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PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST February 2016

PEROTISTA’S 2016 SENATE, HOUSE and PRESIDENTIAL FORECAST February 2016

Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the Current Senate.

Safe Democratic seats 8: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington. The Democrats have two at risks seats this election cycle, Colorado and Nevada.

Safe Republican seats (16): Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah. The Republicans have seven at risks seats this election cycle, Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Competitive senate races:

Arizona McCain R – McCain has only a one-point lead over Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick which for the pundits makes this race too close to call. But I am sticking with the incumbent McCain. Republican Hold. 54 R 46 D

Colorado Bennet D – Bennet looks like a sure winner. I am tempted to place Colorado in the safe Democratic group. But I will hold off for another month. Democratic Hold 54 R 46 D

Florida Rubio R – Jolly looks like he will win the Republican nomination to replace Rubio and Grayson the Democratic senate nomination. These two are in a dead even match up at the present. If I thought either Bush or Rubio would be heading the GOP ticket, I would go with Jolly. But since it looks like Trump, I am sticking with the Democrat. Democratic gain. 53 R 47 D

Illinois Kirk R – With no new polling out of Illinois this month, I am sticking with Democrat Tammy Duckworth to win. Illinois is dark blue and Kirk is not well liked. Democratic gain 52 R 48 D

Nevada Reid D – A two-month old poll has Republican Joe Heck with a 47-37 lead over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. Based on that I am sticking with the Republican. Republican gain. 53 R 47 D

New Hampshire Ayotte R – Two new polls this month has Ayotte up by 5 and 2 points over Democratic Governor Hassan. I am tempted to switch New Hampshire back to a Republican hold. But that doesn’t feel right in a state that is trending blue. I am sticking with a Hassan win. Democratic gain. 52 R 48 D

North Carolina Burr R – The Republican incumbent continues to lead Democrat Deborah Ross by 10 and 11 points. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Ohio Portman R – Although the polls show Strickland ahead of Portman by 2 and 3 points, that is within the margin of error. In other words we have a dead heat. In an even race my rule of thumb is to go with the incumbent and that is exactly what I am going with. Portman wins. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Pennsylvania Toomey R – Sestak leads McGinty by 5 points for the Democratic nomination to challenge Toomey. Outside of that there has been no new information coming out of Pennsylvania. Either one of these two Democrats should be able to defeat Toomey in November. Democratic gain. 51 R 49 D

Wisconsin Johnson R – Democrat Russ Feingold has expanded his lead over Johnson to 13 points. No contest in November. Democratic gain 50 R 50 D

There are no changes in the senate forecasts this month. The senate remains a 50-50 tie with whomever is elected VP casting the tying vote and determining who controls the senate.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. For 2016 the Republicans have 29 seats at risk vs. the Democrats 7. The other 400 seats have at least a 90% chance of staying with the party that currently holds them. In the end the Republicans will lose 17 of their 29 at risk seats while the Democrats lose 3 of their 7. The Democrats will have a net gain of 14 seats and the new House will have 233 Republicans to 202 Democrats. The net gain of 14 seats for the Democrats is 3 more than last month.

Presidential Election

Using party affiliation/identification figures along with favorable/unfavorable ratings and polls between Clinton and Trump, their party’s leading candidates for their nomination. Here are this month’s results.


Both candidates dropped this month in the popular vote percentages, Hillary dropped from 49.0% last month to 47.9% this month, Trump fell from 47.6% to 46.3%. The reason both fell was due to the number of independents who preferred a third party choice rather than vote for Trump or Clinton. Showing their dissatisfaction with having to choose between Clinton and Trump in November 12% of independents stated they would not vote at all and another 6% for a third party candidate. If over 5% of the electorate vote for a third party candidate it will be the highest total for third parties since Perot received 8% in 1996. But unlike 1968 Wallace, 1980 Anderson, 1992 and 1996 Perot, there are no third party candidates who have announced and making headlines like those three did. Having over 5% of the electorate stating they will vote for someone else without any third party candidate on the campaign trail speaks volumes as to the dislike most independents have to the prospective Trump vs. Clinton match up. Both Trump and Clinton have around a 60% unfavorable rating among Independents. Keep in mind folks usually do not vote for someone they dislike. Bloomberg has not announced yet, but if he did the latest polls show him garnering 17% of the independent vote in a three person race. Such is their dislike for the prospective Clinton vs. Trump show down in November.
On the Electoral College side there was no change. Clinton still leads Trump 294 to 244. Three states are actually pure toss ups, North Carolina and Florida which I have going to Trump, Ohio which I have in the Clinton column. Those three states were within the margin of error in the polls, every other state was outside the margin of error. Things change and will, but if you are a Republican you better hope for a lot more change. Even winning Ohio the last of the pure toss up states would not be enough to put Trump into the White House. So stay tuned.

2015 Electoral Vote Tabulation Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
April Electoral Vote R 238 D 300
May Electoral Vote R 233 D 305
June Electoral Vote R 204 D 334
July Electoral Vote 219 D 319
August Electoral Vote R 248 D 290
September Electoral vote R 241 D 297
October Electoral vote R 212 D 326
November Electoral vote R 197 D 341
December Electoral vote R 200 D 338
2016
January Electoral vote R 244 D 294
February Electoral vote R 244 D 294
 
Thanks again for your hard work here, Pero! Neither party is showing good sense at this point in time - so what else is new? :thumbdown: - but it is early and with the entire world showing more dysfunction than I have ever seen before in retrospect, I guess anything goes? Time marches on....

Using one of the quotes you recently sent me, "When I was a boy, I was told anyone could become President - I'm beginning to believe them!" Clarence Darrow just about says it all! :lamo:

Keep on keeping us advised, my good friend! *hug*
 
polgara;bt3416 said:
Thanks again for your hard work here, Pero! Neither party is showing good sense at this point in time - so what else is new? :thumbdown: - but it is early and with the entire world showing more dysfunction than I have ever seen before in retrospect, I guess anything goes? Time marches on....

Using one of the quotes you recently sent me, "When I was a boy, I was told anyone could become President - I'm beginning to believe them!" Clarence Darrow just about says it all! :lamo:

Keep on keeping us advised, my good friend! *hug*


I have been saying on the other site that almost any other candidate has a better chance of defeating Clinton than Trump. I am working on a simulation/tabulation of a Rubio vs. Clinton match up for November. Once ran, I will post it here in another blog. I just do not believe the two major parties know how much the average voters, not party members detest Trump and Clinton as candidates. But like I said before, it is the parties who choose their own candidates, not the people at large or the general electorate. More to come.
 
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