrats for the Senate - they will take the lesser of two evils in the Presidential race, but will temper than choice with a balancing force in the Senate.

    Have fun and enjoy your summer!!
    CJ, I didn't notice that. I just utilized the number available and in close races add historical data. One has to remember the GOP has 24 seats up to just 10 for the Democrats. The numbers were on the Democratic side from the beginning.

    I am sure the national race will impact some senate races, especially in traditional blue states such as Pennsylvania, Illinois etc., where they have a Republican senator. One also has to remember in a presidential year, Democrats turn out, not so for the mid terms. There are several states where Republicans won in their 2010 landslide they had no business winning. These are the ones that will return to their normal political base.
  5. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by polgara
    Greetings, CJ.

    Dick Morris, a political commentator who worked with Bill Clinton during his term of office, had a most interesting take on the Clinton-Trump race a while back.

    Basically he said that Trump needs to show himself ASAP as being "presidential" and worthy of trust, while Hillary will be trying to hide from all the scandals and "almost indictments" that she has garnered over the years. Morris maintains that this isn't the real Hillary that is running, but one who is desperately trying to be all things to all people.....

    1) the first woman to run for President
    2) the pro-gun control candidate;
    3) the global warming candidate;
    4) the equal pay for women candidate;
    5) the gay rights candidate.... etc

    I don't know if Morris is correct in his evaluation, but it was thought-provoking to hear!
    I don't know if Morris is right or wrong. But Hillary is pulling away fairly fast these days. Trump's problem lies both with lifelong conservatives in the Republican Party who believe he isn't and with independents who have this image of a 5th grade schoolyard bully and as an 8 year old name caller whose parents failed to teach him manners. Then to there is the impression that Trump has been running for a reality TV show host rather than president of the USA.

    Most independents do not like Clinton, but Trump's obnoxious behavior and his wild accusations here lately has really drove up his unfavorables among indies. He is on the verge of losing them if he doesn't change his act soon.

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