Alex

The most recent Survey USA poll:

Electoral votes for Obama in Obama vs. McCain:
California, 55
Colorado, 9
Connecticut, 7
Delaware, 3
Hawaii, 4
Illinois, 21
Iowa, 7
Maine, 4
Maryland, 10
Massachusetts, 12
Michigan, 17
Minnesota, 10
Nevada, 5
New Hampshire, 4
New Jersey, 15: tie
New Mexico, 5
New York, 31
North Dakota, 3
Ohio, 20
Oregon, 7
Rhode Island, 4
Vermont, 3
Virginia, 13: tie
Wisconsin, 10

Total: 251
Total with ties: 279 ties (28)


Clinton vs. McCain:
Arkansas, 6
California, 55
Connecticut, 7
Delaware, 3
Florida, 27
Hawaii, 4
Illinois, 21
Maine, 4
Maryland, 10
Massachusetts, 12
Michigan, 17: tie
Minnesota, 10
New Jersey, 15
New Mexico, 5: tie
New York, 31
Ohio, 20
Pennsylvania, 21
Rhode Island, 4
Tennessee, 11: tie
Vermont, 3
West Virginia, 5
Wisconsin, 10

Total: 268
Total with ties: 301, ties (33)

This most recent Survey USA poll says Clinton has the better chance. The problem is that Obama is not very popular in Florida or Pennsylvania and they have many electoral votes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_Opinion_Polling_for_the_United_States_Pr esidential_Election%2C_2008#Michigan

the makeout hobo

Why are you posting to a survey from February? I know they've done more recent ones since then.

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Alex

It is only a couple of weeks ago and the most recent I could find. You are the one who referred to Survey USA in another thread so I found thier most recent poll and reported it.

I think if there were more recent ones they would benifit Clinton anyway. These polls where taken before NAFTAgate and they were taken before Clinton gained back some popularity. I have to wonder if Obama lost some of it in Ohio.

the makeout hobo

http://www.debatepolitics.com/us-ele...edictions.html

Here is maps from their site of their most recent polling. It shows Obama winning witha few more votes, but doing overall better.

Alex

I do not know if that is the most recent one. I do know that I took my data from the most recent one I could find, and Survey USA does not have any more recent.

Alex

That map counts the (almost?) ties and favors Obama. States that are that close should not be factors in choosing a nominee. I think it should be the states that have a better picture of the winner. Clinton has the advantage in these states. Clinton has a 9 point lead in Florida over McCain, Obama is behind by 2 points. Clinton has a 5 point lead in New Jersey over McCain, Obama is tied. Clinton is only 1 point ahead in Pennsylvania over McCain, but Obama is behind by 5 points. Obama has probably lost some support in Ohio, but we will not know that for sure until a more recent poll is released.

the makeout hobo

Yes they do. From 4 days ago.

SurveyUSA Blog Archive Electoral Math as of 03/06/08: Obama 280, McCain 258

SurveyUSA Blog Archive Electoral Math as of 03/06/08: Clinton 276, McCain 262

That work for you?

Alex

03/06/08 was the day that it was released. If you look at the pages for the individual states, in the upper left-hand corner, it says the data was collected 02/26/2008 - 02/28/2008. That is the exact data I used for my calculations.

the makeout hobo

Then why does yours show Clinton winning, and mine shows Obama winning?

Alex

See post #6. You are probably right that Survey USA gives the electoral votes to someone who is a few hundredths of a point ahead.