PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST June 2016
by, 06-12-16 at 02:05 PM (1892 Views)
PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST June 2016
Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.
Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.
Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have eight at risks seats this election cycle, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Arizona McCain R – McCain leads Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick by 6, but with 23% of the voters still undecided, I will call Arizona a lean McCain state. Lean means the race is very competitive, but Republicans still slightly outnumber Democrats in this state. Republican hold 54-46.
Colorado Bennet D – The Republican Primary takes place on June 28th. There are 5 Republicans fighting to challenge incumbent Bennet. Until we know which one will be the nominee, Colorado remains a Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D
Florida Rubio R – Both Republican and Democratic Primaries are not until August. So we don’t know who the nominees will be. On the Republican side the choice is between Jolly, DeSantis and Lopez-Cantera. On the Democratic side, the choice is between Grayson and Murphy. When matched up Republican candidate vs. Democratic candidate, the duo of Grayson and Murphy continue to lead the Republican trio by an average of 3 points. Democratic gain. 53 R 47 D
Illinois Kirk R – Democrat Tammy Duckworth continues to lead the incumbent Kirk by just 3 points. This is much closer than I expected. Still I think Duckworth will win fairly handily in November. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D
Nevada Reid D – With the Nevada primaries scheduled for June 14th, Republican Joe Heck seems like a cinch to defeat Sharon Angle. He has a 67-11 lead. Heck will face off against Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto in November. This race is neck and neck, but the Democrats do have a slight advantage in Nevada’s PVI. Nevada is a lean Cortez Masto state. Democratic hold 52 R 48 D
New Hampshire Ayotte R – Democrat Hassan now leads incumbent Ayotte by 2 points. I am placing this seat in the lean Hassan, Democratic column. Democratic gain 51 R 49 D
North Carolina Burr R – Burr continues to lead Democrat Deborah Ross by 3 points average. But with 18% of the vote undecided and Libertarian Candidate Haugh garnering 8% of the vote, North Carolina is in the lean Burr, Republican column. Republican hold 51 R 49 D.
Ohio Portman R – This race is a dead heat between the incumbent Portman and the Democratic challenger Ted Strickland. But since Clinton leads Trump in Ohio by 5.5 points, I think she will have enough coat tails to give Strickland the win. Ohio leans Strickland. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Incumbent Toomey lead Democrat Katie McGinty by 3 points in a June 5th poll. That same poll shows Clinton and Trump tied in Pennsylvania. So history and PVI comes into play. Both point to a McGinty and Clinton win. Democratic gain 49 R 51 D
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold leads by double digits over Republican incumbent Johnson. Democratic gain 48 R 52 D
No changes this month. The Democrats will control the senate by a 52-48 margin.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans now have 33 seats at risk to 7 for the Democrats which is the same as last month. The Democrats need to gain 30 seats to take over control of the House. That isn’t going to happen. The Democrats will pick up 19 of the GOP’s 33 at risk seats while losing one of their own. That is a net gain of 18 seats which is 3 less than last month. The new House will have 229 Republicans to 206 Democrats.
I use party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, the two major parties nominees. I also added Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein to my models. Here are this month’s results.
In my addendum for May the vote totals were Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote with 47.1%, Trump at 45.2%, Johnson 6.1%, Stein 1.5%. This month I ran two models, the 45% low voter turnout and the 55% normal or high voter turnout model. I was certainly surprised by the difference between the two. For June in the 45% voter turnout model Clinton wins with 40.8% to Trump’ 37.9%. Libertarian Gary Johnson had a more than expected 14.7% and Jill Stein the Green Party candidate had 4.6%. My conclusion on the huge drop in Clinton’s and Trump’s numbers from last month along with the rise in Johnson’s and Stein’s is that the dissatisfied voters which identify or affiliate with the two major parties, their dislike of their own nominee will stay home and not vote rather than to vote for the opposition candidate or for a third party candidate. Whereas those independents who disliked both Trump and Clinton have no problem going to the polls to register their discontent with Trump and Clinton by voting third party.
That brings me to the 55% normal or high voter turnout model. In this one Clinton wins with 45.0% of the vote, Trump came in with 40.9%, Johnson at 9.8% and Stein with 2.3%. The results of the 55% voter turnout model seem to reinforce my conclusion as to why the huge drop for Trump and Clinton in my 45% voter turnout model. Both Clinton’s and Trump’s vote percentage rises around 7 points using the higher voter turnout model. But regardless of the model, high or low voter turnout, Clinton wins. By 3 points in one and 4 in the other. The question in my mind now is those independents who dislike both Trump and Clinton, will they vote their third party choices in November or will they hold their nose once in the voting booth and vote for the lesser of two evils or the least worst major party candidate.
On the Electoral College side, 270 electoral votes needed to win. In states where either Trump or Clinton have at least a 6-point lead or more, they add up to Clinton 227, Trump 154, same as last month. Adding the states where one or the other candidate leads by three to five points, the count goes to Clinton 245, Trump 181. Clinton adds Ohio where she leads by 5.5 point and Trump add Arizona and Georgia where he leads by 4 points. Of the Remaining States, Trump leads in Florida by 1, Missouri by 2 and North Carolina by 1. Clinton leads in New Hampshire by 1 and in Virginia by 2. Pennsylvania is tied while Colorado, Iowa and Nevada have not been polled. These states fall into the too close to call or tossup column. Given the voting history, party strength and the PVI, Partisan Voting Index of each of these states, I forecast Clinton will win New Hampshire, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada. Trump takes Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. June’s final electoral count is Clinton 303, Trump 235. The only change is Florida goes to Trump whereas Florida went to Clinton last month.
2016 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
March Electoral vote R 200 D 338
April Electoral vote R 200 D 338
May Electoral vote R 206 D 332
June Electoral vote R 235 D 303
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