Poll: Groups unhappy with Bush

scottyz · 10-07-05, 07:42 PM

Quote:

WASHINGTON - Evangelicals, Republican women, Southerners and other critical groups in
President Bush's political coalition are worried about the direction the nation is headed and disappointed with his performance, an AP-Ipsos poll found.

That unease could be a troubling sign for a White House already struggling to keep the Republican Party base from slipping over Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers, Gulf Coast spending projects, immigration and other issues.

"Politically, this is very serious for the president," said James Thurber, a political scientist at American University. "If the base of his party has lost faith, that could spell trouble for his policy agenda and for the party generally."

Quote:

Only 28 percent say the country is headed in the right direction while two-thirds, 66 percent, say it is on the wrong track, the poll found.

"There is a growing, deep-seated discontentment and pessimism about the direction of the country," said Republican strategist Tony Fabrizio, who believes the reasons for their pessimism differ for those in one political party or another.

Among those most likely to have lost confidence about the nation's direction over the past year are white evangelicals, down 30 percentage points since November, Republican women, down 28 points, Southerners, down 26 points, and suburban men, down 20 points.

Bush's supporters are uneasy about issues such as federal deficits, immigration and his latest nomination for the Supreme Court. Social conservatives are concerned about his choice of Miers, a relatively unknown lawyer who has most recently served as White House counsel.

"Bush is trying to get more support generally from the American public by seeming more moderate and showing he's a strong leader at the same time he has a rebellion within his own party," Thurber said. "The far right is starting to be very open about their claim that he's not a real conservative."

The president's job approval is mired at the lowest level of his presidency — 39 percent. While four of five Republicans say they approve of Bush's job performance — enthusiasm in that support has dipped over the last year.

Quote:

"We've lost focus on where we're supposed to be going and not able to respond to the crises that affect the people of this country," said David Ernest, a Republican from San Ramon, Calif., who is angry about the government's response to Hurricane Katrina. "We're mired in a Middle Eastern adventure and we've taken the focus off of our own country."

Quote:

"I approve of what the president is doing, but it's a mixed decision," said Richard Saulinski, a Republican from Orland Park, Ill. "We should get out of Iraq. It seems like there's no light at the end of the tunnel. I just think we're dealing with a culture we don't really understand."

The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted by Ipsos, an international polling company, from Monday to Wednesday and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051007/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_ap_poll;_ylt=AnGkd6UIm0bvqnC9iDgvnfGMwfIE;_yl u=X3oDMTA3OXIzMDMzBHNlYwM3MDM-

XShipRider · 10-12-05, 06:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by article

"...AP-Ipsos poll...

Pretty much tells you how the poll will turn out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by article

"Only 28 percent say the country is headed in the right direction while two-thirds, 66 percent, say it is on the wrong track, the poll found."

What were the questions?
How were they posed?
What was the demographic of persons polled? Oops, the article goes on...

Quote:

Originally Posted by article

"...white evangelicals, down 30 percentage points, Republican women, 28 points, Southerners, 26 points, and suburban men, 20 points.

I've never known anyone to self-proclaim, "I'm a white evangelical."
"Southerners" is a broad term.
"Suburban men" is another one.

Do these people wear t-shirts, or what?

Quote:

Originally Posted by article

Seen as having a political agenda

Great reportage here. Isn't this why we call them "politicians?"

I'm skeptical of any poll, not just this one, conducted for any reason.
There is always a hidden agenda and the questions can be posed to
reflect a desired outcome.

Personally, This post is of bad quality. of the President for a couple of reasons. Some of the
current doings (Patriot Act and Prescription Drug Benefit) come
to mind). This is not to say I don't like him, I do. I just don't like the spend,
spend, spend mentality. And I'll be darned if I trust the feds with sticking to
the implied intent of the Patriot Act (i.e. to fight terrorism). That law will be
stretched to beyond the breaking point in pursuit of non-terror related crime.

Eh.... I could be wrong. Just my opinions.

galenrox · 10-12-05, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XShipRider

Pretty much tells you how the poll will turn out.

What were the questions?
How were they posed?
What was the demographic of persons polled? Oops, the article goes on...

I've never known anyone to self-proclaim, "I'm a white evangelical."
"Southerners" is a broad term.
"Suburban men" is another one.

Do these people wear t-shirts, or what?

Great reportage here. Isn't this why we call them "politicians?"

I'm skeptical of any poll, not just this one, conducted for any reason.
There is always a hidden agenda and the questions can be posed to
reflect a desired outcome.

Personally, This post is of bad quality. of the President for a couple of reasons. Some of the
current doings (Patriot Act and Prescription Drug Benefit) come
to mind). This is not to say I don't like him, I do. I just don't like the spend,
spend, spend mentality. And I'll be darned if I trust the feds with sticking to
the implied intent of the Patriot Act (i.e. to fight terrorism). That law will be
stretched to beyond the breaking point in pursuit of non-terror related crime.

Eh.... I could be wrong. Just my opinions.

The polling could be biased, but major polling group make a huge amount of effort to avoid bias, or else their credibility would be nothing. It doesn't matter much, since many people just assume it's biased without really knowing much about what is actually going on.
As far as classifying what demographic they fit in, they probably asked some simple questions, and probably used the same questions for a while, so that it's a control, so that the only possible explanation for a change in percentage is that fewer people in that group support Bush or the direction that this country is going. They probably asked for gender, religion, whether or not they would consider themselves evangelicals, do they live in an urban, suburban, or rural setting, things along those lines.
And the selections of who to ask are done with a random number generator to avoid a bias to someone who likes certain numbers. And the sample is mathematically large enough to know that the result is within the statistical margin of error.

Sorry, I took statistics in high school and it ticks me off when people are so skeptical of polls in general.

XShipRider · 10-12-05, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by galenrox

...or else their credibility would be nothing.

Precisely my point. This, in my opinion, is why I question polls.

Quote:

Originally Posted by galenrox

It doesn't matter much, since many people just assume it's biased without really knowing much about what is actually going on.

Precisely my point. Though I highly doubt any of the news outlets
(including AP) commission a poll without first posing the questions.
See my far-fetched example at the end of this contribution.

Quote:

Originally Posted by galenrox

...they probably asked... (we're not sure, are we?)
...They probably asked... (repeat - we're not sure, are we?)
And the selections of who to ask are done with a random number generator to avoid a bias to someone who likes certain numbers.

Which explains why the exit polling data from the last election was so
skewed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by galenrox

Sorry, I took statistics in high school and it ticks me off when people are so skeptical of polls in general.

Me too. The teacher told us to be skeptical of polls. Of all the days I
skipped or just plain didn't listen, that particular day I showed up and
listened.
Don't take it personal, I'm not attacking you or your view. Polite
discourse would make for a better country (in my opinion).:smile:

Okay here's my parody of a poll commissioned by (pick your news
outlet) followed by the way they report it.

Poll question: Is the earth truly round?
Those in the know give the scientific answer by saying "no." A few
public high school graduates (include me) aren't sure. A few "southerners"
think it resembles a NASCAR oval track.

Here's how the news reports it: 66% OF AMERICANS SAY EARTH IS FLAT

Was the question ever posed as "is the earth flat?" No. But because
2/3 said the earth isn't round the spin was given to indicate a completely
misleading headline.

Ridiculous? Yes. But I firmly believe the precise question posed for any
poll should be published along with the results. This would allow people
to decide for themselves if they too agree with the reported results.