jfuh

If history is to be of any guidance, all great powers come to an end - the exception thus far has been US.
What has been the root of this exception or rather what various factors have contributed?
Will we be replaced? If so how? Implosion or out competed?
Or will we remain a super power?

One reason I do not think we would be removed from power externally is because unlike the traditional powers we do not colonize and we do not invade (save Iraq for now) - we stand the moral high ground.

So will we self-implode? This is problematic as long as we are too self-rightous and think of ourselves as top dog in everything - however we are not a monarchy nor are we a dictatorship - we are a democracy that changes itself every now and again, and overall the population has the means to "overthrow" the ruling party without a complete destruction of the governing power itself. So probably not - even though there is legislation that is troubling.

Your inputs?

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Volker

I wouldn't call the US a super power. They still have a strong economy, a lot of military and their culture is well known in many places.

If I am correct about seeing the trend, there will be various power centers in the future, these can be countries or groups of countries.

They will be somehow interdependent, but in many fields they will simply do what they think is best for them.

Kandahar

Eventually, yes of course. But it's too distant into the future to predict the causes of it. The fact that the USA is current a democracy won't necessarily prevent implosion. There is no safeguard against the people voting for bad governments time and time again, and the country eventually evolving into an oligarchy or dictatorship.

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Maximus Zeebra

Like Volker I do not see the US as a superpower, but for different reasons..

it definetely used to be a superpower, but since the attacks of 911 and the US reactions to those attacks, the US has lost, I would estimate half its power.. The power of influence and soft power they enjoyed in the past..

Now with the rise of Europe again who have been shattered since the second world war, the US power is already diminised. Europe have greater economic power than the US, equal cultural influence and power but less foreign and military power..
The European Union is already starting to flex their foreign policy powers, and it is just a matter of a few decades until the foreign and military powers of the EU are equal to that of the US.

On the side of this, you also have the rise of China, certain to become a superpower equal to the EU and the US in the future, especially because of their massive population and growing economic and culural power.

Then you indeed have India who is also likely to become a power, equal to those powers again, maybe within the century.

So the lone superpower the US enjoyed between the second world war and 911, 2001 was not meant to last.
The next 10-20 years they have to share their powers with their ally, the European Union, and within 50 years, they again have to share their powers with China, and possibly within 100 years there will be a quartet of power in China, EU, India and the US..
The only thing that can change any of this is if one of those powers try to get domination of Space, something that again will create a hyperpower, but again, that is very unlikely to happen as enshrined in the UN it is illegal and would certainly be the start of a new global war, something unthincably bad in an age of nuclear weapons.


Ps.. Must mention also that there is high possibility that the ASEAN, MERCUSOR and a possible ARAB union will also be powers in the future, but not like the first 4 mentioned.


So to answer your question, the US hyperpower age of 50 years is over, and the only way a state or a union will ever be a hyperpower again is a grab of space domination behind the worlds back, something very unlikely to happen, and with terrible consequences if it did.

Volker

I appreciate people who mention my name in their first post

Our reasons seems to be not so different, but you could express it better.

Welcome at DP

Kandahar

You're right that the US has lost a lot of its power in the last six years, but I think that that's a temporary blip in the history books that will be reversed as soon as we get a competent, sane president.

I also agree with you about China and India (and I would add Japan). They're likely to become major players on the global level.

I assume you're from Europe, given your uber-optimistic assessment of Europe's future. Europe is undergoing a HUGE decline of importance...much greater than America's decline, and much less reversible. The European economy is stagnant and the population is declining. Frankly I would be very surprised if Europe had as much power in 50 years as it has now...let alone even MORE power to rival those other countries.

Maximus Zeebra

Thanks, i think you will get to see me a lot on this forum in the future. :smile:

I just agree with that first statment... They have a strong economy, but so do others, they have a strong military, but what good is a strong military these days anyways? What can they actually do with that? Invade the world?

Rome was a true superpower in the fact that they had revenues and military enough to dominate the rest of the world, their output being at their hight equal to the rest of the worldf together.. The US is far from that.

A military of 1.5 million soldiers is not enough to even contain the violence and protests in their own country if the US tried to show they are a superpower or invade the wrong nation, less alone 6.5 billion people, or 20 million+ other armed forces around the world..

jfuh

I don't know about power, if influence then yes, we've lost much of that but then I also think it's simply a blip in history for now.
China and India - China already has much more influence in many matters more than we do - it's aspirations for becoming a major power is also very clear today.
As for India, I don't seeing it becoming a significant or relevant power until it can resolve it's own domestic issues of equality - the country is simply too split with little unity - unacceptable for being a power.

Japan? She was a power before, but IMO, today is being completely overshadowed and shoved out by China - but as long as Japan can continue it's innovations it will still be relevant, though not a power.

I'm quite glad this thread has gained the attention it has in the short time it's posted. Certainly hope it stays as clean as it has so far with real discussions and intellectual exchange.

Donkey1499

Implosion would be my first choice; even tho Japan seems to be running away with the electronics and auto industries. But that external competition isn't a threat.... yet!

But if America were to implode, I see a secession of the blue states from the red states, or vice-versa. The political competition in America is getting more and more fierce by the day. You got right-wing sound machines (like Anne Coulter) that make baseless and senseless accusations against the left. And then you have left-wing college students shouting down conservative speakers on college campuses. You got election fraud by BOTH sides (ACORN comes to mind first).
I believe a rift is being caused and it may become violent, tearing this country in half. Then you will have two nations instead of one: The Republic States of America; the Democratic States of America (or whatever their names would be). Then our economy would suffer too. We wouldn't be wiped from the planet, like Rome, we'd just be... well... different.

I think China would then become the super power, maybe.

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jfuh

My argument here first is that though we've lost influence in some areas, it's far from the disappearance of the US's role as a super power.
Also, we were not the lone super power between WWII and 9/11, for between WWII and 1990 there existed the USSR that was another super power.

As for Europe, I don't think Europe will be able to rise in influence ever again, at least not with it's current state. You can only have market reform to such an extent, however in the end you are all still separate sovereign nation states - not like the US or China a united whole entity - this is important because mind you of how weak Germany was before 1871 - everything changed after their unity. Today Europe is divided, and unless the entirety is united (highly unlikely) I don't think any European nation (or europe all together) will ever have the ability to become another major power again.
Now as for the "hyper power" and space domination, no offense, but I just don't see that happening in the near future - but who knows, we Americans are going up to colonize the moon.