Climate Skeptics See 'Smoking Gun' in Researchers' Leaked E-Mails

Kernel Sanders · 11-26-09, 09:00 PM

From another thread

IPCC has a page that does a good job of explaining the Medieval Warm Period. The gist is that the warming was only pronounced in Europe, and only really present in the Northern Hemisphere. Globally temperatures varied as they tend to. A relative glut of data from Europe and a relative lack of data originating elsewhere makes the regional fluctuation appear to represent global climate when it does not.

Quote:

As with the "Little Ice Age", the posited "Medieval Warm Period" appears to have been less distinct, more moderate in amplitude, and somewhat different in timing at the hemispheric scale than is typically inferred for the conventionally-defined European epoch. The Northern Hemisphere mean temperature estimates of Jones et al. (1998), Mann et al. (1999), and Crowley and Lowery (2000) show temperatures from the 11th to 14th centuries to be about 0.2°C warmer than those from the 15th to 19th centuries, but rather below mid-20th century temperatures. The long-term hemispheric trend is best described as a modest and irregular cooling from AD 1000 to around 1850 to 1900, followed by an abrupt 20th century warming. Regional evidence is, however, quite variable. Crowley and Lowery (2000) show that western Greenland exhibited anomalous warmth locally only around AD 1000 (and to a lesser extent, around AD 1400), with quite cold conditions during the latter part of the 11th century, while Scandinavian summer temperatures appeared relatively warm only during the 11th and early 12th centuries. Crowley and Lowery (2000) find no evidence for warmth in the tropics. Regional evidence for medieval warmth elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere is so variable that eastern, yet not western, China appears to have been warm by 20th century standards from the 9th to 13th centuries. The 12th and 14th centuries appear to have been mainly cold in China (Wang et al., 1998a,b; Wang and Gong, 2000). The restricted evidence from the Southern Hemisphere, e.g., the Tasmanian tree-ring temperature reconstruction of Cook et al. (1999), shows no evidence for a distinct Medieval Warm Period.

Dav · 11-26-09, 09:08 PM

^I'll get back to you when you find a source more credible than the current IPCC.

The Medieval Warming Period was clearly not only in Europe, since Greenland went through the same thing.

EpicDude86 · 11-26-09, 09:11 PM

Would you believe me, The Global ~~Cooling~~...~~Warming~~...Climate Change Fairy?

Kernel Sanders · 11-26-09, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dav

^I'll get back to you when you find a source more credible than the current IPCC.

The IPCC page merely summarizes several studies. They cite each study as they draw from it. Regardless of your opinion of the IPCC, the sources are unrelated

Quote:

The Medieval Warming Period was clearly not only in Europe, since Greenland went through the same thing.

As I stated, it was most pronounced in Europe, but occurred in most of the Northern Hemisphere. Greenland is also mentioned specifically, making me question if you actually read the quote I posted.

Quote:

Crowley and Lowery (2000) show that western Greenland exhibited anomalous warmth locally only around AD 1000 (and to a lesser extent, around AD 1400), with quite cold conditions during the latter part of the 11th century, while Scandinavian summer temperatures appeared relatively warm only during the 11th and early 12th centuries.

Dav · 11-26-09, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kernel Sanders

The IPCC page merely summarizes several studies. They cite each study as they draw from it

One of those studies is the Mann one, which has been so discredited that citing it is enough to invalidate that page in my mind.

Quote:

As I stated, it was most pronounced in Europe, but occurred in most of the Northern Hemisphere. Greenland is also mentioned specifically, making me question if you actually read the quote I posted.

I admit I just skimmed through it, and must have missed where they mentioned Greenland.

EDIT: Also, with warming of that scale in the Northern Hemisphere, there would have to be pretty drastic cooling elsewhere to cancel it out if there was only a .2 degree increase overall, and they never said anything about cooling elsewhere, they just said there wasn't warming elsewhere.

Kernel Sanders · 11-26-09, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dav

One of those studies is the Mann one, which has been so discredited that citing it is enough to invalidate that page in my mind.

I admit I just skimmed through it, and must have missed where they mentioned Greenland.

The 1998 Mann et al paper was found to have significant weaknesses, but subsequent work and a congressional investigation found that their impacts are minimal and that the overall findings were solid. Additionally, the portion that I quoted does not draw from Mann 1998. Finally, your attempt to discredit a large body of scientific research by nature of being cited on the same webpage as Mann 1998 is ridiculous

Dav · 11-26-09, 10:34 PM

It's not that I'm automatically discrediting that scientific research; I just don't know about the other cited studies, and won't feel compelled to look into them until someone other than the IPCC mentions them.

