donsutherland1

On September 1, 2008, the European Union will be holding an emergency meeting on the situation in the Caucasus. While sharp words have been exchanged with Russia, the meeting is likely to avoid the confrontational approach of proposing economic sanctions. More than likely, one can expect the following outcomes:

• Reaffirmation of the Sarkozy ceasefire agreement. The EU will call for all parties to fully meet their obligations under that agreement.

• Call on Russian troops to withdraw from the present buffer zone with monitors from The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) replacing them.

• Rejection of Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The EU is not likely to accept Russia’s recognition of the two breakaway provinces as sovereign states and is likely to suggest that Russia’s recognition violates the UN Charter and OSCE principles.

• Reaffirmation of the territorial integrity of its Eastern European members. It could also call for Russia to respect Georgia’s territorial integrity.

• Call for a peaceful resolution of the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and dialogue with all parties to overcome the consequences of the recent mini-conflict between Georgia and Russia. The EU could offer to play a mediating role in any agreed political process.

• No economic sanctions against Russia are likely to be adopted.

• A Georgian request that the EU bar European businesses and individuals from conducting business in Abkhazia or South Ossetia without first obtaining Tbilisi’s permission is not likely to be accepted.

• The EU is not likely to call for Russia’s expulsion from the G-8.

• The EU will not withdraw its support for Russia’s joining the World Trade Organization (WTO).

• There is a chance that the EU could link planned EU-Russia partnership talks (scheduled for September 15-16) to full compliance with the ceasefire agreement or even temporarily postpone such discussions.

• A commitment to provide Georgia with humanitarian and economic assistance. Given tensions in the region, the EU is not likely to offer assistance in rebuilding Georgia’s military capabilities.

donsutherland1

The European Union concluded its extraordinary meeting on the recent conflict between Russia and Georgia. The meeting produced a five-page document outlining the EU's positions. The EU did not impose economic sanctions on Russia.

The overall outcome was pretty much in line with expectations:

• Reaffirmation of the Sarkozy ceasefire agreement. The EU will call for all parties to fully meet their obligations under that agreement.

The EU reaffirmed the ceasefire agreement and called for all parties "to continue the full implementation in good faith of the agreement [Sarkozy ceasefire agreement] they have signed."

• Call on Russian troops to withdraw from the present buffer zone with monitors from The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) replacing them.

The EU called for all military forces to withdraw to the pre-August 7 lines "without delay." In return, the EU announced that it would strengthen the OSCE presence in those areas.

• Rejection of Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The EU is not likely to accept Russia’s recognition of the two breakaway provinces as sovereign states and is likely to suggest that Russia’s recognition violates the UN Charter and OSCE principles.

The EU "strongly" condemned Russia's unilateral recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It also called on other nations not to extend recognition to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

• Reaffirmation of the territorial integrity of its Eastern European members. It could also call for Russia to respect Georgia’s territorial integrity.

The EU declared that all European states "have the right freely to determine their foreign policy and their alliances" and that "it is also legitimate for the security interests of each to be taken into account, so long as the fundamental principles of respect sovereignty, territorial integrity and the independence of States are respected."

• Call for a peaceful resolution of the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and dialogue with all parties to overcome the consequences of the recent mini-conflict between Georgia and Russia. The EU could offer to play a mediating role in any agreed political process.

The EU recalled the need for "a peaceful and lasting solution to the conflict in Georgia..." and called for "international talks" to begin concerning "security and stability arrangements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia." The EU indicated that it is "ready to commit itself" to such efforts, "including through a presence on the ground..."

• No economic sanctions against Russia are likely to be adopted.

The EU imposed no economic sanctions.

• A Georgian request that the EU bar European businesses and individuals from conducting business in Abkhazia or South Ossetia without first obtaining Tbilisi’s permission is not likely to be accepted.

The EU did not adopt Georgia's request that it prohibit European individuals and companies from doing business in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the absence of Georgia's permission.

• The EU is not likely to call for Russia’s expulsion from the G-8.

The EU did not call for Russia's expulsion from the G-8.

• The EU will not withdraw its support for Russia’s joining the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The EU did not withdraw its support for Russian membership in the WTO.

• There is a chance that the EU could link planned EU-Russia partnership talks (scheduled for September 15-16) to full compliance with the ceasefire agreement or even temporarily postpone such discussions.

The EU postponed such talks "until troops have withdrawn to positions held prior to 7 August..." It reaffirmed its intention to engage Russia in "partnership and cooperation."

• A commitment to provide Georgia with humanitarian and economic assistance. Given tensions in the region, the EU is not likely to offer assistance in rebuilding Georgia’s military capabilities.

The EU announced that it is "prepared to supply aid for reconstruction in Georgia, including the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia." No military assistance was offered.

In addition, the EU announced that it would begin exploring initiatives to increase the security of its energy supplies through diversification.

bub

Some countries (UK & Netherlands mainly) wanted sanctions, but others (Germany & Italy) didn't want to be too "hard" with Russia. And we need their gaz. That's why there won't be any sanction.

I just hope the Georgians won't be too disapointed.

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GarzaUK

The thing people sometimes forget is that the EU is not a single identity its is 27 different identities. That makes consensus almost impossible. It doesn't even have an army for christs sake, how we going to take on Russia?

Plus the EU and Russia are dependent on each other, we need their gas, they need our goods.

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They tried like hell. They called him an élitist, a radical, a socialist, a Marxist, a Muslim, an Arab, an appeaser, a danger to the republic, a threat to small children, a friend of terrorists, an enemy of Israel, a vote thief, a non-citizen, an anti-American, and a celebrity. ~ George Packer

donsutherland1

Bub,

On account of the need to build consensus, I expected a softer EU response. In my opinion, the EU's response was both balanced and constructive. It reflected Europe's larger interests while making clear that Europe expects Russia to fully honor the terms of the ceasefire agreement both Russia and Georgia accepted. It reiterated the need for a peaceful solution to the historic dispute concerning Georgia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia (a necessity that predated the recent mini-conflict). It avoided the kind of overreaching that could have exacerbated tensions and worsened the situation.

Further reflecting the trend toward a possible cooling of tensions, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree this afternoon for Russian forces to participate in a European Union mission in the Republic of Chad and the Central African Republic pursuant to UN Security Council Resolution 1778 and a request for such participation by the EU.

Infinite Chaos

THAT'S the important signal to the Russians. However with Russia claiming a huge stake in the Arctic potential oil feilds we may be very reliant on Russia for many years.