The Bhutto Assassination: Some Quick Thoughts - Page 4

bhkad · 12-30-07, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kandahar

Where to even begin...

First of all, Islamic extremism is not on the rise in Pakistan. Less than 10% of Pakistanis support them, which is down considerably from just a few years ago.

Second of all, there is little risk of Pakistan being "Talibanized" because despite their resurgence in some rural areas of Pakistan, they simply do not have the manpower to take over a country the size of Pakistan.

Third of all, it is no longer in ANYONE'S interest to support Musharraf. He allowed this to happen, either by direct association or by intentional negligence to protect her. We'd be better off with Sharif, or Bhutto's successor, or even another military leader who overthrows Musharraf in a coup.

Fourth of all, these predictions about what will happen - which you posted less than two hours after her death - are entirely speculative. You have absolutely no idea what will happen in Pakistan now. No one does. While anticipating actions and reacting to them is a key part of international politics, it's absurd to think you can figure it out within 90 minutes of her death. Musharraf hadn't made any comment, Bhutto's party hadn't given any speeches, Sharif hadn't commented, Bush hadn't commented, etc.

Here are some opinions from Pakistanis discussing a bill to implement Shariah law in the NWFP (North West Frontier Province).

Quote:

Tuesday, 27.05.2003 - 23:42 GMT

Do you support the Shariah Bill?

Will it lead Pakistan towards progress?

North West Frontier Province's legislative assembly is the most active house in the country. It has enacted several laws in quick succession, in areas as diverse as school uniforms, gender segregation and playing of music in passenger buses.

Most if not all the new laws have one thing in common: A subjective interpretation of Islamic Shariah. Now the assembly has admitted a Shariah Bill for discussion, which will affect education, economy, and justice and policing systems of the province.

How do you rate the performance of NWFP assembly thus far? Is it leading the country in the direction of Islamic law or merely skirting the more important issues? How will the steps taken by the assembly, affect your own life and those around you?

Yes, we want Islamic law in Pakistan. We made Pakistan in the name of Islam. Therefore I fully support Shariah Bill.
Islam Ali Shah, UK

People who are trying to implement it should have clear understanding of Islam first. They must show by example to everyone in the country what Islam supposes to mean and how it can bring changes in the lives of every citizen in a positive way regardless of their religion. So far, those who talk about Shariah Bill brought nothing but instability and hatred to the country. Islam is a modern religion and it should be understood and implemented as such. If this is the intention, I support it, otherwise we should wait until we completely understand the religion, its meanings, and its teachings.
Mohammad Ali, Washington

This is the sign of illiteracy in Pakistan. Our leaders are illiterate and also the major population. Yes, I want Islamic Law in Pakistan, but not this way. We have to go step by step. First come education and poverty. Please solve these problems first, then we will talk about how women are being used in ads by these commercial companies and violating the rights of women.
Junaid Ahmed, Brampton

No, it is sad to see that some write, living under the umbrella of "freedom of speech", in favour of Shariah Bill. I think most of the people have forgotten the misery the Shariah bill caused in Afghanistan. These mullahs will take the right to express your point of view, so forget about rational debate. Pakistan is a new Afghanistan in the making, more poor and religiously fanatic.
Nasir Chaudhry, Lahore

Which Shariah? Sunni Shariah,Wahabi Shariah,Deobandi Shariah,Brailwi Shariah? Which one? I think nobody knows what does Shariah mean. Please ask Ahmadi Muslims what Shariah is.
Saquib, Frankfurt

This is not a Shariah Bill; this is Government Bill like that one brought by Zia ul Haq.
Kahlid, Pakistan

Yes, this is very, very good. May Allah help us!
Aamir, Lahore

Yes, I highly appreciate the Shariah bill. Pakistan came into being in the name of Islam. So, there should be wholly Muslim laws in practice. The decision of NWFP government to practice Islamic values though Shariah bill is a true voice of every true Muslim citizen of Pakistan.
Muhammad Favsal, Karachi

Yes, because Pakistan came into being in the name of Islam and Islam is the only solution for the problems of the Ummah and the world.
Riaz, Pakistan

Yes, I do support very strongly this move. But MMA must divert their attention towards elimination of poverty from their province, where they are running their government. They must provide jobs to the jobless people, they must provide justice to the people. It is also very important. Islam insists very strongly to provide food, jobs, etc to the needy people.
Shahid, Faislabad