Kernel Sanders · 11-26-09, 10:54 PM

What a horribly transparent attempt to avoid debate. Did you think there was even the slightest possibility that the IPCC is the only organization ever to have cited these papers?

This NOAA page includes every one of them
NOAA | NOAA Paleoclimatology | Climate Reconstructions

Gill · 11-27-09, 04:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaya'08

Consult the Google Earth webpage, even there satellites show the same thing. Conspiracy over?

Ahh yes, Google Earth, the imminent scientific source for climate information....

By the way, I hate to break this to you, but the ice extent in your first image shows MORE Arctic ice in 2008 than in 2007. Poor choice of images since it disproves your claim.

I prefer getting information from a REAL scientific source:

Antarctic set a modern record for ice extent last year, so I'm afraid your comments are completely wrong. Ice melt is at a 30 year low.

And yes, the global warming "conspiracy" IS over.

kaya'08 · 11-27-09, 05:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gill

Ahh yes, Google Earth, the imminent scientific source for climate information...

If you look at Google Image sattelite imagery from 2006 and 2008, and 2009, you too would notice the shrinking icecaps but your arrogance most likely prevents you from seeing this. Or are they in the conspiracy too?

Quote:

By the way, I hate to break this to you, but the ice extent in your first image shows MORE Arctic ice in 2008 than in 2007. Poor choice of images since it disproves your claim.

Actually i used the first image obtained from regmedia to disprove it using the images presented from a legitemate source, a scientific study conducted by seperate, private sector owned institutions.

A more recent study:

Also looking at Sattelite archives from NASA, i witnessed the exact same trend in melting, although last year it decreased at a record high with almost 13% of the entire ice of the North Pole falling off and melting in the sea.

Quote:

I prefer getting information from a REAL scientific source:

*picture*

Likewise:

Quote:

Antarctic set a modern record for ice extent last year, so I'm afraid your comments are completely wrong. Ice melt is at a 30 year low.

Wrong, im afraid.

Quote:

And yes, the global warming "conspiracy" IS over.

Quiet right.

11-26-09, 09:08 PM	#102
Dav ¿Por qué no te callas? Join Date: Mar 2009 Last Seen: Yesterday 04:03 PM Location: Northern Virginia Posts: 3,161 Thanks: 675 Thanked 1,048 Times in 646 Posts Lean: Slightly Conservative Gender:	Re: Climate Skeptics See 'Smoking Gun' in Researchers' Leaked E-Mails ^I'll get back to you when you find a source more credible than the current IPCC. The Medieval Warming Period was clearly not only in Europe, since Greenland went through the same thing.
	__________________ "You and I are told increasingly we have to choose between a left or right. Well I'd like to suggest there is no such thing as a left or right. There's only an up or down." - Ronald Reagan

11-26-09, 09:11 PM	#103
EpicDude86 Banned Join Date: Nov 2009 Last Seen: 12-28-09 04:07 PM Location: Epic Mountain Posts: 4,384 Thanks: 2,012 Thanked 821 Times in 615 Posts Gender:	Re: Climate Skeptics See 'Smoking Gun' in Researchers' Leaked E-Mails Would you believe me, The Global ~~Cooling~~...~~Warming~~...Climate Change Fairy?

11-26-09, 10:34 PM	#107
Dav ¿Por qué no te callas? Join Date: Mar 2009 Last Seen: Yesterday 04:03 PM Location: Northern Virginia Posts: 3,161 Thanks: 675 Thanked 1,048 Times in 646 Posts Lean: Slightly Conservative Gender:	Re: Climate Skeptics See 'Smoking Gun' in Researchers' Leaked E-Mails It's not that I'm automatically discrediting that scientific research; I just don't know about the other cited studies, and won't feel compelled to look into them until someone other than the IPCC mentions them.
	__________________ "You and I are told increasingly we have to choose between a left or right. Well I'd like to suggest there is no such thing as a left or right. There's only an up or down." - Ronald Reagan

11-26-09, 10:54 PM	#108
Kernel Sanders Norville Rogers Join Date: Jul 2008 Last Seen: Yesterday 02:36 PM Location: Pittsburgh, PA Posts: 3,380 Thanks: 2,160 Thanked 1,717 Times in 905 Posts Gender:	Re: Climate Skeptics See 'Smoking Gun' in Researchers' Leaked E-Mails What a horribly transparent attempt to avoid debate. Did you think there was even the slightest possibility that the IPCC is the only organization ever to have cited these papers? This NOAA page includes every one of them NOAA \| NOAA Paleoclimatology \| Climate Reconstructions

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