128shot

http://www.gnn.tv/headlines/5057/Thi...onmental_Chief



new chapter in our modern life?

Simon W. Moon

It'll take more than one guy's say-so to be much of a case for something that's not exactly repeatable in a controlled environment.

__________________
"That is the problem... [we] fell in love with the idea that politicians-- even the slickest and brightest presidential candidates-- were real heroes and truly exciting people. That is wrong on its face. They are mainly dull people with corrupt instincts and criminal children. -H.S.T"

SouthernDemocrat

There have been a couple of studies so far on our current huricanne season that back this guys claims up (there are tons of studies on global warming that back up his claims). The scientific consensus is that Global Warming is a reality. Global Warming means warmer ocean temps. The ocean temps in the Gulf are at record levels. Warmer ocean temps mean more intense hurricanes.

However, hurricanes are cyclical. For a few decades you get less, then for a few decades you get more and they are more intense.

I would suspect that we are both in the natural cycle of stronger and more frequent hurricanes, and global warming has made that natural cycle more severe.

Simon W. Moon

Here're some helpful resources


Hurricanes, Climate, and Katrina: Research, Reviews, and Articles from Science Online

Stinger

I believe most true scientist would condemn any such statement as a "scientific" conclusion.

And as George Will pointed out on ABC citing the numbers from the National Hurricane Center this morning and reported by NewsMax

" From 1901 till 1950 - when the U.S. economy was a fraction of its current size and fossil fuel consumption was next to nil - there were 34 hurricanes rated at Catagory 3, 4 or 5 in size on the Saffir Simpson scale.
In the latter half of the twentieth century - when U.S. manufacturing exploded, automobile use skyrocketed and rampant consumerism was the order of the day, hurricane activity actually decreased by nearly 20 percent, declining to 28 Catagory 3-5 hurricanes from 1951 to 2000......................... That's almost as low as the last five decades of the 19th century - when the overwhelming majority of Americans lived on farms, manual power was generated by watermills and cars had yet to be invented. From 1851 to 1900 there were 27 major hurricanes in the U.S."


http://newsmax.com/archives/ic/2005/9/25/131154.shtml


Somtimes things are as some state them to be, especially those who have not checked the numbers correctly.

Go and view an actual plot of the historical data and then come back and tell me if you believe the unsupported assertions by the gentle you cite are clearly indicated.

http://www.techcentralstation.com/091404D.html

""Global warming causes increased storminess" makes for interesting headlines. It also violates fundamental scientific truth and the lessons of history."

George H. Taylor, Certified Consulting Meteorologist and State Climatologist, Oregon.

Stinger

But since the data backs none of this up............................

SouthernDemocrat

If you read my post, it could be either way. It could be totally cyclical, or it could be to one degree or another influenced by global warming. Even when its cyclical, the oceans are in a warmer period. You cannot have strong hurricanes without warmer water. That is a fact. The only discussion is what made the water warmer.

I don't think anyone knows for certain. However, I will take the opinions of climatologists over George Will and Newsmax anyday.

wxcrazytwo

Global Warming plays a small role in hurricanes. This season as well as last season has been the start of a CYCLICAL pattern. Global Warming has been in the forefront because of the melting ice, etc. However, was global warming ever mentioned when Andrew hit, was it ever mentioned when the great Galveston cane hit, was it ever mentioned when Hugo, Mitch, and all the other major canes struck the U.S.? No, they were not. There is no doubt that we are heading towards a run away greenhouse, but its effect on canes is negligible. It all depends on the SST’s, MJO, La Nina/El Nino, SAL’S, and other meteorological phenomenon’s on how cane development will occur.

Stinger

Which go through cyclic temperature changes

Who were quoting climatologist and the National Hurricane Center which is clearly stated and I also linked to the State Climatologist from the State of Oregon. Would you like a link to the man who is considered the most expert in this area who also disagrees with the claim?

Now the seed post for this thread stated

“Increasingly it looks like a smoking gun. It’s a fair conclusion to draw that global warming, caused to a substantial extent by people, is driving increased sea surface temperatures and increasing the violence of hurricanes.”

That is a specious statement not supported by the data or the climatologist.

wxcrazytwo

Umm, it takes more than warm water to create hurricanes. I think you need to brush up on your met skills.