No, I will never support the Shariah Bill. It will push Pakistan towards poverty and unrest amongst the civilians. Islam does not teach extremism and fundamentalism. We need a moderate government, not these culprits. For Allah's sake, get rid of these Mullahs!
Omar, Illinois

In my view, I think nobody should make any speculation about the Shariah system in NWFP. Let it be implemented and flourish and then comment on the things that would occur by this system. MMA got the mandate by the people of the province and they better understand what its manifesto is. I don’t like them much, but i wish every government to complete its term. Only then we can better know them.
Muhammad Majeed, Rawalpindi

I think the question is not whether to implement Shariah or not as we, being Muslims, believe that Islam is a complete code of life but the issue is how to implement these laws. I would like to suggest the rulers in NWFP to go about with the Shariah implementation systematically because this change can't be brought all of a sudden. It would definitely take some time but gradually we would be able to adopt the Islamic laws in whole. I would also like to request my Muslim brothers, who are opposing the Shariah implementation, that please study Islam in depth and you will find that Islam is really a complete code of life.
Waseem Khaliqdad, Islamabad

I will be very glad if it is sincere attempt. Let us see what they do. Because, they won majority of seats in the name of God. We have tried many politicians and parties claiming to work hard for betterment for the people and to enforce Islam but only slogan.
Mohammad Anwar Afridi, FATA

All these steps are misleading. True that Taliban established a rule of law and drug free society, which is highly commendable, but the negative side goes to the lack of efforts needed for better living standard to people. The government there should adopt the Shariah or Islamic Law with an understanding. My personal opinion is that the people who say that these are 1400 years old laws and cannot be implemented are misleading and misinformed.
Zaheer Khan, India

Let first the Mullahs become Muslim. They have never accept the Hadith that Ulema of this age will be the worst creation on earth.
S Ali Khan, Virginia

How a Muslim can be against Shariah bill? One can differ with some interpretation, but Shariah must be constitution of a Muslim country.
Dr Yousaf Dar, Gujrat

There are more responses at the link.

Urdu Front Page | BBC World Service

donsutherland1 · 01-02-08, 08:59 AM

Several additional quick points on developments in Pakistan:

• The election has now been postponed until February 18. This should hopefully provide a period of time for violence and other post-assassination turmoil to subside.

• Pakistan's Islamist parties are likely to offer the strongest opposition to the delay in the election. Possibly sensing that momentum was on their side, they had been calling for an election to be held as soon as possible. Pakistan's Urdu-language, pro-Islamist newspaper Ausaf opined, "...it is in the supreme interest of the country that elections should be arranged at the earliest, as it is the only safe way to get out of the crisis. It is a fact that Pakistan is passing through the most dangerous period of its history these days. If any unwise decision was taken, it would trap us in a more complicated situation."

The late Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) also appears to be opposing the delay in elections. "We reject this delay outright," said Sen. Babar Awan from the PPP. Some within the PPP had expected an upwelling of sympathy for the late former Prime Minister to propel the party to a strong showing. However, in my opinion, electoral outcomes that are the result of cool calculation and rational analyses of interests are generally preferable to those based largely on passion. This does not mean that a PPP victory would only be possible in the absence of such rational decisionmaking. It just means that prospective voters should let passions cool and then return to the task of choosing leaders. After all, Pakistan faces a critical moment in its history in which radical Islamists are increasingly vying for power, Talibanization is ongoing, all the while the country seeks to make a transition toward democracy.

At this time, a delay makes more sense than a rush to the polls, as Pakistan currently lacks the political and legal institutional framework that is conducive to effective democratic governance. As a result, any electoral outcome will likely be challenged as "illegitimate." During a time when passions are running strongest, these suspicions could prove most explosive in igniting a new spiral of violence or worse. Earlier in this thread, Tashah highlighted the realities that confront Pakistan. It is a vital point in understanding where things stand in Pakistan today. She observed, "Given the many serious fractures within this nation, a democratic and liberal form of governance is problematic at best and perhaps impossible at worst."

