Is the current surge working? - Page 4

SouthernDemocrat · 07-21-07, 12:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tashah

Personally, I have a tactical problem with the surge strategy and no matter how I look at it, it just doesn't go away. The problem is enemy resupply. As long as the borders of Iraq are porous, the surge strategy can at best be successful only for a finite period and only at select locations.

This implies to me that the surge is not a coherent strategy with long-term attainable goals. Rather, it is a decidedly short-term device implimented to purchase time. In simple terms, I consider the surge to be cosmetic rather than therapeutic.

This is a bit of a late response, but you would have a point if as the pentagon estimates, over 95% of the insurgency was not home grown. The enemy resupply is coming from the same neighborhood the enemy was killed or captured in.

Gladiator · 07-21-07, 10:36 AM

TYPO CORRECTION:

The US Military is now working in the countryside to seek out al Qaida bomb making labs, weapons cashes and safe houses.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gladiator

General Gaskin Press Conference Notes.

Marine Major General Walter Gaskin
CSPAN Radio at 2:10 PM to 2:50 PM, recorded from earlier in morning of Friday, 7-20-07.

Press conference from Iraq.

MILITARY:

Al Qaida has been largely driven from the towns and cities. Military operations are NOW more focusing on the outlying countryside, where al Qaida has retreated in the past, and attacked again.
.

missypea · 07-21-07, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tashah

Probably well over a year ago, I posted my belief Iraq will ultimately trifurcate. I have seen nothing to date which would influence me to alter that analysis.

I agree with you Tashah. Do you think this outcome was one the administration had foreseen?

Tashah · 07-21-07, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat

This is a bit of a late response, but you would have a point if as the pentagon estimates, over 95% of the insurgency was not home grown. The enemy resupply is coming from the same neighborhood the enemy was killed or captured in.

You would have a point if I was referencing human resupply. I considered this recruitment facet to be abundantly obvious (and you confirmed this). I was actually referring to materials/instructional resupply rather than local enlistment. My point stands.

SouthernDemocrat · 07-21-07, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tashah

You would have a point if I was referencing human resupply. I considered this recruitment facet to be abundantly obvious (and you confirmed this). I was actually referring to materials/instructional resupply rather than local enlistment. My point stands.

Even then, a lot of their materials are local. Moreover, much of their financing is local as well. It is a falsehood to think of Al Qaeda in Iraq as a branch office for Al Qaeda, its actually more like a franchise.

Iriemon · 07-21-07, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SouthernDemocrat

Even then, a lot of their materials are local. Moreover, much of their financing is local as well. It is a falsehood to think of Al Qaeda in Iraq as a branch office for Al Qaeda, its actually more like a franchise.

Iraqis were know as being relatively tolerant in the ME (compared to the Saudis, for example), a product of their nations containing large culturally diverse groups -- Sunnis, Shia, Kurds, and Christians.

I have no doubt that fundamentalist groups like Al-Queda have done their best to exploit the cultural unheaval the neocon/Bush Adminstration's policies have caused. I also suspect that the tolerance has been reduced, support for fundamentalism fueled, and that groups will find far greater support from Iraqis for their cause for many years into the future.

Unfortunately, will be living with the consequences of this fiasco for decades.

Tashah · 07-21-07, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by missypea

I agree with you Tashah. Do you think this outcome was one the administration had foreseen?

No. The Bush administration did not consider this possiblity mainly due to arrogance and a woeful lack of knowledge about Iraqi history, culture, customs, tribalism, and religious elitism. They had no inclination to educate themselves about these critical components.

It is no coincidence that Iraq was ruled by military strongmen after the departure of the British Crown. Iraq is an artificial vestige of colonialism. With purpose, the British had cobbled together people who were more often than not at cross-purposes. The reasons for this is that internal strife leaves a house weak and divided, and the strife also serves as a colonial rationale for continued occupation.

Without the heavy British hand, only the Iraqi military had the wherewithal to maintain some national semblance of internal stability. Unity was enforced through sheer terror and brute force. Under this strict regimen Iraqi's did in fact get along, but friction was always a lurking below the surface. Anyone with even a casual understanding of Iraq could have grasped this reality.

When Mr. Bremer issued CPA Order No. 1 dissolving the Iraqi military, any hope that Iraq could be peacefully salvaged was lost. The genie is out of the bottle now, and it will take much more than a temporary surge to forstall the eventual trifurcation of Iraq.

mikhail · 07-21-07, 04:00 PM

The problem with the surge is its whole idea is stupid its just sending an extra few troops into baghdad it might work for a few months but thats it.

There is economic problems that are not being talked about Iraqis only real oppertunity of work is joining the army or the police.We have to put money into trying to fix the infrastructure of the country.build back which gets destroyed again and again.The Iraqi population will see the good will.

I dont think we can do this without the troops in to have influence.

Then of course you got the sunni/shiite problem in the mixed city this guy explains it well its worth watching.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVxjCA8d240

Gladiator · 07-21-07, 05:10 PM

Al Qaida losing support in Iraq, Summer 2007.

Al Qaida uses foreigners for virtually all its suicide attacks in Iraq. Most all suicide attacks are aimed at Shiites, in an attempt to get the Siites to attack the Sunnis.

Reference: Retired General Jack Keane, and Retired General Keagan, both with the American Enterprise Institute was on CSPAN radio at about 2:30 PM on Monday, July 9, 2007.
Also speaking was James Miller, and Center for a New American Security presented A PHASED TRANSITION PLAN FOR IRAQ

Further information on Al Qaida tactics in Iraq, see Michael Yon, Imbedded Blogger with US Military.
Michael Yon : Online Magazine » Blog Archive » Al-Qaeda on the Run: Feasting on the Moveable Beast

The US surge is working becase also, at this time, the Iraqi Sunnis, who previosly supported al Qaida, have now turned against al Qaida, and there is substantailly reduced coummunity support for al Qaida safe houses and torture rooms.

.

SouthernDemocrat · 07-21-07, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gladiator

Al Qaida losing support in Iraq, Summer 2007.

Al Qaida uses foreigners for virtually all its suicide attacks in Iraq. Most all suicide attacks are aimed at Shiites, in an attempt to get the Siites to attack the Sunnis.

Reference: Retired General Jack Keane, and Retired General Keagan, both with the American Enterprise Institute was on CSPAN radio at about 2:30 PM on Monday, July 9, 2007.
Also speaking was James Miller, and Center for a New American Security presented A PHASED TRANSITION PLAN FOR IRAQ

Further information on Al Qaida tactics in Iraq, see Michael Yon, Imbedded Blogger with US Military.
Michael Yon : Online Magazine » Blog Archive » Al-Qaeda on the Run: Feasting on the Moveable Beast

The US surge is working becase also, at this time, the Iraqi Sunnis, who previosly supported al Qaida, have now turned against al Qaida, and there is substantailly reduced coummunity support for al Qaida safe houses and torture rooms.

.

Looks like the Iraqi insurgency is "in its last throws" once again....