donsutherland1

At Thursday's meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to be held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, Russia will be seeking the SCO's endorsement for its military intervention in the Caucasus. The Moscow Times reported:

Russia will be looking for unambiguous support from Asian nations, including China, in its standoff with the West over South Ossetia and Abkhazia when the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets Thursday in Dushanbe.

Moscow is hoping the SCO members, which also include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, will sign a declaration expressing unequivocal support for Russia's stance in the conflict over South Ossetia by condemning violence and praising Russia's role in mediating the hostilities there, a Foreign Ministry official said Tuesday.

"We are hoping that our efforts in resolving the conflict in Georgia will be acknowledged," said a ministry official familiar with the situation, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to reporters. "A draft declaration is currently being confirmed at the expert level."

It will be particularly interesting to see how China squares the recent events in South Ossetia and Abkhazia with its own internal affairs. On one hand, China could be concerned that the successful separation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia would have implications for Tibet's or the Xinjiang Province's status within China, as well as China's aspirations for reunification between the Mainland and Taiwan. Therefore, China would likely oppose any forceful advocacy of self-determination and perhaps defer political recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. On the other hand, China could see the Caucasus situation as a distinct matter on account of what had been a de facto unresolved political situation following the breakup of the Soviet Union. China could express support for peaceful political efforts aimed at addressing unresolved political disputes e.g., those that linger from the breakup of the Soviet Union.

In the larger geopolitical framework, China's providing a measure of support for Russia's position could confer a degree of legitimacy on Russia's actions. Such support could bolster Russia's near-term willingness to pursue its interests, even those that clash with Western ones. In the longer-run, should China evolve toward a closer relationship--and possibly an alliance--with Russia, that development would lead to a fundamental realignment of the global balance of power.

My early guess is that the language in the SCO's statement on the recent events concerning Russia and Georgia will likely be quite restrained. The language could closely mirror the Sarkozy ceasefire agreement's terms. The general principle of a non-use of force to settle political disputes could be a centerpiece. Reaffirmation of Russia's peacekeeping role could also form part of the statement. Whether or not there is explicit criticism of Georgia's initial attempt to resolve the political status of South Ossetia by force remains to be seen.

There are probably limits to the wording China could accept. But Russia more than likely is less interested in China's acceptance of strident language than it is in demonstrating to the U.S. and Europe that it enjoys sufficient outside support so as to make efforts to isolate it on grounds of recent events futile. Hence, Russia would likely be satisfied with reasonably mild language that omits any criticism of Russia. Language that is consistent with the Sarkozy ceasefire agreement would probably satisfy Russia's needs.

In any case, regardless of the outcome of the SCO's conference, in the years ahead, the U.S. and European Union will need to manage their relations with China in a constructive fashion. Promoting greater trade and increased cooperation on shared interests will be important. Attempting to isolate or punish China for protectionist or political reasons could eventually become hazardous.

donsutherland1

In what could be an early indication that there are limits to the wording China could accept at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting concerning recent developments in the Caucasus, the BBC reported:

China addressed the crisis for the first time by expressing "concern" about developments in the region and urging dialogue. The comments came as Chinese President Hu Jintao met President Medvedev in Tajikistan ahead of a regional summit.

Separately, the Russian Government released a statement that declared:

Mr Medvedev informed the Chinese President about the situation with South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The two Presidents exchanged views on current international issues, in particular the situation in Central Asia, with an emphasis on strengthening the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) potential and giving it a greater role in ensuring security and stability in the region.

An "exchange of views" usually connotes differences of opinion. In my view, U.S.-European Union diplomatic efforts should be focused on obtaining compliance by all parties with the Sarkozy ceasefire plan. To maximize prospects of diplomatic success, it is imperative that the world's great powers, including China, be fully engaged in the process. China has real concerns i.e., as the relate to Tibet, its Xinjiang Province, and desire for future reunification with Taiwan. Constructive engagement with China through trade/economic and political relationships can reduce long-term prospects that China would be enticed to become a counterweight to the West. A general approach that is based on non-interference in the domestic affairs of sovereign states can accommodate Western interests and China's needs.

Finally, with creative diplomacy and carefully constructed incentives and penalties, it may yet be possible for the West to address Russia's recent recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in a fashion that reduces tensions. Although Russia has recognized the sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, it is probably not too late to reach a diplomatic understanding that would tie on-the-ground measures to implement the recognition e.g., exchange of diplomats, etc., to the culmination of a formal political process, but only if that process results in the sovereignty of both breakaway provinces (which probably was more than likely even before the mini-war). Such an approach would serve Western interests by freezing the recognition situation. It would also avoid humiliating Russia.

That mutually beneficial approach could help ease tensions. Afterward, the improved situation could allow for the design and pursuit of a political process that will be necessary to resolve the status of both provinces. It should be noted that such a political process would have been required even if the recent hostilities had not occurred. Reliance on that process to resolve the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would accommodate the needs of the West, Russia, Georgia, and the two provinces in question. Most importantly, agreement that the political process would settle the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which would, in fact, represent a return to the previous framework advocated by the UN, would assure that Russian arms did not procure the outcome.

donsutherland1

It appears that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization issued a communique that was pretty much in line with what was described at the beginning of this thread.

The statement's language was restrained. It did not single out any party as the "aggressor." At the same time, it declared strong support for the Sarkozy ceasefire agreement stating, "SCO member-countries hail [the] approval of the six principles in Moscow on 12 August to regulate the conflict in South Ossetia..." It underlined the importance of non-violence observing that the "solution of problems through force has no prospectus, and prevents complex regulation of local conflicts. The comprehensive solution of conflicts is possible if the interests of all sides are taken into consideration in [the] negotiation process, but not isolation."

As expected, given the statement's reaffirmation of Russia's peacekeeping role, support for the Sarkozy ceasefire agreement, embrace of non-violence, and rejection of isolation, Russia was satisfied with the declaration's language. The BBC reported:

Speaking at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), President Dmitry Medvedev said the group had a united position that would have "international resonance".

"I hope it will serve as a serious signal to those who try to turn black into white and justify this aggression," he said in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe.

Separately, Russia through the West an slight opening for a thaw in tensions by rejecting Iran's request for the SCO to create an associate membership role for Iran.