The combination of Senator Obama’s decisive win in North Carolina and Senator Clinton’s merely surviving in Indiana has tilted the odds increasingly in favor of Senator Obama’s gaining the Democratic Party’s Presidential nomination.

Based on the latest delegate tally at RealClearPolitics.com, Senator Obama now leads Senator Clinton by 152 delegates. That lead could increase somewhat as not all of the delegates from yesterday’s primary contests have been apportioned. Currently, there are 267 superdelegate votes that have not gone to either of the candidates. If Senator Obama maintains his 152-delegate lead at the conclusion of the campaign season, Senator Clinton would need to take 210 (78.7%) of the remaining superdelegate votes. Even if Senator Clinton erodes Senator Obama’s lead to 120 delegates, something that would require decisive wins by Senator Clinton in all of the remaining contests, she would still need to lock up almost 73% of remaining superdelegate votes. To date, she has won 271 of the 528 superdelegate votes or 51.3% of those votes. Recent superdelegate votes have been breaking somewhat in Senator Obama's favor.

With the endgame math running much against her, Senator Clinton could attempt a “Hail Mary” effort at seating the Michigan and Florida delegations based on the disputed vote in both states. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) excluded those states’ delegations on account of Michigan's and Florida's holding their primaries earlier than the DNC had permitted. At the time the DNC set its rules, all of the Democratic Party candidates accepted the rules of the game. What Senator Clinton would be seeking is an endgame rules change in her favor.

The Democratic Party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee will be meeting at the end of May. If the disputed delegates were seated, Senator Clinton could significantly erode Senator Obama’s lead. However, the fallout from such a decision would be that the DNC would have established a precedent by which its campaign season rules could readily be ignored by the States. That latter precedent would have a potentially far-reaching and lasting impact on the nominating process for both Parties. Hence, the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee will probably seek some kind of middle ground that allows it to preserve the integrity of its rules while allowing Florida and Michigan some voice at the Convention. Inviting both States to re-run their primaries would be one option, but the DNC would not likely pay for those primaries, especially as it was Florida’s and Michigan’s decisions that would have made the re-runs necessary. The DNC could also seek to split the delegations for each of the two candidates either on a 50-50 basis or in proportion to their share of the national vote, in effect seating the delegations but ignoring the outcome of the disputed early vote in the two states. The DNC could also seat the delegates but limit them to a non-binding vote at the Convention.

Out of desperation, Senator Clinton could attempt legal action, but odds would be against her prevailing in such an action. Moreover, she would risk destroying her standing in the Democratic Party in what would widely be viewed as a naked grab for power against the will of the Democratic Party’s voters and in defiance of the DNC's rules. Such a bid would all but assure that she would have no future prospects at gaining the Democratic Party's Presidential nomination.

Another scenario would entail Senator Clinton’s suspending her campaign in the face of the odds now confronting her and initiating efforts to build Democratic Party unity. Given how far she has proceeded in the campaign process and her personal tenacity, that outcome is probably least likely, though it cannot be ruled out.

In the end, the practical mathematical implications will likely have the last word. Given the magnitude of the challenge that now confronts Senator Clinton, it is a reasonable assumption that Senator Obama has all but become the Democratic Party's presumptive Presidential nominee.

Originally Posted by Navy Pride Hell I could probably beat McCain.....

Originally Posted by danarhea I agree, but Hillary doesn't. Her people still believe she can win. Something is wrong with their crystal balls. But at this stage of the game, why would anybody want a crystal ball, when they can have a toaster? LOL.

Originally Posted by reaganburch Dan, I'm pretty sure HER balls aren't anywhere near crystal....

Originally Posted by Hatuey They're closer to steel....

Originally Posted by reaganburch Dan, I'm pretty sure HER balls aren't anywhere near crystal....