PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST July 2016
by, 07-05-16 at 07:01 PM (1407 Views)
PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST July 2016
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate. This month I am adding Iowa to the at risk seats for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (15): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have nine at risks seats this election cycle, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Arizona McCain R – In two late June polls McCain leads Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick by an average of 5 points. There are 25% of the voters undecided. Which means this race could go either way. I’m sticking with the incumbent McCain to pull it out. Republican hold 54-46.
Colorado Bennet D – Darryl Glenn, a Tea Party favorite won the Republican Primary with 37% of the vote. But so far there has been no polls done between Glenn and Democratic Incumbent Bennet. Even so, I think it is only the margin to be tablulated in November that remains in doubt. Bennet wins. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D
Florida Rubio R – Senator Rubio has announced he will seek his currently held senate seat. With the exception of Carlos Beruff, a businessman, the other Republicans have withdrawn. The Republican primary is on August 30th, Rubio should have little trouble in dispatching Beruff. On the Democratic side Murphy leads Grayson 30-21 with Keith at 10%. In three June polls Rubio and Murphy are tied, against Grayson Rubio leads by an average of 4 points. Rubio will run as the anti-Trump and anti-Clinton senate candidate. I’m not sure that is a good idea. But when Clinton leads Trump by 6 points in Florida, that tightrope may be Rubio’s best chance. Regardless, I am leaving Florida as a Democratic pickup. Democratic gain. 53 R 47 D
Illinois Kirk R – There has been no new polling results between Democrat Tammy Duckworth and incumbent Kirk. The last poll was done more than two months ago which showed Duckworth holding a slim 3-point lead over Kirk. I think she has doubled that lead by now. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D
Iowa Grassley R – I added Iowa this month as Grassley is in Trouble. In three June polls Grassley has only an average of a 5-point lead over Patti Judge. This race bears close watching as Judge is catching fire. With only 11% of the voters undecided, Judge would have to win 2/3rds of them to catch and overtake Grassley. Very possible in this blue state. But I doubt it. Grassley wins. Republican Hold 52 R 48 D
Nevada Reid D – It’s Republican Joe Heck vs. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for Reid’s seat. With both primaries just over there hasn’t been any polling done pitting these two against each other. I am sticking with Nevada being a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – In three June polls Democrat Hassan led in two and Ayotte in one. All polls were within the margin of error. You can’t get any closer than this race now. But I am still going with Democrat Hassan to win. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D
North Carolina Burr R – Burr’s led over Democrat Deborah Ross is now 3 points. Libertarian Haugh has dropped to 5%. But with 18% still undecided, this race could go either way. I am still sticking with Burr to pull it out. Republican hold 51 R 49 D.
Ohio Portman R – Two late June polls show this race as a dead heat. Incumbent Portman and Democratic challenger Ted Strickland tied at 42 apiece. Whichever presidential candidate wins Ohio, this race will probably go the same way. At the moment Clinton leads Trump giving Strickland the advantage. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Incumbent Toomey has increased his lead over Democrat Katie McGinty to an average of 5-points in three June polls. Last month Toomey’s lead was 3. Toomey has this lead even though Clinton leads Trump by 4 points here and last month they were tied. This is a head scratcher. One Democratic candidate, Clinton takes a good lead and the other, McGinty drops further behind. Sounds like a bunch of ticket splitters to me. Toomey will pull this out, Pennsylvania changes from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. 50 R 50 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold leads Republican incumbent Johnson by 13 points with only 13% of the electorate undecided. Enough said. Democratic gain 49 R 51 D
This month I added Iowa to my watch list and changed Pennsylvania from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. The Democrats will control the senate by a 51-49 margin.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans now have 33 seats at risk to 7 for the Democrats which is the same as last month. The Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take over control of the House. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats will pick up 18 of the GOP’s 33 at risk seats while losing one of their own. That is a net gain of 17 seats which is one less than last month. The new House will have 230 Republicans to 205 Democrats.
I use party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, the two major parties nominees along with the Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Here are this month’s results.
I’m back to running just one model as the percentages were about the same in both the 55% and 45% voter turnout models. Last month had Clinton winning the popular vote 45.0 to Trump’s 40.9 with Johnson at 9.8 and Stein at 2.3. This month Clinton has 46.6% an increase of 1.6 points. Trump decreased to 40.0% a drop of nine tenths of a single point. Johnson is at 7.7%, he also dropped by 2.1 points and Stein at 4.4%. An increase of 2.1 points. Still a combined 12% of the vote for the Libertarian and Green Party candidates is unheard of or ever seen before. It shows the total dissatisfaction of the voters in having to choose between Trump and Clinton. Another reason I decided to stick with my tried and true model instead of two different ones is those who have responded with “Will not vote,” decreased from 18% down to 8%.
On the Electoral College side, 270 electoral votes needed to win. In states where either Trump or Clinton have at least a 5-point lead or more, they add up to Clinton 316, Trump 158. Adding the states where one or the other candidate leads by two to four points, the count goes to Clinton 338, Trump 164. This leaves only the state of Colorado where Clinton leads by 1, Nevada which is tied and Arizona where Trump leads by one. For your information states won by Romney in 2012 where Trump is in trouble are: Arizona where Trump leads by one, Georgia, Trump ahead by 4, Kansas where surprisingly Clinton leads by 7 and the swing state of North Carolina where Clinton leads by 6. Romney Received a total of 206 electoral votes. Obama won states that Clinton is in trouble are Nevada, tied. New Hampshire and Colorado where Clinton leads by one and Ohio where she leads by two. Obama received 332 electoral votes. Of the remaining three states I am giving Clinton New Hampshire and Nevada and Trump Arizona making the final electoral count for July as Clinton 353, Trump 185.
2016 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
March Electoral vote R 200 D 338
April Electoral vote R 200 D 338
May Electoral vote R 206 D 332
June Electoral vote R 235 D 303
July Electoral vote R 185 D 353
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