• There are some issues as to whether all the riots/violence that followed the Bhutto assassination was spontaneous. Some of the lawlessness targeted critical infrastructure e.g., the nation's railway system. Pakistan's Daily Times reported that 140 coaches and 22 locomotives were burned and railway telecommunications and signaling infrastructure was targeted. All said, an estimated $5 billion (U.S.) in damage occurred. Whether or not extremist elements acted opportunistically in the wake of the assassination remains to be seen. Already, acting Finance Minister Dr Salman Shah has suggested that "foreign elements" were involved in some of the violence. The Pakistan government has usually used "foreign elements" to describe Al Qaeda, Taliban, and Arab nationals involved in anti-government violence in and around Pakistan.

donsutherland1 · 01-03-08, 09:42 AM

Additional developments in Pakistan:

• Although the late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) has expressed skepticism with respect to the Pakistan Government's ability to investigate the assassination of Ms. Bhutto, the PPP has apparently rejected Scotland Yard's playing a role in the investigation. The January 3, 2008 issue of Daily Times reported:

Pakistan People's Party (PPP) however rejected assistance of Scotland Yards in investigation into its Chairwoman Benazir Bhutto's assassination but chose not to react to the army deployment in Sindh to maintain law and order. "We have already rejected investigation by Scotland Yards as the regime had already declined Bhutto's request of investigation of 18 October Karachi incident. Now, we want investigation only under the United Nations Commission," said PPP central finance secretary Dr Babar Awan.

He said that had the regime accepted Bhutto's demand of investigation of Karachi incident by Scotland Yards, her assassination could have been avoided. He said that PPP would make no comment on deployment of army troops until the government did so.

In its own editorial, Daily Times hailed the involvement of Scotland Yard. In addition, it explained why an international Lebanon-style probe is not pertinent. The newspaper wrote, "While a Hariri-style investigation into Ms Bhutto's assassination is not possible for various reasons, not least because there is no suspicion of a third state's involvement, as was the case in Mr Hariri's assassination, passions are running high and the government needs to do much more than it has done so far, which is simply to give one contradictory statement after another. The demand that the government should get help from international agencies to investigate the matter more expertly and objectively could not be faulted. Ms Bhutto's stature, the circumstances of her assassination and increasing cooperation among states on such issues demanded that the government not invoke the issue of sovereignty on this point. President Pervez Musharraf's Wednesday [January 2] address to the nation and his assurance that Pakistan will receive a team from Scotland Yard to help Pakistani agencies with the investigations is a welcome move, though it may be too little too late."

• The PPP also leveled serious allegations at the Government. The News reported, "The PPP leaders accused the provincial government as well as the district governments of Sukkur, Khairpur, Kashmore and Jacobabad of unleashing a reign of terror and oppression against thousands of PPP mourners by implicating them in false criminal cases of arson, looting and burning public and private properties in order to get, what they alleged, favourable results for the PML-Q [Pakistan Muslim League-Qauid] in the upcoming elections." PML-Q is President Musharraf's Party.

These allegations notwithstanding, the PPP provided no credible evidence to substantiate them. At the same time, no independent news sources reported such a Government-led "reign of terror." Whether or not these allegations are aimed at influencing the outcome of the February 18 election by seeking to discredit an unpopular government remains to be seen.

• Pakistan's Dawn.com news site criticized Pakistan's political leaders for showing an apparent lack of concern about the need for promoting stability in Pakistan in the wake of the Bhutto assassination. Toward that end, it made an "appeal for sanity" so that the investigation into the assassination can be thorough and meticulous and that a "free and fair election" can be held.

The news site editorialized:

With the election postponed to Feb 18, one disturbing aspect of the grim political scene needs to be highlighted. Must the atmosphere be vitiated by loose talk? Ms Bhutto’s assassination is a tragedy that has shocked Pakistan as well as the whole world. The disturbances that broke out in the country immediately after Dec 27 were in most cases spontaneous, though criminal elements also entered the fray to use the occasion to loot and plunder. The three days of rioting has done incalculable damage to the economy, besides causing the death of innocent men, women and children. At places, the railway system is in tatters, and the disruption has made the Election Commission feel that it will be unable to organise polling by next week. For the nation now, there is one aim that overrides all other considerations — a free and fair general election in a peaceful atmosphere.

Regrettably, the politicians — all of them, it seems — do not share the nation’s preference for peace, stability and transparent elections. They appear to be oblivious of the dangers inherent in a prolongation of the state of uncertainty and political animosities. By reckless talk, mud-slinging and appeals to raw emotions with ethnic overtones, the politicians are doing no service to Pakistan at a time when the whole world is watching us to see whether we as a people have the wisdom and courage to get out of the crisis. While it will take time before the truth about the conspiracy behind the assassination is established, the beginning is not very encouraging. The government has thoroughly bungled the forensic part of the investigation. The precise cause of Ms Bhutto’s death has remained a mystery because of the lack of consistency in the medical reports. The authorities are also resisting the demands for foreign help in the investigation. Given the government’s low credibility and the kind of people who run the various intelligence agencies, the demand for foreign assistance in the probe does not appear unjustified.

