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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST July 2016

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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST July 2016

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate. This month I am adding Iowa to the at risk seats for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (15): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have nine at risks seats this election cycle, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Arizona McCain R – In two late June polls McCain leads Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick by an average of 5 points. There are 25% of the voters undecided. Which means this race could go either way. I’m sticking with the incumbent McCain to pull it out. Republican hold 54-46.

Colorado Bennet D – Darryl Glenn, a Tea Party favorite won the Republican Primary with 37% of the vote. But so far there has been no polls done between Glenn and Democratic Incumbent Bennet. Even so, I think it is only the margin to be tablulated in November that remains in doubt. Bennet wins. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D

Florida Rubio R – Senator Rubio has announced he will seek his currently held senate seat. With the exception of Carlos Beruff, a businessman, the other Republicans have withdrawn. The Republican primary is on August 30th, Rubio should have little trouble in dispatching Beruff. On the Democratic side Murphy leads Grayson 30-21 with Keith at 10%. In three June polls Rubio and Murphy are tied, against Grayson Rubio leads by an average of 4 points. Rubio will run as the anti-Trump and anti-Clinton senate candidate. I’m not sure that is a good idea. But when Clinton leads Trump by 6 points in Florida, that tightrope may be Rubio’s best chance. Regardless, I am leaving Florida as a Democratic pickup. Democratic gain. 53 R 47 D

Illinois Kirk R – There has been no new polling results between Democrat Tammy Duckworth and incumbent Kirk. The last poll was done more than two months ago which showed Duckworth holding a slim 3-point lead over Kirk. I think she has doubled that lead by now. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D

Iowa Grassley R – I added Iowa this month as Grassley is in Trouble. In three June polls Grassley has only an average of a 5-point lead over Patti Judge. This race bears close watching as Judge is catching fire. With only 11% of the voters undecided, Judge would have to win 2/3rds of them to catch and overtake Grassley. Very possible in this blue state. But I doubt it. Grassley wins. Republican Hold 52 R 48 D

Nevada Reid D – It’s Republican Joe Heck vs. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for Reid’s seat. With both primaries just over there hasn’t been any polling done pitting these two against each other. I am sticking with Nevada being a Democratic hold. 52 R 48 D

New Hampshire Ayotte R – In three June polls Democrat Hassan led in two and Ayotte in one. All polls were within the margin of error. You can’t get any closer than this race now. But I am still going with Democrat Hassan to win. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D

North Carolina Burr R – Burr’s led over Democrat Deborah Ross is now 3 points. Libertarian Haugh has dropped to 5%. But with 18% still undecided, this race could go either way. I am still sticking with Burr to pull it out. Republican hold 51 R 49 D.

Ohio Portman R – Two late June polls show this race as a dead heat. Incumbent Portman and Democratic challenger Ted Strickland tied at 42 apiece. Whichever presidential candidate wins Ohio, this race will probably go the same way. At the moment Clinton leads Trump giving Strickland the advantage. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D

Pennsylvania Toomey R – Incumbent Toomey has increased his lead over Democrat Katie McGinty to an average of 5-points in three June polls. Last month Toomey’s lead was 3. Toomey has this lead even though Clinton leads Trump by 4 points here and last month they were tied. This is a head scratcher. One Democratic candidate, Clinton takes a good lead and the other, McGinty drops further behind. Sounds like a bunch of ticket splitters to me. Toomey will pull this out, Pennsylvania changes from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. 50 R 50 D

Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold leads Republican incumbent Johnson by 13 points with only 13% of the electorate undecided. Enough said. Democratic gain 49 R 51 D

This month I added Iowa to my watch list and changed Pennsylvania from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. The Democrats will control the senate by a 51-49 margin.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans now have 33 seats at risk to 7 for the Democrats which is the same as last month. The Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take over control of the House. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats will pick up 18 of the GOP’s 33 at risk seats while losing one of their own. That is a net gain of 17 seats which is one less than last month. The new House will have 230 Republicans to 205 Democrats.

Presidential Election

I use party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, the two major parties nominees along with the Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Here are this month’s results.


I’m back to running just one model as the percentages were about the same in both the 55% and 45% voter turnout models. Last month had Clinton winning the popular vote 45.0 to Trump’s 40.9 with Johnson at 9.8 and Stein at 2.3. This month Clinton has 46.6% an increase of 1.6 points. Trump decreased to 40.0% a drop of nine tenths of a single point. Johnson is at 7.7%, he also dropped by 2.1 points and Stein at 4.4%. An increase of 2.1 points. Still a combined 12% of the vote for the Libertarian and Green Party candidates is unheard of or ever seen before. It shows the total dissatisfaction of the voters in having to choose between Trump and Clinton. Another reason I decided to stick with my tried and true model instead of two different ones is those who have responded with “Will not vote,” decreased from 18% down to 8%.

On the Electoral College side, 270 electoral votes needed to win. In states where either Trump or Clinton have at least a 5-point lead or more, they add up to Clinton 316, Trump 158. Adding the states where one or the other candidate leads by two to four points, the count goes to Clinton 338, Trump 164. This leaves only the state of Colorado where Clinton leads by 1, Nevada which is tied and Arizona where Trump leads by one. For your information states won by Romney in 2012 where Trump is in trouble are: Arizona where Trump leads by one, Georgia, Trump ahead by 4, Kansas where surprisingly Clinton leads by 7 and the swing state of North Carolina where Clinton leads by 6. Romney Received a total of 206 electoral votes. Obama won states that Clinton is in trouble are Nevada, tied. New Hampshire and Colorado where Clinton leads by one and Ohio where she leads by two. Obama received 332 electoral votes. Of the remaining three states I am giving Clinton New Hampshire and Nevada and Trump Arizona making the final electoral count for July as Clinton 353, Trump 185.

