McCain Beating the Crap out of Clinton/Obama in Polls

RightinNYC · 03-27-08, 05:45 PM

I think this is the biggest it's been to date:

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Quote:

National poll:

McCain - 51
Obama - 41

McCain - 51
Clinton - 41

Daaaaaamn, son.

Even more remarkable is the general attitudes toward each candidate:

Quote:

Favorable/Unfavorable/Spread

McCain: 56 / 41 / +15
Clinton: 44 / 54 / -10
Obama: 46 / 52 / -8

Digging a little deeper into those numbers, it's pretty safe to assume that people on either extreme of the spectrum aren't going to go the other way come Nov. regardless of what happens. It's rare to go from having a "very favorable" impression of someone to being unfavorable and although this is approval we're dealing with, not vote totals, it's a very important proxy.

Hillary is in by far the worst position.

Quote:

Very Favorable - 20%
Somewhat Favorable - 24%
Somewhat Unfavorable - 18%
Very Unfavorable - 36%

She's got 20% in her pocket and needs to pull 30 of the middle 42% in order to even hit 50% approval.

Obama is somewhat better:

Quote:

Very Favorable - 25%
Somewhat Favorable - 20%
Somewhat Unfavorable - 20%
Very Unfavorable - 32%

He's got a significantly larger staunch base and less people staunchly opposed, meaning he only needs to pull 25 of the middle 40% to hit 50% approval.

McCain's in an interesting position:

Quote:

Very Favorable - 19%
Somewhat Favorable - 37%
Somewhat Unfavorable - 22%
Very Unfavorable - 18%

Of the three candidates, he has the fewest people locked up, perhaps reflecting many Reps lukewarm feelings for him. However he has a huge advantage when it comes to his potential reach. With only 18% of people out of reach, he has a full 59% of the population that he needs to draw 31% of.

There was other good news for McCain:

Quote:

New polling released today shows that, in Oregon Obama leads McCain while McCain leads Clinton. In Missouri, McCain leads both Democrats.

While McCain and Obama trade barbs about the economy, most Americans oppose federal assistance for homeowners who took on mortgages they can’t afford. When it comes to the War on Terror, the number of Americans who believe the terrorists are winning has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded since tracking began in January 2004.

Not a bad day for his camp.

Rightwing86 · 03-27-08, 07:04 PM

Not bad. Thanks for the update bro.

Panache · 03-27-08, 07:11 PM

And for those who thought even the Democrats couldn't screw this election up...

Hatuey · 03-27-08, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RightinNYC

I think this is the biggest it's been to date:

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Daaaaaamn, son.

Even more remarkable is the general attitudes toward each candidate:

Digging a little deeper into those numbers, it's pretty safe to assume that people on either extreme of the spectrum aren't going to go the other way come Nov. regardless of what happens. It's rare to go from having a "very favorable" impression of someone to being unfavorable and although this is approval we're dealing with, not vote totals, it's a very important proxy.

Hillary is in by far the worst position.

She's got 20% in her pocket and needs to pull 30 of the middle 42% in order to even hit 50% approval.

Obama is somewhat better:

He's got a significantly larger staunch base and less people staunchly opposed, meaning he only needs to pull 25 of the middle 40% to hit 50% approval.

McCain's in an interesting position:

Of the three candidates, he has the fewest people locked up, perhaps reflecting many Reps lukewarm feelings for him. However he has a huge advantage when it comes to his potential reach. With only 18% of people out of reach, he has a full 59% of the population that he needs to draw 31% of.

There was other good news for McCain:

Not a bad day for his camp.

McCain is kicking the crap out of the non-existent democratic nominee? This would have some relevance if Obama and Hillary weren't still fighting for votes.

RightOfCenter · 03-27-08, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hatuey

McCain is kicking the crap out of the non-existent democratic nominee? This would have some relevance if Obama and Hillary weren't still fighting for votes.

I agree, as soon as it becomes a two person race the numbers will change dramatically.

jfuh · 03-27-08, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RightinNYC

I think this is the biggest it's been to date:

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Daaaaaamn, son.

