Goodluck Jonathan Reelected President of Nigeria amid Violence

Goodluck Jonathan retains Nigerian presidency - CNN.com

Abuja, Nigeria (CNN) -- Incumbent Goodluck Jonathan is the winner of the presidential election in Nigeria, the chairman of Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission declared Monday.
"Goodluck E. Jonathan of PDP, having satisfied the requirements of the law and scored the highest number of votes, is hereby declared the winner," Chairman Attahiru Jega said.
He said the ruling People's Democratic Party won 22,495,187 of the 39,469,484 votes cast Saturday. That number far outstripped the votes for Muhammadu Buhari, of the Congress for Progressive Change, the main opposition party, which won 12,214,853.
To avoid a runoff, Jonathan needed at least a quarter of the vote in two-thirds of the 36 states and the capital. He won that amount in 31 states.

Despite widespread reports of violence, intimidation, and ballot stuffing it appears that irregularities are far less widespread than in past election and Jonathan has somewhat fairly won the election. Unfortunately, he still lacks legitimacy from many Muslims, who see him as a usurper. At the very least, he is the eventuality of a poorly though out power sharing scheme. The country has been under a tenuous agreement for several years where the President rotates between a Christian and Muslim. The agreement ostensibly created a modicum of stability for Nigeria's fourth attempt at democracy, but encouraged yet more corruption, a major source of conflict, in a country that is already one of the most corrupt countries in the world. It also is hazy on term limits. Previous President Umaru Yar'Adua, a Muslim from the middle of the country, died in 2010. Goodluck Jonathan, a Southern Christian, was the successor.

The major problem came when in the 2011 elections took place, and Jonathan decided to run again, as he had not completed a full term. Muslims took offense and worried about their future political power, a serious issue where a corrupt, very statist political economy steers economic goods toward favored ethnic groups. They have responded with violence. Jonathan has violently put down these kinds of riots before, but hopefully Nigeria can stay on its path toward liberalization. Nigeria has made great strides in the past 20 years, but it has a very long way to go.

DrunkenAsparagus said:

-- Nigeria has made great strides in the past 20 years, but it has a very long way to o.

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Although many Nigerians (including the Christians) speak fondly of the previous time Muhammadu Buhari and Idiagbon were in power, very few actually would wish to relive the anti-corruption and military discipline regime the two men imposed. Corrupt politicians were horse-whipped in the streets, Nigerian security went after those who tried to flee the country and the military entered private houses to inspect for cleanliness and order - if your house was untidy or your garden unkempt you were frog-jumped down the street and whipped if you couldn't keep it going.

Nigerians on the whole have voted for more of the same life they've had the last 20 years by voting for Jonathon, the elections were the fairest they have been (but not without huge corruption). Buhari was one of the best chances Nigeria had to deal with the endemic corruption that runs throughout society and at every level - too many people had too much to lose if they voted for Buhari.

What of the military and the muslims, as the article notes-there is a cyclic process where the Presidency rotates by religion but the military have always felt that the leadership (and thus the spoils of the oil industry) were theirs by right. Most of the top military are muslim - it will be interesting to see how long Jonathon survives and whether he has to buy military loyalty to stay at the top.