2016 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
March Electoral vote R 200 D 338
April Electoral vote R 200 D 338
May Electoral vote R 206 D 332
June Electoral vote R 235 D 303
July Electoral vote R 185 D 353
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Comments

  1. polgara's Avatar
    Greetings, Pero,

    The "like" I gave you on this report is for your hard work keeping us advised - but honestly I would like to see you report different stats, just to keep me in good humor... : What happened in June and July to account for the swing in the electoral vote change - Trump's big mouth mistakes?
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by polgara
    Greetings, Pero,

    The "like" I gave you on this report is for your hard work keeping us advised - but honestly I would like to see you report different stats, just to keep me in good humor... : What happened in June and July to account for the swing in the electoral vote change - Trump's big mouth mistakes?
    Lots of reasons Pol, mostly in the state polls Clinton either took the lead from Trump or increased her leads. One reason may have been the decline in those who stated they would not vote deciding to vote for the lesser of two evils, which they deem was Clinton. Not that they like her, they don’t. Trump has a habit of sticking his foot into his mouth or his Twitter Account, for sure. But he has yet to act presidential, continuing his 5th grade school yard bullying tactics along with his name calling is turning independents off. Then too is money, Clinton has it, Trump doesn’t. Trump has made enemies of the Republican establishment which he must rely on its infrastructure for the get out the vote campaign, for its mega money donors and they don’t feel like helping him much. Especially since Trump made them his enemy with all the negative attacks against them.

    Then in the states, Kansas of all states has Clinton on top of Trump by 7 points. Kansas we are talking about. But Kansas Republicans really, really dislike Trump. Look at the 8 swing states, Colorado, Clinton by 1, Florida Clinton by 7, Iowa Clinton by 5, Nevada tied, New Hampshire Clinton by 4, North Carolina Clinton by 6, Ohio Clinton by 2, Virginia Clinton by 3. Of the traditional swing states, Trump doesn’t lead in a single one. Then there are these traditional red states: Arizona Trump by 1, Georgia Trump by 3, Mississippi Trump by 3, Kansas Clinton by 7 and there is more.

    In 2012, Romney received 206 electoral votes and he won those states by an average of 16 points to gain those 206 electoral votes. In those same states, today Trump is leading by an average of 7 points which puts such states as Georgia, Mississippi, Arizona, Missouri, Kansas in play for Clinton. So far there is nothing in the blue states that Obama carried where Clinton is in trouble. Just the swing states of Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia, but that is to be expected. They are swing states. For Trump to have a chance he must win Ohio, Florida and North Carolina along with all the states Romney won. That still leaves Trump shy by 17 electoral votes. If Trump can keep Arizona, Georgia, Mississippi and Kansas, then he needs to take Nevada, tied now and then probably Virginia where Trump trails by 3 which would give him 272 electoral votes. But if he loses Arizona which is very possible, if not moving into the probable range, where would he make up those 11 electoral vote from?

    His supporters mention Pennsylvania, but Clinton has moved out to a 5 point lead there. Possibly taking both Colorado and New Hampshire could make up for the loss of Arizona. Numbers are against Trump. But there is still time. But unless Trump can somehow make peace with the Republican Party leadership and it elected officials, get the help he needs from them. He may be peeing into the wind.

    That is a shame for the GOP, as almost any other candidate could have easily defeated Clinton. Hence my believe this year that the Republicans were more interested in making a statement than winning in November.
  3. tres borrachos's Avatar
    Hi Pero, you're picking Hassan to beat Ayotte?
  4. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos
    Hi Pero, you're picking Hassan to beat Ayotte?
    That's what the numbers tell me, as of July anyway. New Hampshire is slowly moving from purple to light blue. It has a PVI of D+1, which means the Democrat has a slight, very slight advantage within the New Hampshire electorate as a whole. The polling numbers are very close with around 10% still undecided. But the kicker is Clinton has moved out to a 5-point lead in New Hampshire as of today.

    Unless there is quite a lot of ticket splitters, which is possible, Trump is becoming a drag on Ayotte. New Hampshire won't be the only state to suffer from Trumpitus. Now there is still time for this to change, but as of today, I would put Hassan chances at around 60%. That's 3-2 odds. But as in betting, odds go up and odds come down. Most political pundits would call this race too close to call. But I like taking the leap.

    But if the numbers change, I can also change it for August.
  5. Unitedwestand13's Avatar
    Hey Pero, I think you might need to add Indiana to your watch list.

    Evan Bayh mounting Senate return - CNNPolitics.com
  6. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13
    Hey Pero, I think you might need to add Indiana to your watch list.

    Evan Bayh mounting Senate return - CNNPolitics.com
    I already annotated Indiana to be added to the Republican at risk list for next month. I'll probably add Missouri also, Blount only leads Kandar by 3 points in a July 12th PPP poll. Colorado is under consideration of coming off the Democratic at risk list. In three of four July polls in Colorado between Glenn and Bennet, Bennet has between a 13 to 15 point lead. In the remaining poll Bennet lead by 6. That would leave only one senate seat at risk for the Democrats, Nevada. That would bring the Republican at risk seats to 11 vs. only one for the Democrats. It getting to a point where the democrats regaining the senate is almost a foregone conclusion. The only question left is by how many seats.

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