Let all sides realise that the investigation cannot be done in a hurry. Given the kind of personality Benazir Bhutto was, the enemies — hidden and open — she had, the ruthlessness of the Taliban-Al Qaeda mindset, the support they enjoy from their hidden sympathisers in the government, as conclusively proved by the suicide attacks within high-security areas and on President Pervez Musharraf himself, and the web of intrigues characteristic of Pakistani politics, all sides must have the common sense to let the investigators do their job with professionalism uninfluenced by political pressures. Instead, most party leaders seem to be playing to the gallery and have made no attempt to lower the level of rhetoric and cool off passions all around. In this respect some of the statements by PPP leaders and their rivals in the PML-Q were in bad taste and seemed to treat with contempt the sentiments of Pakistan’s grief-stricken people. Let our leaders note that their indiscretions could complicate the situation, and things could get out of control, thus giving anti-democratic elements an opportunity to cancel the election.

In my opinion, Dawn.com is on the mark with its analysis. Pakistan urgently needs stability so that an election can be held in a peaceful environment. It also needs to focus on the crucial task of investigating the Bhutto assassination with an emphasis on facts, alone. Conspiracy theories or blame disseminated in a quest for political advantage will only make things worse in the deeply divided country. It will sharpen the divisions and make them more enduring.

In a possibly more encouraging development, Daily Times reported that backchannel contacts between Pakistan's Government and the PPP may have resumed. The newspaper reported:

Well-placed sources told Online that Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) leader Makhdoom Amin Fahim met with a host of leaders including President Pervez Musharraf, however details of the meeting have not been disclosed as yet. President Musharraf, during the meeting with Fahim, expressed his deep and heartfelt condolences over former PPP chairwoman’s death.

PPP to be included: He said the PPP would be taken into confidence during the investigations into Benazir’s killing in Rawalpindi on December 27.

donsutherland1 · 01-03-08, 11:09 AM

For those who are interested, yesterday, George Friedman, President of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., a private geopolitical intelligence organization, wrote the following about who was possibly responsible for the Bhutto assassination:

Our first suspect is al Qaeda sympathizers who would benefit from the confusion spawned by the killing of an important political leader. The more allegations of complicity in the killing are thrown against the regime, the more the military regime is destabilized — thus expanding opportunities for jihadists to sow even more instability. Our second suspects are elements in the army wanting to use the assassination to force Musharraf out, replace him with a new personality and justify a massive crackdown.

Two parties we cannot imagine as suspects in the killing are the United States and Musharraf; neither benefited from the killing. Musharraf now faces the political abyss and the United States faces the destabilization of Pakistan as the Taliban is splintering and various jihadist leaders are fragmenting. This is the last moment the United States would choose to destabilize Pakistan. Our best guess is that the killing was al Qaeda doing what it does best. The theory that it was anti-Musharraf elements in the army comes in at a very distant second.

Tashah · 01-03-08, 03:55 PM

What a mess.

donsutherland1 · 01-19-08, 07:23 AM

An October 23, 2007 commentary piece written by Benazir Bhutto stated:

I had received credible information that I was being targeted by elements that wanted to disrupt the democratic process--specifically that Baitul Masood (an Afghan who leads the Taliban forces in North Waziristan), Hamza bin Laden (an Arab), and a Red Mosque militant had been sent to kill me. ...

The Jerusalem Post reported:

Security officials in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province said Saturday they arrested a teenager allegedly involved in the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto last month.

The suspect, 15-year-old Aitezaz Shah, told investigators he had been part of a five-man squad deployed that day in the city of Rawalpindi, where Bhutto was killed, a senior intelligence official said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to media...

The intelligence official said Shah had told investigators that the team of assassins had been dispatched by Baitullah Mehsud, a militant leader from the South Waziristan region, with strong ties to al-Qaida and an alliance with the Taliban in nearby Afghanistan...

Shah was arrested Thursday in Dera Ismail Khan with another militant identified as Sher Zaman, according to both officials.