4. Motives
one may ask himself - why in hell would Georgia want to perform such an attack when it is sure there will be an immediate Russian response - who Georgia certainly cannot hope to win against, no matter its military budget.
however, if one thinks a bit, the answer is really not difficult, and there are tons of hints that all indicate the same. Saakashvili's central goal is not to win - it is to drive as many Ossetians out of South Ossetia as possible (and kill a lot in the process). the nighttime first-strike usage of area-attack Grad systems against Tskhinvali, the quick withdrawal of Georgian troops once Russia entered the conflict, the almost instant Saakashvili request for ceasefire after their attack, are about as clear indications of that as it gets. there are only about 70000 or so Ossetians actually left in South Ossetia after the repressions of the '91 war led to massive refuge streams into North Ossetia. with 30000 of them having fled the same direction already now, more sure to follow if the fighting continues, and the capital in ruins, Saakashvili can be fairly certain that South Ossetia as an ethnic province will simply cease to exist - thus solving all Georgian problems with it. its just plain and simple
ethnic cleansing. there would simply be no point for Russia to defend a foreign territory where nobody even lives anymore.
while it is quite obvious that is the main objective of the Georgians here, there are more. if the above approach proves successful with Ossetia, there is no reason for Georgia not to do it a second time with the other wannabe-independent province, Abchasia. furthermore, the whole conflict serves as a good measuring stick for the Pentagon planners behind Saakashvili for the ability of the Russian military to respond to such events. it also clearly quite weakens Russia politically, and creates it a bad international image - especially with the extremely biased western reporting (see below). Saakashvili's almost comically overblown PR efforts are a clear indication of that - his speeches are almost all in English (even on Georgian TV), he constantly has the EU flag behind him (although Georgia has no relation to the EU), and he produces lots of unverifiable or just plain ridiculous statements - some samples:
"Russia has been bombing Georgia specifically targeting civilian population, and we have scores of wounded and dead among civilian population all around the country, and these are exclusively civilians"
"Russian troops are fighting against Georgian self-defense (sic) troops.. this is the worst nightmare one can encounter"
"They have been preparing and studying world opinion, how the world would react, and now they have just moved in, this is unheard of, absolutely outrageous"
(right.. they've been carefully studying world opinion in order to move in at the worst possible time)
"Russian president Putin has often told me this all is unacceptable for him, not only my close relations with the US and the West, but the political system Georgia has opted for - democracy and freedom" (carbon copy of the famous American question "why do they hate our freedom and democracy")
"We are attacked because we wanted to be free, because we wanted to build genuine democracy" (right.. destroying a city and killing lots of civilians had absolutely nothing to do with it)
"look at the timing: Olympic games, people dont care about politics, American elections, you know, most of the statesmen are gone for the holidays, and its ideal time to attack this small country.. i think it is a very well-planned provocation" (when i heard this I almost fell off my chair.. i think he forgot to add "by me")
"at 24am Russian APCs started to cross into Georgian territory, and there we had to act, there we had to fire back the artillery" (firing Grads on the centre of Tskhinvali to stop (mythical) Russian APCs crossing Georgian border 50km away.. yeah right..)
"this small nation is right now fighting for its survival, but we are also fighting for world peace and future world order" (this is so ridiculous that it needs no comment)
sources:
CNN interview
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pm8q-S-Fyo
Reuters:
YouTube - Much at stake in Georgian conflict
another potential goal of his may be to counter his recent drop in inner-Georgian popularity and the weak results and poll falsification accusations for the 2008 election, which is not so different from the old US strategy of inciting external conflicts to distract from deficiencies in inner politics.
so...all in all nothing really surprising here except perhaps the fact that the lunatic Saakashvili actually attacked a city and killed almost 2000 people on the opening day of the Olympic games - a fact unprecedented in history. if that was really authorized by his Pentagon bosses (and, well, given his very close ties to the US it must have be) then... man... they still live in the age of napalm and dropping nukes on Hiroshima.