Even more remarkable is the general attitudes toward each candidate:

Digging a little deeper into those numbers, it's pretty safe to assume that people on either extreme of the spectrum aren't going to go the other way come Nov. regardless of what happens. It's rare to go from having a "very favorable" impression of someone to being unfavorable and although this is approval we're dealing with, not vote totals, it's a very important proxy.

Hillary is in by far the worst position.

She's got 20% in her pocket and needs to pull 30 of the middle 42% in order to even hit 50% approval.

Obama is somewhat better:

He's got a significantly larger staunch base and less people staunchly opposed, meaning he only needs to pull 25 of the middle 40% to hit 50% approval.

McCain's in an interesting position:

Of the three candidates, he has the fewest people locked up, perhaps reflecting many Reps lukewarm feelings for him. However he has a huge advantage when it comes to his potential reach. With only 18% of people out of reach, he has a full 59% of the population that he needs to draw 31% of.

There was other good news for McCain:

Not a bad day for his camp.

Are you taking NP's roll now in posting these weekly polls?

donc · 03-27-08, 07:43 PM

[B ]Dueling polls, this WSJ poll, shows something differentl[/b].

< In the head-to-head matchups, there weren't huge shifts in the numbers, with Obama and Clinton dead even at 45 percent in the national Democratic primary matchup (a slight increase for Obama from early March). In the general-election matchups, Obama led McCain by 2 points, and McCain led Clinton by 2 points; all margin of error results and nothing to get too excited over.>

NBC-WSJ poll: New Clinton lows - First Read - msnbc.com

Kandahar · 03-27-08, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RightOfCenter

I agree, as soon as it becomes a two person race the numbers will change dramatically.

I agree as well.

Also, I'd like to point out that while McCain would probably beat the Democrat if the election were held today, the election is NOT being held today. And the prediction markets (a more accurate barometer than polls taken months in advance) still give a Democrat a healthy 60% chance of being elected president this November. Admittedly, this is down from a 65% chance a few months ago, but still a pretty sizable advantage.

RightOfCenter · 03-27-08, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kandahar

I agree as well.

Also, I'd like to point out that while McCain would probably beat the Democrat if the election were held today, the election is NOT being held today. And the prediction markets (a more accurate barometer than polls taken months in advance) still give a Democrat a healthy 60% chance of being elected president this November. Admittedly, this is down from a 65% chance a few months ago, but still a pretty sizable advantage.

Prediction markets? I'm unfamiliar with this. Do you mean like Vegas odds or something?

RightinNYC · 03-27-08, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hatuey

McCain is kicking the crap out of the non-existent democratic nominee? This would have some relevance if Obama and Hillary weren't still fighting for votes.

Did you happen to skip over the 80% of the post discussing approval ratings for each candidate?

Quote:

Originally Posted by RightOfCenter

I agree, as soon as it becomes a two person race the numbers will change dramatically.

I agree as well, though they won't automatically snap back to where they were recently. It's also uncertain how these numbers will be affected as the Dem nomination process continues.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfuh

Are you taking NP's roll now in posting these weekly polls?

Is there anything particularly objectionable about the link, news, and analysis I provided, or do you just feel like complaining?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kandahar

I agree as well.

Also, I'd like to point out that while McCain would probably beat the Democrat if the election were held today, the election is NOT being held today. And the prediction markets (a more accurate barometer than polls taken months in advance) still give a Democrat a healthy 60% chance of being elected president this November. Admittedly, this is down from a 65% chance a few months ago, but still a pretty sizable advantage.

Agree, and the even more important thing is the electoral college calculus, which still shows a near dead heat. Of course, as McCain's approval increases and the Dems continue to attack each other, it makes it that much harder for them to come back later on. Once someone decides that they like something, they become more receptive to positive reinforcement of that thing and less likely to listen to things criticizing it. The more people identify themselves as liking McCain, the harder it will be for the Dems to overcome that message.