5. Western news coverage
and now lets look at the way the western press and TV reported the issue... really an interesting study in indirect lying and propaganda techniques. first of all, the initial highly destructive, cruel, and underhanded Georgian attack on Tskhinvali was practically not reported in the US, or only as a minor footnote. their first messages about the war:
CNN: "Georgia under attack: Russian tanks invade". first CNN commentator about the war: Mikhail Saakashvili. he complains in English (with the EU flag in background - Georgia isnt even a EU member (!)) about being a poor victim of Russian aggression - while in the background they show the Georgian Grad systems firing at Tskhinvali (!!). they quote the number of people killed in Tskhinvali - but only once and in what a great way: "South Ossetia: 1600 killed in fighting" during the Saakashvili please-help-us speech. implied picture for the viewer: Russians killed them all. in the whole hour of the report, there is zero information from the Russian side, and zero information from the Ossetian side. just the Georgian "information" - with Saakashvili appearing 3 times.
British Sky News: same picture. first report: footage of Grads firing, and a comment of "Georgian side states that 7 of its citizens have been wounded in Russian strikes". followed by footage of Russian T-90s rolling into Ossetia. 1500 people killed by Georgians? Tskhinvali in ruins? too unimportant to notice. instead they show a split picture of left: reservists drafted by Saakashvili standing around in civil clothes looking noob, and on the right modern Russian T-90 tanks in antiradar camouflage and BTRs rolling by. another great (not-so-)subtle way to brainwash people into believing crap.
BBC: same crap. first TV report: Russian warplanes are bombing Georgian town of Gori. term they use to call the Ossetians: "separatists". headline article on BBC website: "Russian tanks enter South Ossetia", with subheadline "Georgia is fighting with separatists backed by Russia".
Times: same crap. "Russia turns might of its war machine on rebel neighbour Georgia", "Georgia calls for ceasefire after Russian invasion".
Washington Post: even worse. Headline: "Stopping Russia: The U.S. and its allies must unite against Moscow's war on Georgia".
The Guardian: "Russian tanks roll into Georgia as cities burn".
source: compilations of western TV clips and news website articles:
YouTube - ????? ? ??????. ???? ? ??????? ? 2:30 (???)
YouTube - ????? ??????? ?????? ? ???????? ??????? ????????
YouTube - ????? ?????? ? ???????? ???
Italian TV: almost the same. Italian 1st channel news: "during Olympiad opening ceremony everyone hoped for peace and stability, and suddenly Russia attacks Georgia". source: Julietto Quieza, Italian member of the European Parliament.
for a bit of a contrast, in Germany, the initial Georgian attack was reported, and the whole news picture is somewhat more balanced. the SPD (one of the parties in the currently ruling coalition) criticized Georgia, its minister for foreign affairs Gernot Erler calling it a violation of international rights by Georgia, and the Russian response understandable (source: n-tv.de). however, the predominant TV coverage is still from correspondents in Georgia showing the Georgian point of view (a la "help us poor victims of Russian aggression").
German/Austrian/Swiss newspapers are in general less propagandistic too and the serious ones like FAZ or Die Zeit give a more balanced view, reporting the attack on Tskhinvali and analyzing the facts, with conclusions similar to what i wrote above. an article in the Austrian Der Standard by politics professor and East Europe expert Gerhard Mangott at the Universität Innsbruck said that the military escalation is exclusively in Georgia's interest, with Russia having no other choice than to respond by striking Georgian military.
the Swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung called Saakashvili a provocateur and described him as "having lost the sense for reality".
still, from my general impression observing the news reporting in the last 2 days:
how f***ing low can those so-called Western "journalists" and media sink? their "information" is disinformation^2. so, please,
DONT TRUST YOUR TV AND NEWSPAPERS. read independent sources and papers like German/Austrian/Swiss ones. if all those media can get as perverse as defending this underhanded, cruel, calculated attack and the following hypocritical whining, they really arent far from the level of Goebbels' Propagandaministerium which called invading Poland - using the mightiest military machine in the world at the time - "self-defense".